How much longer is this war going to last?

[TellUrGrlThx]

I could say something snide but I've exhausted my quota for such remarks this month. I am not being sufficiently neutral.

 

No please say it. I love hearing a guy who doesn't even actually play this game state his irrelevant opinion on every thread available.

[Lu Xun]

I suggest you sleep face down, with your nose and mouth covered by the bedsheets. If you don't end up suffocating, you'll enter a state of lucid dreaming and there I will tell you what my snide remark is.

[Buorhann]

Haha, Inst.  You try too hard man.  Almost Estelle level, almost.

[Lu Xun]

Damn it, I am now in excess of quota + 1. Seriously, getting into fights with everyone is wearing me down.

[Sweeeeet Ronny D]

there is a difference of between burning for your ally because they are getting screwed, and burning for you ally because they are being stupid.

[TheNG]

Guardian just bailed, which I think is a terrible choice. Mensa HQ bailing out of the war showed terrible esprit de corps, but it was only one alliance and Mensa wasn't that good an alliance in the first place. Guardian just bailed on SK, leaving SK by itself, meaning that SK will be forced to surrender soon, and pay outsize reps on top of that.

 

Not wholly a bad strategic choice, the next war cycle will be upon us soon and when I look at the map, well...

 

if DEIC/VOC gets hit, then the UPN-VE coalition will be intact for the next war, and there will be zero chance of UPN-VE fracturing in the war after the next war. In this case, trying to play for the December war won't work because Guard / SK will have rebuilt sufficiently to be a viable alternative target for whatever coalition is in power in December.

 

If DEIC / VOC does not get hit, and the UPN-VE coalition fractures and turns on each other, well, in the case that Guard / SK plays for time, they gain nothing. In the case that they play for a fast rebuild instead of losing quickly, they are now in position to be a major player in politics again.

 

Still, it's a bad show; apparently Mensa will ditch on its allies in a losing war instead of forming a united front for negotiations, as will Guardian. The total group had the ability to sustain war for much longer than what actually showed, and they had the potential to turn this defeat into a victory of sorts.

 

===

 

Lastly, if you're familiar with the concept of the Wisdom of Crowds, it looks like the favored grouping of June 5th-June 10th will probably be correct. I would be highly impressed if SK could hold on past then, but when both of your allies have ditched, meaning that you've gone from 6:1 to 18:1 in a losing war, it'll be hard to make a real show of resolve, and even harder to make a show of resolve that can impress anyone.

 

What I'm impressed with is that we have a small bit of importance, even if it is just us getting rolled (or not) determining some foreign policy.

Edited June 4, 2015 by TheNG

[Lu Xun]

You're rank 4 and you have 50k score. I'm wrong in that you're aligned with UPN and thus have a relatively secure space outside of a potential civil war, but w/e.

[TheNG]

You're rank 4 and you have 50k score. I'm wrong in that you're aligned with UPN and thus have a relatively secure space outside of a potential civil war, but w/e.

 

Civil war eh? Be right back.

*Goes to coup Mortimer*

[Lu Xun]

there is a difference of between burning for your ally because they are getting screwed, and burning for you ally because they are being stupid.

Like I said before, if Guardian and SK intentionally agreed to let Guardian go and let SK continue to suppress VE, then it's actually a good idea, but normally if you fight a war, and it's obvious you're going to lose, the alliances involved are supposed to work together and set up a plan as to how to acquire the best possible exit in order to maximize their strategic value post-war. Now, in (That terrible game that is totally irrelevant and I shouldn't be bringing it up anyways), we both know that blocs tend to drop out collectively and front like these tend to fall apart like that, but here, in PnW, it's just 3 alliances, and your divide-and-conquer strategy seems to be working effectively against them, since each alliance is separately negotiating with VE et al for peace terms.

 

If, say, Mensa, Guardian, and SK had collectively set a plan and performed collective bargaining, they would have been able to exit with lower terms, on a collective level, than what they are getting right now. Instead, Mensa leaves for 50 million, Guardian leaves for 50 million, but with half the alliance size so per capita losses are doubled, and SK will likely end up leaving for between 50 million and 100 million.

 

So, I mean, it doesn't necessarily have to be the way I'm guessing it's going; i.e, it doesn't have to be that coalition management on the Guard-SK side was terrible; Mensa HQ leaving early could have been in the game plan, or at least it could have been approved with the aim of preserving strength for Mensa in the post-war era (which, if you know me, I think is stupid because I favor soft factors over hard factors tremendously), and Guardian and SK could have agreed to let SK attempt to pin the VE coalition to try to lock down VE as long as possible while Guardian rebuilds and tries to re-establish a diplomatic footprint towards the next war, but if it is what it looks like, i.e, Tenages screwed up, Shellhound screwed up, Pfeiffer screwed up, then it would have been at least bad form to phase their surrenders the way they did.

[Ayayay]

Rose has carved it's own sphere as of late. If anything happens in the coming few months it will have to be from there end IMO. Maybe CoC could do something stupid causing a war but ODAP's mean they'd be on their own.

[Lu Xun]

If Rose gets targeted I wonder if they'll regret not staying with Guardian et al during this war. Even if they lost, getting rolled earlier rather than getting rolled later means that you take less damage before you're considered rolled, and you have more time to rebuild, part of it in virtual beige due to neutralization.

[Keegoz]

It's always fun watching people talk about you in public.

[Alice Lune]

Haha, Inst.  You try too hard man.  Almost Estelle level, almost.

I don't know, Estelle actually bothers to make a point. I like Estelle. Besides, Estelle actually plays the game. Inst... well... I put him on permanent ignore because obviously he's here just to troll.

[Lu Xun]

Amazingly useful. Thanks Mensa!

[Buorhann]

You are amazingly late with that reply.  Did it take you 5 days to find a clip to post a reply with?

[Lu Xun]

Do note that that was the exact same clip "TellUrGirlThx" used, and that was addressed to Alice Lune. I haven't actually looked at it but I bet it's The Big Lebowsky's "That's just your opinion man" clip.

[TellUrGrlThx]

Do note that that was the exact same clip "TellUrGirlThx" used, and that was addressed to Alice Lune. I haven't actually looked at it but I bet it's The Big Lebowsky's "That's just your opinion man" clip.

 

I wonder who this TellUrGirlThx guy is. He sounds like a cool guy since he posted a clip of the dude.

[Isolatar]

I wonder who this TellUrGirlThx guy is. He sounds like a cool guy since he posted a clip of the dude.

 

Cool enough to embargo someone for undercutting by $50 and then calling them a !@#$got

Edited June 10, 2015 by Isolatar

[TellUrGrlThx]

Cool enough to embargo someone for undercutting by $50 and then calling them a !@#$

 

You are a very imaginative person but TellUrGirlThx isn't a player in this game. http://prntscr.com/7fh7u5

[Lu Xun]

I'm glad you're limited to 12 letters in your username. That said, winner was June 10th. Ugh, off by one day.