[Sphere] Fate Lies in the Stars

[Prefonteen]

9 minutes ago, OttoVonBisbark said:

I don't see what the big deal is? I've yet to see a comparison shot of BW, MHC, and Ro$e, but at least from what I can tell they've not expanded their reach, but chosen to focus it more on an area they've consistently felt they were outgunned in: the upper tier.

My main concern is, and always has been, t$' approach to Grumpy. I think that Etat sums it up here:

If we look at this tiering:

HW has 49 nations in the C35+ tier, 30 of those are in Grumpy (10 in Guardian). Remove Grumpy from HW and they (HW) are no longer an upper tier threat, but adding Grumpy to either of the other sphere's then creates the same "consolidation." The only solution is that Grumpy take enormous risk in order to assuage these fears with little promise that undertaking this risk would do anything to remove the spotlight from them.

 

Lastly, at what ratio do we measure the downdeclare threat? I see a lot of talk about the 40+ tier being a critical arena. An 18 nation advantage in that tier (comparing HW and Ro$e) seems large, but a 19, 13, and 12 nation disadvantage in the 3 tiers below it seems to really negate that... It's really hard to get a grasp on what the actual impact of X number of X tier nations means, it seems to be largely personal intuition at the moment. I think the last war could've really shown this, but t$' decisions made it so that tier was uncontested after 1 day.

I think you touch on a few decent points. My personal view is that the GG combination hould, at the very least, split. But that's personal. If we take a step back to what has occurred here:
 

- t$ and Rose announce a treaty and slimmed down sphere which concentrates more on upper tier (while limiting its size to prevent a quack situation). It's stated in private channels (I think also here?) that this isn't necessarily a move directly aimed at grumpy.

(Note: t$ gov at least initially took that stance. I'm of the personal opinion grumpy is a threat by virtue of tiering)

- Individuals in Clock or HW: "THIS IS A HEGEMONY. QUACK 2.0. CONSOLIDATION! RO$E BAD" 
- t$/Rose counter with "Well actually, if you look at HW/Grumpy, we're now on equal footing."
- Individuals in Clock or HW: "SEE! THIS IS ALL ABOUT GRUMPY! YOU ARE CONSOLIDATING TOO! JUST LIKE QUACK. !@#$ YOU FOR HITTING GRUMPY IN NPOFT. T$ IS ALWAYS TOXIC"

----> Insert t$ getting pissy.

Again, my observation. I agree that our tiering is a non-issue because the sphere was kept slim enough. Anyone who blabbers about our size can eat my snake.

 

[Sweeeeet Ronny D]

13 minutes ago, Prefonteen said:

(Note: t$ gov at least initially took that stance. I'm of the personal opinion grumpy is a threat by virtue of tiering)

Friend Partisan, I could never be a threat to you.  I dont believe I have ever attacked an alliance you have been a part of. (if only the same were true the other way, but I digress)

[Prefonteen]

30 minutes ago, Sweeeeet Ronny D said:

Friend Partisan, I could never be a threat to you.  I dont believe I have ever attacked an alliance you have been a part of. (if only the same were true the other way, but I digress)

Friend Ronny, I never made a personal, direct declaration of war against you while leading t$. I do not think this war is between you and I. We are friends.

As a friend, I fundamentally disagree with the way you have lined up your whale toys however. That's okay. I'm not mad, just disappointed.

 

EDIT: Except for that one time a long time ago. Maybe. I don't remember all too well. You did attack me while you were in VE as well though, and tried to demand my resignation. Let's call it even friend!

Edited March 14, 2022 by Prefonteen

[Sweeeeet Ronny D]

11 minutes ago, Prefonteen said:

EDIT: Except for that one time a long time ago. Maybe. I don't remember all too well. You did attack me while you were in VE as well though, and tried to demand my resignation. Let's call it even friend!

I was the military guy back then, those decisions were not up to me.  We didn't become true friends till our grumpy/hogwarts days.

Edited March 14, 2022 by Sweeeeet Ronny D

[Prefonteen]

5 minutes ago, Sweeeeet Ronny D said:

I was the military guy back then, those decisions were not up to me.  We didn't become friends till our grumpy/hogwarts days.

Those were good days.  Remember that time I defended you from Sparta aggression friend? You were like "help help friend Partisan im being rolled help!" and I, all brazenly looking in my daft cape charged upon thine foes in a blaze of heroic rage. You thanked me for my troubles and told me if ever I felt the need to call a favor, I need only ring.

 

 

 

 

Ring ring friend ronny! The favour is to cut TKR and Guardian!  Checkmate!

[Sweeeeet Ronny D]

1 hour ago, Prefonteen said:

Ring ring friend ronny! The favour is to cut TKR and Guardian!  Checkmate!

Where do i go friend? are you going to protect a grumpy with no friends?

1 hour ago, Prefonteen said:

Those were good days.  Remember that time I defended you from Sparta aggression friend? You were like "help help friend Partisan im being rolled help!" and I, all brazenly looking in my daft cape charged upon thine foes in a blaze of heroic rage. You thanked me for my troubles and told me if ever I felt the need to call a favor, I need only ring.

ah the paperless days, those were the days, I got rolled for doing that. 

[Hodor]

4 hours ago, Prefonteen said:

I think you touch on a few decent points. My personal view is that the GG combination hould, at the very least, split. But that's personal.

I don't think it's personal to you, I think a number of people in t$ gov would put this at the top of their P&W wish lists.

What isn't addressed here is my point that, no matter where Grumpy goes, they'll transform their new home into an upper tier powerhouse. So really they either go paperless or go to The Johnsons.

1 hour ago, Sweeeeet Ronny D said:

Where do i go friend? are you going to protect a grumpy with no friends?

Imagine, t$ protecting a lone Grumpy.

And finally, both you and Ronny have attacked me together, so you both should just kiss, make up, and start trying to make me happy to make up for it.

Edited March 14, 2022 by OttoVonBisbark

[Ramona]

Wordle 269 3/6

 

🟨🟨⬛🟨🟨

🟩🟩⬛⬛🟨

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

[Prefontaine]

Lets look at some numbers by average and total score for the top 4 alliances in each sphere.

TKR: 676k, 4.05k
TI: 509k, 3.9k
Guardian: 298k, 6.6k
GoB: 290k, 8.8k
Total Strength: 1773k
Average Average: 5.83k

 

Rose: 907k Strength, 3.9K average
tS: 511k Strength, 3.9k average
HS: 116k Strength, 3.4k average
ASM: 111k Strength, 3.4k average
Total Strength: 1645k
Average Average: 3.65k

 

Cataclysm: 429k, 4.25k
Eclipse: 409k, 4.2k
Weeb: 255k, 3.45k
Serp: 235k, 4.8k
Total Strength: 1328k
Average Average: 4.175k

 

BS: 341k, 2.7k
tCW: 339k, 4.6k
Carth: 240k, 3.1k
Legion: 235k, 3.05k
Total Strength: 1155k
Average Average: 3.35k

 

Just looking at the top 4 alliances in each sphere, which Ro$e has the least depth in post top-4, HW is still larger in both total and average. Obviously current military levels impact that, but it gives you a small barometer. I might be one of the crazy people not in Ro$e that doesn't see this combination as a terrible thing, but I'm my own brand of crazy.

Rose and tS shed some allies before combining, if they wanted to be the biggest blob, they wouldn't have done that. Barring HS these are fresh moves in a way. Major alliances cutting some ties and establishing new ones. I've long been against Guardian and GoB being allied, simply for the fact that it's been that way forever. I don't like seeing treaties stick forever, for whatever reasons, though the most common reason seems to be general apathy for the effort. 

I think this move allows for the possibility of more politics routes versus the forcing towards bi-polarity. They've not created a blob that is too powerful. If other spheres overreact, specifically HW, and try to grow their blob simply to further out-grow Ro$e then that's a problem, but it's not Ro$e's fault. 

Side note, Yarr is no longer counted in Ro$e's numbers? I remember in past metrics Yarr was counted. Guess you only add them when it helps your narrative! Anyway, hopefully we see some interesting things come from these moves.

[Adrienne]

12 minutes ago, Prefontaine said:

~stuff~

You should be looking at tiering and city counts, not scores, when comparing spheres. Scores are not a particularly useful metric for strength. Also, out of curiosity, who is that Yarr bit directed at?

[Prefontaine]

12 minutes ago, Adrienne said:

You should be looking at tiering and city counts, not scores, when comparing spheres. Scores are not a particularly useful metric for strength. Also, out of curiosity, who is that Yarr bit directed at?

People who fought Rose in the past and lumped Yarr into stats, but now may be allied to Rose and are not

I didn't find the need to post the tiering breakdown as it already has been posted and I don't see the breakdown being a problem. Are they strong from C27-C39? Yeah, they have an edge but not an overbearing one. If you combine the last 4 sections into groups of two you get 

Ro$e 27-34: 141
HW 27-34: 116

Ro$e 35+: 50
HW 35+: 49

[Micchan]

[Sweeeeet Ronny D]

3 hours ago, Prefontaine said:

Lets look at some numbers by average and total score for the top 4 alliances in each sphere.

TKR: 676k, 4.05k
TI: 509k, 3.9k
Guardian: 298k, 6.6k
GoB: 290k, 8.8k
Total Strength: 1773k
Average Average: 5.83k

 

Rose: 907k Strength, 3.9K average
tS: 511k Strength, 3.9k average
HS: 116k Strength, 3.4k average
ASM: 111k Strength, 3.4k average
Total Strength: 1645k
Average Average: 3.65k

 

Cataclysm: 429k, 4.25k
Eclipse: 409k, 4.2k
Weeb: 255k, 3.45k
Serp: 235k, 4.8k
Total Strength: 1328k
Average Average: 4.175k

 

BS: 341k, 2.7k
tCW: 339k, 4.6k
Carth: 240k, 3.1k
Legion: 235k, 3.05k
Total Strength: 1155k
Average Average: 3.35k

Don't forget tS and Eclipse's side alliances who they have both admitted are part of their alliance even tho they are on a different AA, It really bumps up their membership numbers and a truer measure of strength.

[Uranato]

Change my mind, salted popcorn is the best cultural food of Orbis

[Charles Bolivar]

Where is a horsecock wall of text when you need it?

[Prefonteen]

1 hour ago, Vexz said:

I'm gonna go right out of the gate and talk about the bipolarity spin here that you're trying to push. I can understand why certain parties in CB and others can be concerned about such a thing, and I'd like to simply say that 2 parties having a lead in size does not equate to bipolarity. In the past years since the dissolve of Quack, there has usually been some parties with a step ahead of others. We had BW and Oasis, BW and HW, and we had Clock and HW but we still had other parties in the mix as we do now. I do understand why this move can be frightening to other parties in the idea of bipolarity being the future but like Pre pointed out, other parties are still given wiggle room to grow and compete, which so far seems to be the case. 

With that aside, you seem to put huge emphasis on our move dragging, or better yet said "dangerous slide" back towards bipolarity. If I'm not mistaken bipolarity means 2 parties correct? That other party would be HW correct. Now let me understand this, us making a move that betters our footing in competing is the trigger for the return back to bipolarity? Not the entity that has spent for months now making moves to secure its overall tiering and still after the fact that the #1 & 3 alliance creating a sphere together, is still finding itself to be a major contender in the grand schemes of things?

Like I get jumping on the hate train is easy points but don't be oblivious. TKR spent so much time after signing HedgeMoney saying they did it because they found themselves in a defenseless position and were scared of that position leading them to be rolled (TKRsphere was relatively the size of Rosesphere at that time). Yet, the very moment you gained further security of impending attacks to your security; you used your better footing in tiering to go on the offensive on a smaller party. It doesn't end there, TKR was not satisfied with the size of HW and decided to add TI to what they claim was a move to further secure its mid-tier that TKR alleged was lacking and constantly being rolled. I won't deny that HW might've not had the best mid-tier compared to other spheres, but they did sure have one of most notable tiering overall compared to the rest. Shortly after this time spent saying this move was for the security of your mid-tier, you once more went on the offensive. Now for a party that has spent quite some time not caring much about their size for the sake of security, yet being so keen to go on the offensive when having the advantage, you now wish to put so much care of people not making moves in the name of security? Not to mention the simple hysteria you were having prior to our recent move against Clock and their rivaling size to your sphere, but I guess our move put a halt to that venture seeing your feelers on Rose to try to see if we at the very least could be neutral about it, has now went out the window because now we're somehow a threat to you

I recommended all readers to let this post sink in. It outlines clearly the dissonance that exists in the rationales of some parties.

 

The bolded part in particular reveals a modus operandi that is completely misaligned with the projected ideologies and the stated outrage of these parties.

 

 

 

[Raphael]

I'm really not sure why we keep hammering the same incorrect lines about Hollywood in an attempt to give justification for the bloc that definitely didn't form because of Hollywood.

 

We had a huge chunk of the lower/mid tier leave the bloc. I know it's so hard to remember but they're now that other scary bloc that you keep referring to: Clock.

TI was signed for a multitude of reasons, one of which being they shored up our middle and lower tiers to then be comparable to anyone else's I'm pretty sure.

 

So can actually see why the claims of "backwards step/slide" to bipolarity are being thrown out there. At a certain point, if everyone keeps one-upping each other, we will eventually lose the ability to say there are multiple spheres when said other spheres can't do anything other than contribute mildly to the coalitions of the larger groups.

Edited March 15, 2022 by roberts

[BigMorf]

2 hours ago, Vexz said:

I'm gonna go right out of the gate and talk about the bipolarity spin here that you're trying to push. I can understand why certain parties in CB and others can be concerned about such a thing, and I'd like to simply say that 2 parties having a lead in size does not equate to bipolarity. In the past years since the dissolve of Quack, there has usually been some parties with a step ahead of others. We had BW and Oasis, BW and HW, and we had Clock and HW but we still had other parties in the mix as we do now. I do understand why this move can be frightening to other parties in the idea of bipolarity being the future but like Pre pointed out, other parties are still given wiggle room to grow and compete, which so far seems to be the case. 

With that aside, you seem to put huge emphasis on our move dragging, or better yet said "dangerous slide" back towards bipolarity. If I'm not mistaken bipolarity means 2 parties correct? That other party would be HW correct. Now let me understand this, us making a move that betters our footing in competing is the trigger for the return back to bipolarity? Not the entity that has spent for months now making moves to secure its overall tiering and still after the fact that the #1 & 3 alliance creating a sphere together, is still finding itself to be a major contender in the grand schemes of things?

Like I get jumping on the hate train is easy points but don't be oblivious. TKR spent so much time after signing HedgeMoney saying they did it because they found themselves in a defenseless position and were scared of that position leading them to be rolled (TKRsphere was relatively the size of Rosesphere at that time). Yet, the very moment you gained further security of impending attacks to your security; you used your better footing in tiering to go on the offensive on a smaller party. It doesn't end there, TKR was not satisfied with the size of HW and decided to add TI to what they claim was a move to further secure its mid-tier that TKR alleged was lacking and constantly being rolled. I won't deny that HW might've not had the best mid-tier compared to other spheres, but they did sure have one of most notable tiering overall compared to the rest. Shortly after this time spent saying this move was for the security of your mid-tier, you once more went on the offensive. Now for a party that has spent quite some time not caring much about their size for the sake of security, yet being so keen to go on the offensive when having the advantage, you now wish to put so much care of people not making moves in the name of security? Not to mention the simple hysteria you were having prior to our recent move against Clock and their rivaling size to your sphere, but I guess our move put a halt to that venture seeing your feelers on Rose to try to see if we at the very least could be neutral about it, has now went out the window because now we're somehow a threat to you.

I don't know what you are talking about at the end there. I'd love some clarification on that.

But as to the greater point of this post I think at least. Again, Rose and The Syndicate have been two of the principle drivers of politics and intrigue in this game. The comments on bipolarity are referring not to the size of the sphere/tiering, but on the amount of political intrigue and force now present in one sphere. Where as before that influence and political force was spread into two differing spheres. 

As Roberts said below, The Immortals helped us massively with our tiering problems in the lower and mid tier. Where we were getting massively beaten by Blackwater, and also beaten by Clock at the time. It's also quite ironic that Rose is hitting us for signing the Immortals here, when you all were desperately pursuing Immortals at the exact same time that we were and wanted to have them join Rosesphere, which again would've crushed our lower and mid tiers by another sphere. Funny how it's only such a bad thing for the game because you all didn't get to sign them. 

I also find it odd that you decided to leave off Rosesphere/Mile High Club as as sphere that was comparable to Clock/Hollywood/Bwater... Because ya'll were. 

Edited March 15, 2022 by BigMorf

[Who Me]

3 hours ago, Vexz said:

Like I get jumping on the hate train is easy points but don't be oblivious. TKR spent so much time after signing HedgeMoney saying they did it because they found themselves in a defenseless position and were scared of that position leading them to be rolled (TKRsphere was relatively the size of Rosesphere at that time). Yet, the very moment you gained further security of impending attacks to your security; you used your better footing in tiering to go on the offensive on a smaller party.

Yeah, I can't imagine why such a thing would happen. Perhaps you might have an idea why this occurred?

[Micchan]

[Prefonteen]

2 hours ago, roberts said:

I'm really not sure why we keep hammering the same incorrect lines about Hollywood in an attempt to give justification for the bloc that definitely didn't form because of Hollywood.

 

We had a huge chunk of the lower/mid tier leave the bloc. I know it's so hard to remember but they're now that other scary bloc that you keep referring to: Clock.

TI was signed for a multitude of reasons, one of which being they shored up our middle and lower tiers to then be comparable to anyone else's I'm pretty sure.

 

So can actually see why the claims of "backwards step/slide" to bipolarity are being thrown out there. At a certain point, if everyone keeps one-upping each other, we will eventually lose the ability to say there are multiple spheres when said other spheres can't do anything other than contribute mildly to the coalitions of the larger groups.

"You can't match our upper tier because that's killing dynamism. How dare you not sit there and let me wave my whalepeen around in the name of glorious intrigue"

[Shiho Nishizumi]

2 hours ago, BigMorf said:

Again, Rose and The Syndicate have been two of the principle drivers of politics and intrigue in this game. The comments on bipolarity are referring not to the size of the sphere/tiering, but on the amount of political intrigue and force now present in one sphere. Where as before that influence and political force was spread into two differing spheres. 

So it's not a tilt towards bipolarity in the sense of tiering and sphere size. It's a tilt towards that in the sense of concentration of considerable political players...

...when both HW and CB have two of such players themselves, as Vemek highlighted.

Are all of those from one of the trifecta you've mentioned? No. They are nonetheless significant actors who are able to compete with those older entities. To their credit, I might add.

As such, I struggle to see your point when it's not about tiering and when having a pair of major players in one sphere seems to be the norm rather than the exception.

[Adrienne]

17 minutes ago, Vexz said:

MHC was an attempt at revitalizing our sphere morale after a recent loss and the overwhelming tiering advantage of other spheres. However, once again, we still lacked in the most critical tier. Due to the merger that resulted in Serpentis, there was conflict within our sphere that ended up in the loss of VooDoo, an important alliance for our sphere viability. Furthermore, the loss of VooDoo was also a hit to morale, and at that point, a fresh start was not so farfetched.

Your new bloc existed for what? 2 months? And through zero wars? And you were so demoralized by one alliance leaving, you felt the need to start over? That's the best argument I've heard for why Rose couldn't be considered competitive. Congrats.

[BigMorf]

36 minutes ago, Vexz said:

To your last point here, I do agree that if people spend time to just carelessly grow in size, then we end up moving closer to bipolarity, but our move isn't to get all the alliances possible. I get what you're saying in that last paragraph, but I think Pre put it best in one of his posts above.

I'm not sure what exact clarification you're soothing for outside of the fact that there were concerns in regards to Clock. Are we just gonna ignore TKR exists as a main driver as well or are you trying to say t$ and Rose are some of them, either way I've also heard people complain that alliances like Rose or T$ keep others from going out and doing their thing, as they'd end up just being followers to us and nothing more. This move ended up with us having to lose some ties to ensure we didn't end up making a huge sphere, and also changed the political dynamic of the usual Rose v t$ that has been consisted in this game for quite sometime. If you wish to claim the bipolarity issue lies on the political power that's fine, but the simple fact that after t$ and Rose allied up we wound up with the claims of a possible return to bipolarity is more than just political power seeing HW finds itself on the other end of that conversation. Still crazy to think that two main drivers for the game allying with one another is at best on the same level of HW that has been around for much longer. 

Funny to mention Rose wishing to ally TI has the same level of HW wishing to ally TI. Rosesphere at the time lacked mid tier and therefore that TI tie was viable, but we also lacked high tier something that HW did not. To sit here and say well Rose wanted to ally TI so it would be just as bad is hilarious when considering that Rosesphere was not the same size as HW, but smaller. I acknowledge that HW may have not had the best mid tier compared to others but did have advantages elsewhere, so while you can claim HW lacked mid tier compared to Clock and BW, HW had and still has the most dominant upper tier in the game, and upper tier dominance has a domino effect in the rest of the war. It is far harder to drag down a single c40+ nation than it is to bring down multiple mid-tier nations, so yeah us signing TI would have bolstered our mid-tier but we still would have been lacking the most critical tier in the game. 

MHC was an attempt at revitalizing our sphere morale after a recent loss and the overwhelming tiering advantage of other spheres. However, once again, we still lacked in the most critical tier. Due to the merger that resulted in Serpentis, there was conflict within our sphere that ended up in the loss of VooDoo, an important alliance for our sphere viability. Furthermore, the loss of VooDoo was also a hit to morale, and at that point, a fresh start was not so farfetched.

Here are some sheets for visuals:

On your first point, re the concern about Clock block. If you are referring to the set of conversations had with Harry and then Luci and Harry... That concern was about Clock's aggressive nature. They had hit Oasis with Blackwater after the entire militarization of Cata and HoF, and our (right) expectation was that after hitting Oasis/Mysinc was that Cata was going to chain and hit either Hollywood or Rose sphere. We were rightfully concerned about that, but wasn't sure on whom was getting hit. You all lost that lottery unfortunately, but we thought we'd be eating that blitz up until it happened. There were grounds for concern. 

I have never once suggested that TKR is not one of the main drivers of politics. We know we are, and we acknowledge and embrace that role. We consider ourselves as one of the three principle drivers (TKR, t$, and Rose). Cataclysm/Eclipse as a duo is rapidly becoming a fourth driver. But this new block placed two of those principle drivers into the same sphere. No one in this newest sphere has a history of being a political driver, though I do agree with the sentiment that they now have a chance to spread their wings. It's my hope that they do become a political driver. 

Hollywood knows it's a political force, and that's why we consciously make the choices that we often do. Outside of the acquisition of Immortals, it is the only alliance we've brought into the sphere that wasn't a protectorate since our inception as a sphere. We've turned down multiple offers from quality alliances to join our sphere because we've been conscious of size concerns. We don't want to slide the game away from multipolarity. 

As for the points in this thread about Immortals. I think the context of the time is important to note. Oasis was imploding. You had just signed the Wei which you have conveniently neglected to leave off of your chart here. Clock had just signed IKEA which is also not on the charts. Oasis was dying and we had no idea where TPF, Immortals, UPN, Dark Brotherhood etc would land. Our noted deficit in the mid tier and lower tiers was getting worse, especially with you actively courting Immortals and us unsure of where other people were going to land. 

 

[Adrienne]

1 minute ago, Vexz said:

Hi there hun, I did say that there was conflict within our sphere that ended up in the loss of VooDoo. It wasn't as simple as VooDoo leaving and us being so heartbroken that we needed to get over them by sleeping with t$ though lol. Bad tastes were left in various people's mouths after arguments, I'd imagine. You conveniently chose to simplify that from your high perch in the consolidated high tier. Congrats.

True that the bloc was short-lived and didn't face external conflicts, but better to salvage something that wasn't working than to lead it to a painful death.

I expected better for a clap back, Vexz. Using that tired old narrative that wasn't even relevant to what we were talking about was uninspired. I did appreciate the sex joke about t$ though. I was rather sad to have realized I missed out on a rather spectacular one. Mile High Club... prematurely ending... I'll let you figure it out 😘