Where to now, Immortals and TFP?

[Polar Bear ArcticExplorer]

This thread just keeps getting better and better

[Prefonteen]

7 minutes ago, Phoenyx said:

Here is what's not interpretation but fact:

1- Ronnie has made it clear that he never actually spoke to anyone in Swamp

2- Tyrion (Immortals) and Kaz (TFP) have both adamantly rejected any plans to attack Quack, or having even heard of such plans within the Swamp.

3- Tyrion, myself and possibly others find that Ronnie's source' statement is ambiguous as to what he meant.

4- Ronnie stated that this alleged plan to attack Quack seemed to fizzle out shortly after it allegedly started.

5- Ronnie stated that HM never adopted any plan to attack quack. 

 

On your side, you have Boyce saying that TCW/HM/Swamp were going to attack Quack in December/January. The source(s) for his information? No one knows. That's all you got.

 

I've looked over all the logs. Based on what I've read, he was simply referencing the defensive treaties that everyone admits were happening. I see nothing in them of any plan to initiate a first strike. Now that Sphinx has come out and straight up said that he had no such plans, it only adds to the pile of evidence that there was no first strike plan to attack Quack. 

1 through 5 are all statements from the subjects of your investigation. They have a vested interest in taking x or y position, and their denials are therefore unlikely to be admissable as fact without underlying evidence. Evidence which you, frankly, have lacked throughout this.

[Shiho Nishizumi]

5 minutes ago, Phoenyx said:

 

Actually, they were singled out, precisely because they were the only Swamp Alliances whose denials of this were made public. Anyway, there is still scant evidence that -anyone- on the Quack side had any plan to attack you guys first. The only evidence I have seem of someone clearly claiming this is Boyce. Who did he talk to? Sphinx has now completely denied any plan on his part to attack Quack and he is not shown as talking to anyone else on the anti Quack side. Why is it that you are so unconcerned about this clear weakness for your narrative?

It's not our problem if none of the other Swamp AA leads cared to comment on it.

I'm not concerned about that 'weakness' because, for starters, Sphinx is already on the record of having lied when put in this position before. On the run-up to NPOLT, his sphere's war plans on Chaos/KETOG were leaked. When that happened, he went on a DM spree on most govt of Chaos/KETOG saying that the plan that got leaked was no longer a thing, when in reality, the plan was very much still on, with the argument being when to hit, rather than if. He gunned for hitting at a later date once Chaos had rebuilt so to have something worthwhile to destroy, while his sphere mate argued for a closer date than that.

There's also the fact that he did try to shift the focus on getting us rolled before he himself got rolled during that 10 day skirmish between them and HedgeSwamp.

This, plus many other facets and what Partisan has elaborated, are why his statement isn't the law of the land that you'd like to think it is.

[Phoenyx]

46 minutes ago, Prefonteen said:

1 through 5 are all statements from the subjects of your investigation. They have a vested interest in taking x or y position, and their denials are therefore unlikely to be admissable as fact without underlying evidence. Evidence which you, frankly, have lacked throughout this.

 

I believe in innocent until proven guilty beyond a shadow of the doubt. You apparently believe guilty until proven innocent. If we use your metric, I could say the same of you and we'd get nowhere. Instead, I take everyone's statements and assume that people are being honest, but that their beliefs may still be false. Anyway, bottom line is, who did Boyce even talk to? We have some lines from Sphinx talking about treaties- none said anything about a first strike. So where did Boyce get this idea that TCW/HM/Swamp was going to initiate a first strike against Quack?

46 minutes ago, Shiho Nishizumi said:

It's not our problem if none of the other Swamp AA leads cared to comment on it.

 

True, but it -is- your problem that your CB has so little evidence to back it. 

47 minutes ago, Shiho Nishizumi said:

I'm not concerned about that 'weakness' because, for starters, Sphinx is already on the record of having lied when put in this position before. On the run-up to NPOLT, his sphere's war plans on Chaos/KETOG were leaked. When that happened, he went on a DM spree on most govt of Chaos/KETOG saying that the plan that got leaked was no longer a thing, when in reality, the plan was very much still on, with the argument being when to hit, rather than if. He gunned for hitting at a later date once Chaos had rebuilt so to have something worthwhile to destroy, while his sphere mate argued for a closer date than that.

There's also the fact that he did try to shift the focus on getting us rolled before he himself got rolled during that 10 day skirmish between them and HedgeSwamp.

This, plus many other facets and what Partisan has elaborated, are why his statement isn't the law of the land that you'd like to think it is.

 

Even if Sphinx -did- want to attack, it doesn't change the fact that TCW was a non voting member of Swamp. Put simply, he had no power to make it happen. Now, you could say that you didn't attack Swamp first, you only attacked TCW and HM, but there were certainly a lot of allegations that Immortals/TFP were lying when they flat out denied having any knowledge of first strike plan. 

 

And as I like pointing out to Partisan and others, you guys love focusing on what Ronnie said, but seem to place absolutely no attention on where Boyce got this notion that TCW/HM/Swamp was going to attack in December/January.  

[Shiho Nishizumi]

The CB had more than enough evidence and corroboration pre facto to be actionable; the stuff that transpired afterwards not only reinforced that intel but also showed plenty of stuff which wasn't known to us (e.g. the paperless). 

Sphinx influence or lack thereof within Swamp is immaterial, given that they positioned themselves in such a manner where the only way they could aggress was our way.

It's not my job to point at something that's quite obvious. Much the same way you can easily infer who the "anonymous HM leader" is. 

[dtc justice]

4 hours ago, Phoenyx said:

Here's a question for you- why are you all so focused on peripheral things, such as the quantity of my posts? Did you even read their content or, like Shiho, did you skip that too? I ask you, and the audience, to consider that something else is at work here.

I doubt more than 5 people fully read your 7 posts

[The Titan]

4 hours ago, Phoenyx said:

 

Made me smile :-). Alright, I'll give you my take as to why you don't want to elaborate. It's actually pretty simple- all this time, my central message has always been the same- that the mainstream narrative is fundamentally wrong. I'll elaborate in the next few paragraphs, but I imagine you will stop here, if you even get this far. I'll continue because I do believe that some people are interested, even if they aren't the most vocal here.

 

So, the Quack side came in with Partisan's CB about Sphinx/TCW, HM and Swamp preparing to attack Quack. Well, Sphinx just completely denied it and  Immortals and TFP,  the only 2 Swamp Alliances who responded to this allegation, also denied it. HM denied it as well, but the one sliver of hope for your narrative is Ronnie's statement, since turned into an ad, that Swamp had reached out to HM about attacking Quack.

 

In my quest to find out the truth, I looked into Ronnie's statement. Turns out, he never spoke to anyone in Swamp. His HM leader source, who may have spoken to someone in Swamp, was far more ambiguous in what he said. It now seems clear that Ronnie doesn't want to reveal anything more. A curious individual would wonder why that is. Someone like me would start to come up with theories.

 

My initial theory, which I think could still be true, is that Ronnie realizes, consciously or unconsciously, that his allegation regarding Swamp doesn't hold water. An alternate theory that I've been thinking about ever since the rift within Swamp became public, is that 1 or more Alliances in Swamp may well have wanted to go to war with Quack, but left Immortals and TFP out of the loop. Regardless of which theory is right, a lot of people here clearly jumped on to the bandwagon that Immortals and TFP were guilty and it's hard to walk back statements of this kind.

Okay, listen, for the 235843967347076904070890257389075405785043267548307583429057832904573482905th time...

 

We (as in the general community) have already read probably about the first and maybe second posts you made. But now you are literally repeating the EXACT SAME THING over and over again, with literally 0 additional insight or support.
I am glad you're taking an interest in the Orbis politics and forming an opinion for yourself, but stop trying to strongarm others to agree with you for the "greater good". Just saying, you're on our free-to-raid list now.

[Phoenyx]

2 hours ago, Shiho Nishizumi said:

The CB had more than enough evidence and corroboration pre facto to be actionable; the stuff that transpired afterwards not only reinforced that intel but also showed plenty of stuff which wasn't known to us (e.g. the paperless). 

We may have to agree to disagree on this one. 

2 hours ago, Shiho Nishizumi said:

Sphinx influence or lack thereof within Swamp is immaterial, given that they positioned themselves in such a manner where the only way they could aggress was our way.

 

Sphinx says he had no intention of attacking Quack. I think this should count for something. Especially since the only one saying that TCW -was- going to attack was Boyce and it seems he was inferring this from Sphinx- a misunderstanding perhaps. 

2 hours ago, Shiho Nishizumi said:

It's not my job to point at something that's quite obvious. Much the same way you can easily infer who the "anonymous HM leader" is. 

 

We clearly disagree on what is obvious here. I'd be interested in your take on who you think Ronnie's HM leader is though. 

1 hour ago, dtc justice said:

I doubt more than 5 people fully read your 7 posts

Perhaps. However, I'm going for quality over quantity here. 

[Phoenyx]

32 minutes ago, Lord Vader said:

Okay, listen, for the 235843967347076904070890257389075405785043267548307583429057832904573482905th time...

 

We (as in the general community) have already read probably about the first and maybe second posts you made. But now you are literally repeating the EXACT SAME THING over and over again, with literally 0 additional insight or support.
I am glad you're taking an interest in the Orbis politics and forming an opinion for yourself, but stop trying to strongarm others to agree with you for the "greater good". Just saying, you're on our free-to-raid list now.

 

So when you don't like someone's point of view, you raid them -.-? Speaking of the topic at hand, though- you were the one who spoke to Boyce, were you not? Tell me, why is it that you were so keen on his theories regarding TCW/HM/Swamp before the war but now seem to be so completely interested in where he came up with such theories?

[Prefonteen]

15 minutes ago, Phoenyx said:

We may have to agree to disagree on this one. 

 

Sphinx says he had no intention of attacking Quack. I think this should count for something. Especially since the only one saying that TCW -was- going to attack was Boyce and it seems he was inferring this from Sphinx- a misunderstanding perhaps. 

Sphinx has in the past said he had "no intention of doing x, y or z" and was proven to have lied. Many government leaders on your side are aware of this, as are we. It's common knowledge in the FA scene.

Ergo.... his word is not reliable enough to outright refute accidentally leaked logs.

15 minutes ago, Phoenyx said:

 

We clearly disagree on what is obvious here. I'd be interested in your take on who you think Ronnie's HM leader is though. 

Perhaps. However, I'm going for quality over quantity here. 

 

[Phoenyx]

Just now, Prefonteen said:

Sphinx has in the past said he had "no intention of doing x, y or z" and was proven to have lied. Many government leaders on your side are aware of this, as are we. It's common knowledge in the FA scene.

Ergo.... his word is not reliable enough to outright refute accidentally leaked logs.

 

Alright, fair enough. I still think the best way to try to find a truth we can agree on is to go to what I think are the 2 more prominent causes for its initiation and continuation. I made a thread on it as I think we're expanding beyond just TI and TFP at this point:

 

[SleepingNinja]

2 hours ago, Lord Vader said:

Okay, listen, for the 235843967347076904070890257389075405785043267548307583429057832904573482905th time...

 

We (as in the general community) have already read probably about the first and maybe second posts you made. But now you are literally repeating the EXACT SAME THING over and over again, with literally 0 additional insight or support.
I am glad you're taking an interest in the Orbis politics and forming an opinion for yourself, but stop trying to strongarm others to agree with you for the "greater good". Just saying, you're on our free-to-raid list now.

Get in line. 2 slots left. 😉

[WarriorSoul]

3 hours ago, Phoenyx said:

Perhaps. However, I'm going for quality over quantity here. 

Feels like there's a 462-post body of work that says otherwise.

[TRM]

6 hours ago, dtc justice said:

I doubt more than 5 people fully read your 7 posts

Indeed, and not just for the reason that walls of texts boring. 

[Buorhann]

You folks waste your time on Ins...  I mean, Phoenyx here.

[Flavee]

28 minutes ago, Buorhann said:

You folks waste your time on Ins...  I mean, Phoenyx here.

And he's getting free karmas for it... fml

 

[Zei-Sakura Alsainn]

It's funny watching people, especially quack, continue to bite the bait on this shitty circus clown.

[Buorhann]

9 hours ago, Akuryo said:

It's funny watching people, especially quack, continue to bite the bait on this shitty circus clown.

Could be that they're using him as a spring board to vent out their own perspectives of the war.

[Adrienne]

We're an opinionated group and you lot have left us with no one from your side to talk to. So really, it's all your fault.

[Phoenyx]

33 minutes ago, Adrienne said:

We're an opinionated group and you lot have left us with no one from your side to talk to. So really, it's all your fault.

 

It's my fault that no one else from our side wants to talk to you guys :-p? On a lighter note though, nice conversation with you and a few others Adrienne. 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Phoenyx

[Prefonteen]

3 hours ago, Buorhann said:

Could be that they're using him as a spring board to vent out their own perspectives of the war.

Trust me when I say that I dont need a spring board to vent my opinions on anything.

[Adrienne]

19 minutes ago, Phoenyx said:

It's my fault that no one else from our side wants to talk to you guys :-p? On a lighter note though, nice conversation with you and a few others Adrienne. 

That wasn't directed at you nor was that what that meant lol

[Phoenyx]

57 minutes ago, Adrienne said:

That wasn't directed at you nor was that what that meant lol

Ah ok, sorry :-p. Still though, here's to hoping we do another Thalmorite hangout some time in the future. I think that's the most fun I've had in this game in a while :-p. 

[dtc justice]

On 12/11/2020 at 2:29 PM, Phoenyx said:

 

Perhaps. However, I'm going for quality over quantity here. 

Thats funny because your quality posts stopped on your first thread regarding the war.

[The Titan]

On 12/11/2020 at 3:34 PM, Phoenyx said:

Tell me, why is it that you were so keen on his theories regarding TCW/HM/Swamp before the war but now seem to be so completely interested in where he came up with such theories?

I already know where he came up with the theories.