Remove NS score for spies

[Sweeeeet Ronny D]

It seems nowadays everyone has bots that can tell people within 1-2 spies every single person's spy count.  I know our bloc can do it, I know Rose can do it, I'm pretty sure all the major players can do it.  This seems like cheating to me, you shouldn't be able to know how many spies a person has it goes against the intent of spies. 

Can we please make spies worth 0 NS so that the bots cant track it, I assume that is how they do it?

(man this one isn't even self serving, it probably hurts me in the long run)

[dtc justice]

Tbf, spies are with 0 ns

[BelgiumFury]

55 minutes ago, Sweeeeet Ronny D said:

It seems nowadays everyone has bots that can tell people within 1-2 spies every single person's spy count.  I know our bloc can do it, I know Rose can do it, I'm pretty sure all the major players can do it.  This seems like cheating to me, you shouldn't be able to know how many spies a person has it goes against the intent of spies. 

Can we please make spies worth 0 NS so that the bots cant track it, I assume that is how they do it?

(man this one isn't even self serving, it probably hurts me in the long run)

 Spies do not add any warscore iirc.

Edited June 6, 2021 by BelgiumFury

[TRM]

Honestly, we should be able to track spies, if we put in the extra work. It gives the game another dimension, and make it more complex/interesting. 

[Sweeeeet Ronny D]

So it’s been brought to my attention that is not how people figure out the spy count.   I don’t find it interesting or complex.  It’s you have one guy in your block that knows how to program, and now you know what everyone’s spy count is.  At this point, you might as well post spy numbers on the nation page at least then it would be fair.

[Dr Rush]

Not really, at least currently it requires competent internal communication to distribute the info. Although the entire spy system is scuffed. Same issue as the war system in general; mechanics are structured as 1 vs 1 but its actually played 1000 vs 1000.

[Guest Zephyr]

I agree, it's silly. Have a programmer on your side and you have big advantages, extending beyond just the spy game. It's basically a requirement that you get a programmer or employ their services (bot) if you want to have a competitively well organised major alliance else you're disadvantaged and your workload is a lot more tedious.

I don't know how it's done, because everyone that can program a spy checking bot keeps their lips tightly sealed, but I suspect they use the spy attack screen with various inputs and clever maths based on the returned chance of success to determine the spy counts. If that's the case, Alex could turn off the returned value and see if the bots can still work their magic. I mean, if it's not that, they'd have to be either using stolen API keys or compiling data from spy reports collected from members and allies (and I'm pretty sure I've seen these bots work without being in spy report channels, so...). I don't see how else it could be done, but I'm also not clever enough to do it myself 😝

[Dream]

Just so you know, spies don't actually affect the nation score. Most bots calculate spy count by success rate in an espionage lol. I don't think hiding the count would even be possible. Also its not just bots, if you want you can calculate it yourself, it isn't hard

[Isjaki]

Several individuals have actually studied programming just so they can play this game better. Assuming you have access to the internet, you have the same resources as the rest of them. You can try to learn coding too, this game doesn't require very complicated coding.

Calculating spy counts doesn't even require programming to begin with, it can be done manually.

[zigbigadorlou]

1 hour ago, Isjaki said:

Several individuals have actually studied programming just so they can play this game better. Assuming you have access to the internet, you have the same resources as the rest of them. You can try to learn coding too, this game doesn't require very complicated coding.

Calculating spy counts doesn't even require programming to begin with, it can be done manually.

What should those of us with day jobs do?

I also don't think it should be doable even manually. That's the whole point of the "gather intelligence" button that people don't use anymore.

13 hours ago, Sweeeeet Ronny D said:

Can we please make spies worth 0 NS so that the bots cant track it, I assume that is how they do it?

Sheepy actually "fixed" the ability to figure it out by changing the predicted success rate from every 25% to >50% and <50%. This exploit has been around since the beginning of spies, and has been utilized since at least Knightfall, I believe. Afaik, sheepy's stance is that he doesn't want to completely get rid of the success rate metric, so it will probably never get fixed. 

[Artifex]

So the argument went from, "WAH, THINK ABOUT THE PEOPLE WHO CAN'T DO BASIC MATHEMATICS. MAKE IT SO NO ONE SMARTER THAN ME CAN PLAY THE GAME BETTER THAN ME. WAH."

 

To, "WAH, THINK ABOUT THE ALLIANCES THAT WON'T WORK TOGETHER OR SHARE INFORMATION. HAND ME EVERYTHING ON A SILVER PLATTER. WAH."

 

Very compelling. 

[Prophet of Profit]

13 minutes ago, zigbigadorlou said:

What should those of us with day jobs do?

I also don't think it should be doable even manually. That's the whole point of the "gather intelligence" button that people don't use anymore.

You have e404, TKR, CoTL, and TO as allies. All of which I know for sure have spy tech.

This may seem like a wild suggestion, but maybe communicate with them?

15 minutes ago, zigbigadorlou said:

Sheepy actually "fixed" the ability to figure it out by changing the predicted success rate from every 25% to >50% and <50%. This exploit has been around since the beginning of spies, and has been utilized since at least Knightfall, I believe. Afaik, sheepy's stance is that he doesn't want to completely get rid of the success rate metric, so it will probably never get fixed. 

Ironically he just made more of an advantage for people with tech by doing this. Used to you could really easily train folks to manually find spy count. Now it's slightly more complex.

[Majima Goro]

@Sweeeeet Ronny D
Aight, I'll make this fair game for all of Orbis telling everyone how to calculate spies for any individual.

First, we need to understand that when calculating spies, we approach it as an inequality. While the formula for odds can quiet easily be found here, using it only is going to be troublesome. Since the odds are shown as Greater than 50% and Less than 50%, we need to use this as an inequality equation as:

Final Odds > 50% , Final Odds < 50%

where

Final Odds = (Safety Level * 25 + ( Your Spies * 100 / (( Enemy Spies * 3 ) + 1 )))/Modifier

As you can see, there are a lot of variables out there which you can find value from in the link provided. 

Lets set the odds with these values:

Safety Level = 1
Modifier = 1

The equation now reduces to

Final Odds = 25 + ( Your Spies * 100 / (( Enemy Spies * 3 ) + 1 ))

We are hence left with only two variables which are Your Spies and Enemy Spies

If we fix final odds at 50, we get something like this:

50 = 25 + ( Your Spies * 100 / (( Enemy Spies * 3 ) + 1 ))

We can solve it as:

y = (4x -1)/3

where

y = Enemy Spies
x = Your Spies

As you can see, this is the equation of a line, meaning it has infinite solutions.
But we are only interested in finding values of y between 0 to 60(since 0 is the max spies your enemy can have, 60 is the maximum they can have).

To do this, we fix x and then solve for y. This may or may not give you an integer answer but the number you get is pretty much close to what spies your enemy has.
To fix the value of x, we use the value of Your Spies for which the odds just jump from Greater than 50% to Less than 50% or vice versa.

Let's take an example for this:

Putting x = 10, 15, 4, 8, 25 and solving the equation: y = (4x -1)/3, we get
Y = 13, 16.67(17), 5, 10.33(11), 33

Now you might ask me why we get decimals for spy values. The answer is that we assume a 50% odd at times where the odd might actually be 55% or 75% or 45%. 
You can fix these errors using trial and error methods and such but that's that. 

Also, this equation doesn't take into account the modifiers to odds due to special policies like Covert or Arcane.

Anyway, I hope this helps Orbis by making the game more fair for everyone unless you suck at maths.

If you liked the explanation, please consider donating to BABAI WHALE FUND to turn BABAI into a whale!
 

[Mohammad]

If you can calculate spies without doing "gather intel", whats the goddam point?? 

[Duck Jesus]

1 hour ago, Mohammad.badawy4 said:

If you can calculate spies without doing "gather intel", whats the goddam point?? 

You successfully gathered intelligence about Ottoman Empire. Your spies discovered that Ottoman Empire has 0 spies, $0, 0 coal, 0 oil, 0 uranium, 0 lead, 0 iron, 0 bauxite, 0 gasoline, 0 munitions, 0 steel, 0 aluminum, and 0 food. Your agents were able to operate undetected. The operation cost you $-18,186.53 and -5 of your spies were captured and executed.

[Sweeeeet Ronny D]

It feels like its against the spirit of the game, and yes adam we have the ability to do it too, its one of the reasons it took the other side so long to wipe us out of spies, even tho they have more than twice our number. 

To me it feels like cheating, and I dont like it. 

[EliteCanada]

8 hours ago, zigbigadorlou said:

Sheepy actually "fixed" the ability to figure it out by changing the predicted success rate from every 25% to >50% and <50%. This exploit has been around since the beginning of spies, and has been utilized since at least Knightfall, I believe. Afaik, sheepy's stance is that he doesn't want to completely get rid of the success rate metric, so it will probably never get fixed. 

This is the point that Malleator and Adam seem to be ignoring for whatever reason. Clearly being able to figure out spy counts is against the spirit of the game, especially if this is the reason why predicted success rate was changed to being >50 or <50 percent. 

Edited June 6, 2021 by EliteCanada

[Polar Bear ArcticExplorer]

8 hours ago, Majima Goro said:

@Sweeeeet Ronny D
Aight, I'll make this fair game for all of Orbis telling everyone how to calculate spies for any individual.

First, we need to understand that when calculating spies, we approach it as an inequality. While the formula for odds can quiet easily be found here, using it only is going to be troublesome. Since the odds are shown as Greater than 50% and Less than 50%, we need to use this as an inequality equation as:

Final Odds > 50% , Final Odds < 50%

where

Final Odds = (Safety Level * 25 + ( Your Spies * 100 / (( Enemy Spies * 3 ) + 1 )))/Modifier

As you can see, there are a lot of variables out there which you can find value from in the link provided. 

Lets set the odds with these values:

Safety Level = 1
Modifier = 1

The equation now reduces to

Final Odds = 25 + ( Your Spies * 100 / (( Enemy Spies * 3 ) + 1 ))

We are hence left with only two variables which are Your Spies and Enemy Spies

If we fix final odds at 50, we get something like this:

50 = 25 + ( Your Spies * 100 / (( Enemy Spies * 3 ) + 1 ))

We can solve it as:

y = (4x -1)/3

where

y = Enemy Spies
x = Your Spies

As you can see, this is the equation of a line, meaning it has infinite solutions.
But we are only interested in finding values of y between 0 to 60(since 0 is the max spies your enemy can have, 60 is the maximum they can have).

To do this, we fix x and then solve for y. This may or may not give you an integer answer but the number you get is pretty much close to what spies your enemy has.
To fix the value of x, we use the value of Your Spies for which the odds just jump from Greater than 50% to Less than 50% or vice versa.

Let's take an example for this:

Putting x = 10, 15, 4, 8, 25 and solving the equation: y = (4x -1)/3, we get
Y = 13, 16.67(17), 5, 10.33(11), 33

Now you might ask me why we get decimals for spy values. The answer is that we assume a 50% odd at times where the odd might actually be 55% or 75% or 45%. 
You can fix these errors using trial and error methods and such but that's that. 

Also, this equation doesn't take into account the modifiers to odds due to special policies like Covert or Arcane.

Anyway, I hope this helps Orbis by making the game more fair for everyone unless you suck at maths.

If you liked the explanation, please consider donating to BABAI WHALE FUND to turn BABAI into a whale!
 

 

BASED BABAI WHISTLEBLOWER EXPOSES SPY SCAMS!

[Indger]

12 hours ago, Majima Goro said:

@Sweeeeet Ronny D
Aight, I'll make this fair game for all of Orbis telling everyone how to calculate spies for any individual.

First, we need to understand that when calculating spies, we approach it as an inequality. While the formula for odds can quiet easily be found here, using it only is going to be troublesome. Since the odds are shown as Greater than 50% and Less than 50%, we need to use this as an inequality equation as:

Final Odds > 50% , Final Odds < 50%

where

Final Odds = (Safety Level * 25 + ( Your Spies * 100 / (( Enemy Spies * 3 ) + 1 )))/Modifier

As you can see, there are a lot of variables out there which you can find value from in the link provided. 

Lets set the odds with these values:

Safety Level = 1
Modifier = 1

The equation now reduces to

Final Odds = 25 + ( Your Spies * 100 / (( Enemy Spies * 3 ) + 1 ))

We are hence left with only two variables which are Your Spies and Enemy Spies

If we fix final odds at 50, we get something like this:

50 = 25 + ( Your Spies * 100 / (( Enemy Spies * 3 ) + 1 ))

We can solve it as:

y = (4x -1)/3

where

y = Enemy Spies
x = Your Spies

As you can see, this is the equation of a line, meaning it has infinite solutions.
But we are only interested in finding values of y between 0 to 60(since 0 is the max spies your enemy can have, 60 is the maximum they can have).

To do this, we fix x and then solve for y. This may or may not give you an integer answer but the number you get is pretty much close to what spies your enemy has.
To fix the value of x, we use the value of Your Spies for which the odds just jump from Greater than 50% to Less than 50% or vice versa.

Let's take an example for this:

Putting x = 10, 15, 4, 8, 25 and solving the equation: y = (4x -1)/3, we get
Y = 13, 16.67(17), 5, 10.33(11), 33

Now you might ask me why we get decimals for spy values. The answer is that we assume a 50% odd at times where the odd might actually be 55% or 75% or 45%. 
You can fix these errors using trial and error methods and such but that's that. 

Also, this equation doesn't take into account the modifiers to odds due to special policies like Covert or Arcane.

Anyway, I hope this helps Orbis by making the game more fair for everyone unless you suck at maths.

If you liked the explanation, please consider donating to BABAI WHALE FUND to turn BABAI into a whale!
 

I will donate. 

[Deborah Kobayashi]

On 6/5/2021 at 6:23 PM, Sweeeeet Ronny D said:

It seems nowadays everyone has bots that can tell people within 1-2 spies every single person's spy count.  I know our bloc can do it, I know Rose can do it, I'm pretty sure all the major players can do it.  This seems like cheating to me, you shouldn't be able to know how many spies a person has it goes against the intent of spies. 

Can we please make spies worth 0 NS so that the bots cant track it, I assume that is how they do it?

(man this one isn't even self serving, it probably hurts me in the long run)

This isnt how the bots track it, and we all used to do it manually back in 2018.
All you do is go to an espionage attack page, change the op, the number of spies, and the operation, compare it against the spy calculator built in the game, and judge their spy count based on where the >50% changes to <50%, doing this manually you can get a spy count with a 1 or 2 spy margin of error. 

the bots just streamline this calculation.

the only way to stop this from being figured out would be to remove the >50% <50% thing, which would be worse at least imo than people being able to figure it out, manually or with bots.
(if you might recall, it used to say like 75-99% instead, when they changed this it really just made the margin of error like 1 or 2more at certain spy counts, but it is why they changed it I believe) 

[Deborah Kobayashi]

If Intel report operations were split from your other spy operations limit, then I think it would be ok to remove the >50 <50 thing and end the ability to calculate it, but as it stands now I think removing it is a bad Idea. though at the same time, if intel reports had no limit at all, we could just spam 1 spy intel gathering missions until we get it.

Edited June 9, 2021 by Deborah Kobayashi