Great Mensa - Rose War Tracker

[Ekaterina Kalmyk]

There is no way that anyone can possibly believe that aircraft are not important to war. We literally just proved that aircraft are the only thing that matter in a war.

 

 

Damn straight, Skippy!*

 

*= I don't actually know that for certain, I just had to post this video.

[8mrgrim8]

Can confirm.

 

 

More like this is VE vs Guardian, round 4. None of these times has it been good for Guardian, either.

 

Confirmed, tired of dealing with VE's numbers

[durmij]

Agreed, just ask my navy. Or utter lack thereof. >_>

 

[Lu Xun]

@Bagel: Well, I'm not sure if you're just being dense or if this is a railroad. I would like to clarify two things; first, I have no beef with TOP and despite certain bad diplomatic decisions, I have the utmost respect for them and this is why you get an explanation. Second, tanks are a statistically valid proxy for aircraft due to R = .95. I have used tanks already, and for continuity's sake I will continue to use tanks. You can assume that the coalition with the more tanks also has more aircraft, and that tank ratios are roughly within 15% of aircraft ratios between the coalitions.

 

That said, I am overdue for including all factions as part of reinforcements.

 

Format:

 

Date

Coalition

Alliance Name Member Count / Average Score / Total Score / Percent Change

 

Total Member Count / Average Score / Total Score / Percent Change

Total Soldiers / Total Tanks

 

Mensynd vs Paracovenant

11:45 PM Server '16.Feb.7

 

Mensynd

 

The Syndicate 62 / 1,501.60 / 93,099.37 (-.3%)

The Knights Radiant 90 / 984.85 / 88,636.32 (-1.2%)

Black Knights 104 / 785.23 / 81,663.47 (-1.2%)

Seven Kingdoms 42 / 1,573.56 / 66,089.53 (-2.1%)

Mensa HQ 56 / 1,038.48 / 58,155.02 (-.2%)

Roz Wei 80 / 526.98 / 42,158.79 (-9.2%)

The Chola 51 / 589.30 / 30,054.08

Guardian 16 / 1,409.28 / 22,548.41 (-9.8%)

The Kings Parliament 29 / 716.93 / 20,792.24 (-13.6%)

The Coalition 9 / 1,631.44 / 14,682.95 (-0.5%)

 

Total 539 / 960.82 / 517,880.18 (+3.2%)

Total Soldiers 43,641,634 (+8.3%) / Total Tanks 2,435,660 (+.7%)

 

Paragon

 

Viridian Entente 109 / 1,234.28 / 134,536.11 (-3.1%)

Rose 80 / 1,054.25 / 84,339.94 (-10.2%)

Alpha 28 / 2,513.27 / 70,371.58 (+0.2%)

Arrgh 73 / 555.44 / 40,547.15 (+1%)

Phoenix 25 / 1164.90 / 29,122.38

The Light Federation 39 / 734.24 / 28,635.22 (-12.5%)

Odd Squad 43 / 607.28 / 26,113.07

North American Confederacy 27 / 868.65 / 23,453.47

Fark 25 / 906.50 / 22,662.61 (-12.1%)

Vanguard 20 / 904.84 / 18,096.88 (-1.5%)

Socialist Workers Front 27 / 509.30 / 13,751.17

Shuriken 36 / 269.79 / 9,712.38

Charming Friends 17 / 528.28 / 8,980.68 (-15.7%)

 

Total 549 / 929.55 / 510,322.64 (-6%)

Total Soldiers 32,401,656 (+29.9%) / Total Tanks 1,620,142 (+12.2%)

 

Tank ratio is 1.5:1 in favor of Mensynd. Implied aircraft ratio is 1.43-1.58.

[Lu Xun]

I'll provide aircraft figures if somehow tank ratio drops to 1.2 or so; around this range the implied aircraft ratio becomes sufficiently wide that a precise aircraft figure is useful.

 

As to what The Covenant is doing:

 

Format: Score / Soldiers / Tanks

Covenant "Reserves"

 

UPN: 166,095.41 / 13,205,921 (+1.7%) / 667,072 (+4.1%)

BoC: 63,452.51 (+.7%) / 4,384,806 (+.8%) / 215,898 (+3.0%)

DEIC: 55,808.46 (+2.7%) / 4,532,135 (+8.7%) / 138,138 (+15.0%)

 

Total 285,356.38 (+.7%) / 22,122,862 (+2.9%) / 1,021,108 (+5.2%)

 

If tC were to enter now, the implied aircraft ratio would be 1.14 - 1.03 in favor of Paracovenant.

 

tC, I think, has a bit of time to engage, and BoC and DEIC have more room to militarize.

[Crust]

Roz Wei 80 / 526.98 / 42,158.79 (-9.2%)

Guardian 16 / 1,409.28 / 22,548.41 (-9.8%)

The Kings Parliament 29 / 716.93 / 20,792.24 (-13.6%)

Rose 80 / 1,054.25 / 84,339.94 (-10.2%)

The Light Federation 39 / 734.24 / 28,635.22 (-12.5%)

Fark 25 / 906.50 / 22,662.61 (-12.1%)

Charming Friends 17 / 528.28 / 8,980.68 (-15.7%)

 

Are we all in the weakling club?

[Lu Xun]

Congratulations, you dragged bandwagoners and Guardian into the losing aisle despite their being on the winning side of the war. Next stop, The Coalition.

[Crust]

Weakling =/= losing

 

Your reading comprehension is truly abysmal

[Lu Xun]

Aside from "competing in the Special Olympics", reading comprehension is a standard Internet catchphrase.

 

If you want me to address your point directly, Rose can't be a weakling in the sense that they are or were a huge alliance; the loss list represents more who's getting focused. In a fair fight, though, I'd say that your combat performance suggests you're better than 30-40% of currently engaged combatants, and you're solidly 50th percentile when it comes to all alliances in the game; i.e, your first response to wartime wasn't to delete your nation, so you can't be that bad.

[Spite]

It doesn't work like that though. After the first day of fighting rose still had more tanks and planes than mensa but they were already out of the fight. It's not just about numbers it's about tactics

[Memph]

Congratulations, you dragged bandwagoners and Guardian into the losing aisle despite their being on the winning side of the war. Next stop, The Coalition.

Who are you expecting to declare on The Coalition? I don't think VE is capable of handling them and it's a stretch to The Covenant to find justification for hitting them. If anyone else hits them they'll get countered hard by The Syndicate.

[Avruch]

I'm telling you this only because you are TOP or ex-TOP, but because aircraft and tanks are highly correlated in most instances, and especially on a complete coalition level, having the figure for one can provide the number for the other, which, say, you can't do for soldiers, nukes, and ships.

 

Also, did you just say that aircraft are more important than all other factors in war, including the beneficent will of Dio Brando? I see Syndicate does not take its Mensa relations very seriously.

 

The Pearson's R for the will of Dio and military might is .999. This high correlation explains why our enemies dissolve so easily. 

[Lord Bagel]

 

 

@Bagel: Well, I'm not sure if you're just being dense or if this is a railroad. I would like to clarify two things; first, I have no beef with TOP and despite certain bad diplomatic decisions, I have the utmost respect for them and this is why you get an explanation. Second, tanks are a statistically valid proxy for aircraft due to R = .95. I have used tanks already, and for continuity's sake I will continue to use tanks. You can assume that the coalition with the more tanks also has more aircraft, and that tank ratios are roughly within 15% of aircraft ratios between the coalitions.

I'm not going to take this discussion to another game.

 

Tanks can act as a proxy yes. But air superiority removes half of a tanks potential strength. Meaning that an airstrike to achieve superiority effectively eliminates half of your opponents tanks. Followed up by a ground assault against the crippled army then establishes ground superiority cutting off 2/3 of the opponents aircraft. Now their planes are grounded and unable to defend the nation from relentless airstrikes. At this point in the war I could sell all my tanks and still dominate Rose because they have nothing left to combat my airforce. Tanks are nothing but a support unit for aircraft

[Wayne]

Please stop explaining how to win to him, others might actually read your posts and the light may suddenly flick on...

[Crust]

Please stop explaining how to win to him, others might actually read your posts and the light may suddenly flick on...

You already gave us enough tips, you're !@#$ed. Just you wait!!! 

[Lu Xun]

Look, I don't care and I have no idea whether or not aircraft are imba; they've been complained about in previous wars already, but according to the Wiki, tanks and soldiers can create ground control that can reduce aircraft effectiveness. Perhaps that is in error.

 

What I do care about is that tanks are correlated to aircraft; let's say, for instance, we associate a lot of cats with the relative absence of mice . That's correlation, and it's arguably causation, cats eat mice, lots of cats means that mice lasts a relatively short period of time.

 

Yet, even though an absence of mice does not imply the presence of cats, there is still a correlation. Sometimes there may be other reasons for the absence of mice, such as a heavy use of pesticides to kill mice. But if you compare it to the baseline case (there is a normal quantity of mice), if there are no mice, you have a greater expectation that there are a lot of cats.

 

The point of r = .95 is that tanks, to a great degree, imply the presence or absence of aircraft. If it is as you say, that losing air superiority means that tanks won't last long, the presence of tanks implies that air superiority has not yet been lost. It's not a 1:1 correlation, of course, but it's enough that tanks can be used as a proxy for the presence of aircraft, which is why I continue to use tanks in lieu of aircraft. Only if, say, UPN enters, and the ratio of aircraft come so close that it becomes impossible to infer aircraft numbers accurately from tanks alone, will I begin counting aircraft.

Edited February 9, 2016 by Inst

[Ayayay]

Only if, say, UPN enters,

tl;dr inst has purple fever

[Crust]

What I do care about is that tanks are correlated to aircraft; let's say, for instance, we associate a lot of cats with the relative absence of mice . That's correlation, and it's arguably causation, cats eat mice, lots of cats means that mice lasts a relatively short period of time.

 

This right here is the perfect example of how your thinking is wrong. Correlation does not prove causation. A lack of mice/rats in building where there's cat does not prove that the cats are the cause of the lack of rats/mice. There might be other reasons for that, such as sanitation, regulations, environment etc.

 

Same logic applies here. The statistics are suppose to show something. If you exclude an important part of the military, air planes, the statistics are worthless. You have nothing to prove that your assumption of how alliances build their armies is actually right. Your assumptions are just assumptions and when you then decide that a military force, that everyone else says is important, shouldn't be counted in it makes me wonder why you even bother? What's these numbers gonna show on it's own? 

 

I mean statistics that show that I have 20 fingers, but omit the fact that I only have one hand and one foot, is not gonna tell anyone jack shit.

[Longbowe]

I really don't understand why you're all having so much trouble comprehending what Inst is saying. Honestly, if you don't like how Inst does it then just compile the figures yourself and post them. Otherwise, keep up the good effort Inst.

[Lu Xun]

It appears my browser decided to eat my post, so I'll have to redo it.

 

Correlation does not imply causation is one of the most basic things you learn in statistics or science. However, I am not trying to say that tanks cause aircraft; I am trying to say that the presence of tanks is highly correlated to the presence of aircraft to the degree that if tanks exist, there is probably a certain amount of aircraft.

 

Statistics is not an exact science; it often attempts to use a partial sample to infer definite conclusions about a population at large, and as a consequence, it must consider its own propensity to error when sampling. It produces useful results, but because it's not precise, you can't simply use one datapoint to disprove an entire dataset.

 

I am not saying definitely that aircraft aren't imba or that air control leads to the presence of tanks. I am simply saying that tanks are correlated to aircraft at a certain level, and I feel confident enough to use tanks as a proxy for aircraft, even if aircraft are the independent variable that determines tanks as the dependent variable.

 

I acknowledge that at a certain level, using implied aircraft levels from tank levels becomes too imprecise to present concrete and useful results, and at that level I will begin to add direct measurement of aircraft levels.

[Memph]

It appears my browser decided to eat my post, so I'll have to redo it.

 

Correlation does not imply causation is one of the most basic things you learn in statistics or science. However, I am not trying to say that tanks cause aircraft; I am trying to say that the presence of tanks is highly correlated to the presence of aircraft to the degree that if tanks exist, there is probably a certain amount of aircraft.

 

Statistics is not an exact science; it often attempts to use a partial sample to infer definite conclusions about a population at large, and as a consequence, it must consider its own propensity to error when sampling. It produces useful results, but because it's not precise, you can't simply use one datapoint to disprove an entire dataset.

 

I am not saying definitely that aircraft aren't imba or that air control leads to the presence of tanks. I am simply saying that tanks are correlated to aircraft at a certain level, and I feel confident enough to use tanks as a proxy for aircraft, even if aircraft are the independent variable that determines tanks as the dependent variable.

 

I acknowledge that at a certain level, using implied aircraft levels from tank levels becomes too imprecise to present concrete and useful results, and at that level I will begin to add direct measurement of aircraft levels.

Still seems like it would have been better to include aircraft in the first place, and then use aircraft as a proxy for tanks, or just include counts for both. Also soldiers counts are almost meaningless. Maybe you should play the game and then you would have known about these things. 

[Lu Xun]

@Memph: right now, I already regret committing to this, so I get the feeling the reason Zoot or others haven't hijacked this position is because they want to condemn me to it. My trading hasn't gone well as of late, so I'm working on other ventures, and even then, I really cannot spare the time to trade barbs here, much less play the game itself (which would see me committed to it and probably rolled for laughs by so and so).

 

Format:

 

Date

Coalition

Alliance Name Member Count / Average Score / Total Score / Percent Change

 

Total Member Count / Average Score / Total Score / Percent Change

Total Soldiers / Total Tanks

 

Mensynd vs Paracovenant

11:29 PM Server '16.Feb.8

 

Mensynd

 

The Syndicate 61 / 1,482.07 / 90,406.28 (-2.9%)

The Knights Radiant 90 / 975.14 / 87,762.22 (-1.0%)

Black Knights 104 / 785.46 / 81,687.32(+0.0%)

Seven Kingdoms 42 / 1,559.70 / 65,507.27 (-0.9%)

Mensa HQ 56 / 1,026.65 / 57,492.29 (-1.1%)

Roz Wei 80 / 483.55 / 38,684.34 (-8.2%)

The Chola 51 / 589.85 / 30,082.58 (+0.0%)

Guardian 16 / 1,289.17 / 20,626.76 (-8.5%)

The Kings Parliament 29 / 688.36 / 19,962.33 (-4.0%)

The Coalition 9 / 1,623.93 / 14,615.40 (-0.5%)

 

Total 538 / 942.06 / 506,826.79 (-2.1%)

Total Soldiers 43,590,107 (-1%) / Total Tanks 2,408,747 (+1.1%) / Total Aircraft 241,996

 

Paracovenant

 

United Purple Nations 133 / 1241.12 / 165,069.47

Viridian Entente 109 / 1,234.28 / 132,012.08 (-1.9%)

Rose 80 / 988.67 / 79,093.55 (-6.2%)

Alpha 29 / 2,496.82 / 72,407.73 (+2.9%)

Arrgh 75 / 548.79 / 41,159.23 (+1.5%)

Phoenix 25 / 1161.24 / 29,031.07 (-0.3%)

The Light Federation 39 / 654.80 / 25,537.05 (-10.8%)

North American Confederacy 27 / 821.51 / 22,180.77 (-5.4%)

Fark 25 / 817.46 / 20,436.58 (-9.8%)

Vanguard 20 / 901.79 / 18,035.86 (-0.3%)

Socialist Workers Front 27 / 438.67 / 11,844.21 (-13.9%)

Shuriken 36 / 297.41 / 10,706.94 (+10.2%)

Charming Friends 17 / 441.79 / 7,510.37 (-16.4%)

 

Total 642 / 989.14 / 469,955.44 635,024.91 (-7.1%)

Total Soldiers 42,366,479 (+30.8%) / Total Tanks 2,246,705 (+38.7%) / Total Aircraft 231,426

Edited February 9, 2016 by Inst

[Ayayay]

Paragon

 

Viridian Entente 109 / 1,234.28 / 132,012.08 (-1.9%)

Rose 80 / 988.67 / 79,093.55 (-6.2%)

Alpha 29 / 2,496.82 / 72,407.73 (+2.9%)

Arrgh 75 / 548.79 / 41,159.23 (+1.5%)

Phoenix 25 / 1161.24 / 29,031.07 (-0.3%)

The Light Federation 39 / 654.80 / 25,537.05 (-10.8%)

North American Confederacy 27 / 821.51 / 22,180.77 (-5.4%)

Fark 25 / 817.46 / 20,436.58 (-9.8%)

Vanguard 20 / 901.79 / 18,035.86 (-0.3%)

Socialist Workers Front 27 / 438.67 / 11,844.21 (-13.9%)

Shuriken 36 / 297.41 / 10,706.94 (+10.2%)

Charming Friends 17 / 441.79 / 7,510.37 (-16.4%)

 

Total 509 / 923.29 / 469,955.44 (-7.1%)

Total Soldiers 29,382,455 (+9.3%) / Total Tanks 1,558,616 (+3.8%)

Is it just me or is something missing?

[Lu Xun]

Looks like you engaged while I was compiling stats. Thanks for coming, best of luck.

[Lu Xun]

As promised, I brought in the total aircraft count after the tank ratio dropped to the margin of error. Looks like Mensynd's still a bit ahead, but not by much. I need to sleep now. Good fighting.