Donald Trump Super Thread

[LordRahl2]

Rothschild. Unless you're saying it's not reputable which then brings up why you posted it as a source for something to begin with but meh, I don't care.

 

There are facts that the establishment will refuse to acknowledge which naturally makes the establishment's supporters also ignorant to the scale of the matter. Anyone in England outside London could have told them that the EU is a despised entity, but they spent their time touring London and as the majority there supported the EU they assumed everything was going to be fine so it actually came as a shock to them. 

 

Now a polling trick for Brexit was to take the undecided/unsure and bung them in the Remain camp because through their logic such a person is more likely to support the status quo than to vote for change. Is the logic wrong? Not fully no, but it ignored the fact that a person who wasn't sure simply for the sake of sticking it to the EU/establishment voted Leave.

In this case they're doing the same, Clinton is the status quo candidate or the "sane" candidate as they like to phrase it often enough. The effect will be same, Clinton is considered far worse than Trump and they will reject here. Then there is also the shy Tory factor which considering the hatred (and violence) aimed at Trump supporters is going to occur undoubtedly, and even polls that haven't been cooked up can't account for that.

 

Rothschild...Space aliens!

 

Anyway 3 reputable polling sites show a close BREXIT vote.  That many in the "establishment" missed this is true.  . . However, All of the current reputable polling sites show a Clinton victory (unlike the close BREXIT polling).  Sorry to bring facts into this.

 

I am looking at the reported polling and it does not appear that undecided were lumped into remain.  It looks like they were reported as, get this, undecided.  Consirpacy theories are cool and all but they need some facts behind them.

 

I do agree that the effect will be the same in that polling will show a reasonable result.  I fully expect the race to regress towards the mean.  This will ultimately be futile for the trumpsters.

Edited August 6, 2016 by LordRahl2

[LostWorld]

Just kiss already...

[LordRahl2]

Just kiss already...

 

Naw, its going to be a fun 93 days.

[Clarke]

Image

Philippines humor? I'll pass

[Rozalia]

Rothschild...Space aliens!

 

Anyway 3 reputable polling sites show a close BREXIT vote.  That many in the "establishment" missed this is true.  . . However, All of the current reputable polling sites show a Clinton victory (unlike the close BREXIT polling).  Sorry to bring facts into this.

 

I am looking at the reported polling and it does not appear that undecided were lumped into remain.  It looks like they were reported as, get this, undecided.  Consirpacy theories are cool and all but they need some facts behind them.

 

I do agree that the effect will be the same in that polling will show a reasonable result.  I fully expect the race to regress towards the mean.  This will ultimately be futile for the trumpsters.

 

This is good as I know the rest is simply dishonesty from you and don't have to bother with it.

 

For someone who whines about me attacking people it's actually your main tool, your main thrust is to ridicule in an attempt to discredit. Sometimes you are given easy ways to do so, other times you are simply dishonest like here.

 

You imply that I am one of those who rails against the Rothschilds, Jews, Illuminati, Lizard people, or whatever. This is false and you know it as the blanket group I talk is globalists who are not all exactly the same but do overlap in certain policies and goals. There is no need for a grand conspiracy, their goals simply align and they "worship" (as quotations aren't enough with you and only you apparently, I don't mean this literally) a certain type of economic policy that with it brings certain social policies they have to enforce also.

 

http://predictwise.com/politics/

 

One of the polls you posted. Right at the top it states.

 

PredictWise reflects David Rothschild’s academic, peer-reviewed, research into prediction markets, along with polling and online/social media data. The backbone of predictions on this site are market-based, generated from real-money markets that trade contracts on upcoming events. While we have great respect for: polls and online/social media data, the topline predictions reflect data that are more accurate, flexible, and update in real-time.

PredictWise is run wholly by David Rothschild an innovative, and stylish economist at Microsoft Research in New York City, but should in no way be construed as representing the views or predictions of Microsoft or any of its entities.

 

So you post a site (one of great many) and when I reference said site by it's most recognisable aspect (generic name sure isn't going to stick in my mind) you call me a conspiracy theorist. Just sad! Anyway I didn't do it for all but I did check other polls/data on them when possible of which that was one. After bringing it up on that one you just ignored it so I didn't bother bringing up the rest. 

[LordRahl2]

Yes, and the fascination with the Rothschilds is akin to space alien fascination.  As I said.

 

 
This is good as I know the rest is simply dishonesty from you and don't have to bother with it.

 

Huh?

 

Anyway the BREXIT polls were very close.  I challenge you to find where I called it for Remain.  (PROTIP-I did not)

Actually my assessment is that the EU is a deeply flawed and ultimately doomed institution.  Why would I care if Britain departed it and why would I be shocked that her people, who gave pollsters reasonable responses, leaned toward Leave on voting day?

 

 

 
For someone who whines about me attacking people it's actually your main tool, your main thrust is to ridicule in an attempt to discredit. Sometimes you are given easy ways to do so, other times you are simply dishonest like here.

 

What attack?  Jesus man, saying that Rothschild paranoia is akin to area 51 folks is not an attack, its a straight up fact.

Note and edit - I just googled Rothschild.  One of the top 4 google auto-fills was "Rothschild Illuminati".  Please spare the community your false indignation Roz.

Lastly, I do not "whine" about it.  I confront you.  This violates certain "internet rules" but a casual reader might think that your viewpoint was mainstream.  And its going to be a hoot in November!

 

At the end of the day you are simply annoyed that I am bringing facts to the table.

1) I claimed that polling on BREXIT was close.  (Facts - you dislike these)

2) You said it was not.

3) I provided sources that showed that it was. (More Facts)

4) You try to discredit me (ad hominems) and the sources.

5) I call you out.

6) you "whine" and try more ad hominems

 

That is what happened in plain English.

 

So provide me a reputable set of polling data that shows Remain way ahead near election day.

 

I predict you will not answer this question but will include one or more ad hominems.

Edited August 6, 2016 by LordRahl2

[Rozalia]

Yes, and the fascination with the Rothschilds is akin to space alien fascination.  As I said.

 

 

Huh?

 

Anyway the BREXIT polls were very close.  I challenge you to find where I called it for Remain.  (PROTIP-I did not)

Actually my assessment is that the EU is a deeply flawed and ultimately doomed institution.  Why would I care if Britain departed it and why would I be shocked that her people, who gave pollsters reasonable responses, leaned toward Leave on voting day?

 

 

 

What attack?  Jesus man, saying that Rothschild paranoia is akin to area 51 folks is not an attack, its a straight up fact.

Note and edit - I gust googled Rothschild.  One of the top 4 google auto-fills was "Rothschild Illuminati".  Please spare the community your false indignation Roz.

Lastly, I do not "whine" about it.  I confront you.  This violates certain "internet rules" but a casual reader might think that your viewpoint was mainstream.  And its going to be a hoot in November!

 

At the end of the day you are simply annoyed that I am bringing facts to the table.

1) I claimed that polling on BREXIT was close.  (Facts - you dislike these)

2) You said it was not.

3) I provided sources that showed that it was. (More Facts)

4) You try to discredit me (ad hominems) and the sources.

5) I call you out.

6) you "whine" and try more ad hominems

 

That is what happened in plain English.

 

So provide me a reputable set of polling data that shows Remain way ahead near election day.

 

Just utterly shameless. Shown to be dishonest and instead of stating that perhaps you weren't aware you'd posted such a source, you're still trying to push this Rothschild thing. Please pray tell where my attacks on the Rothschild's are, I mean if I'm obsessed with them as you say surely there is plenty evidence of me blaming them specifically for the world's ills?

 

I'm not going to bother with your further accusations, your main one meant to discredit and mock me is all that matters here. Rest are distractions.

 

There was no Rothschild paranoia from me and you know it. I did not state it was wrong because it was Rothschild, that was merely the easiest identifier to identify it out of the dozens you posted. I checked some other data on there and it was suspect, no more to it. But you always do this, you'll make some non-direct remark to attack or mock and then cry innocence when called out on it.

 

My indignation is that I did no such thing, merely referenced something YOU posted. Not "Oh that site is secretly ran by a Rothschild, it's a conspiracy, so it's no good", not that the name fills me with confidence considering where their interests are going to lie, but "One of your links I checked, such as the Rothschild one I checked for data and saw some issues that discredit it's usefulness in such things a bit". 

 

Just what are you on about? I'm well aware the Rothschilds are a common conspiracy targets... and? What does that have to do with me exactly? Jews are common conspiracy target too, you going to try and attack me on that also? Here I'll help you out. Saw some data from that Jew Billy Kristol, checked many of his other data and it seems to me he isn't that great of a source.  *Gasp* Roz is saying the Jews control the world. 

[LordRahl2]

I predict you will not answer this question but will include one or more ad hominems.

 

 

Doesn't answer question, includes ad hominem.

 

 

Anyway, I am going to go work out.  I will reply to that mess when I return.

[Rozalia]

Anyway, I am going to go work out.  I will reply to that mess when I return.

 

Showing that you have been dishonest and are trying to turn my innocent reference of one your sources into me being a conspiracy theorist (so ridiculing me) is not an ad hominem. It's simply the truth of the matter.

 

Your Rothschild angle is all there is worth addressing. I won't bother with anything else until you admit your dishonesty. As you won't then just don't waste our time by bothering to respond.

[LordRahl2]

Showing that you have been dishonest and are trying to turn my innocent reference of one your sources into me being a conspiracy theorist (so ridiculing me) is not an ad hominem. It's simply the truth of the matter.

 

Your Rothschild angle is all there is worth addressing. I won't bother with anything else until you admit your dishonesty. As you won't then just don't waste our time by bothering to respond.

 

I know that you cannot answer and desire to leave the topic behind.  Again, you know me.  I am not going to be distracted by your attempts to take the topic down a rabbit hole.

 

I also know that you CANNOT answer the question because there are none.  You just spent like half an hour looking.

 

So your only choice is ad homs and trying to derail the topic.

 

My predictive powers tho:

[Rozalia]

 

I know that you cannot answer and desire to leave the topic behind.  Again, you know me.  I am not going to be distracted by your attempts to take the topic down a rabbit hole.
 
I also know that you CANNOT answer the question because there are none.  You just spent like half an hour looking.
 
So your only choice is ad homs and trying to derail the topic.
 
My predictive powers tho:

 
You will naturally realising your horrible mistake on trying to paint me as a "Rothschild fascinated" conspiracy theorist try to distract from it but no, you know me and I won't allow you to get away with it. 
 
Keep doing it please.

Edited August 6, 2016 by Rozalia

[LordRahl2]

Yup.  Your Rothschild fascination is pretty blatantly obvious.  Really interesting derailment attempt though.

 

So provide me a reputable set of polling data that shows Remain way ahead near election day.

 

Can't do it now can ya?

 

Edited August 6, 2016 by LordRahl2

[LordRahl2]

Wait wait wait.  You are pulling predictive analysis from another thread, looked up Leave/Remain on it, and don't even understand what was in the analysis?  And saying that I used it here?  I used POLLS from the Financial Times, BBC, and another one. . .

 

I said POLLING DATA not predictive analysis.  I am guessing you do not understand the difference?

 

HAHAHAHAHA

 

 

Oh lord you are a hoot!

 

Continue please please please.

Edited August 6, 2016 by LordRahl2

[Rozalia]

 

Yup.  Your Rothschild fascination is pretty blatantly obvious.  Really interesting derailment attempt though.

 

 

Rothschild's are a very successful family whose success means they've often been the target of conspiracies, such as with the Jews or any minority group really that is more successful than the majority. Incidentally I'm not too familiar with the family's history but they are I believe of Jewish ancestry, though as I have spoke previously on this sort of matter all that matter is the nationality to me. The specific Rothschild when I googled him was British I believe. 

 

As I said, keep doing it. It's all you have so I understand don't worry. 

[LordRahl2]

No no, respond to the other one.  It took me a bit to figure out how wrong you were!

 

lolz

[Rozalia]

It didn't take you a while to realise, you just didn't check nor recall (you barely know your own sources otherwise you'd realise which I was talking about when I said the Rothschild one) as you're focused on trolling at full speed. As I told you that was one of the ones I checked that was ultimately incorrect, the rest... I don't have to bother to bring up considering what you have shown here with that one. Can't wait for after the election where I nor anyone else who have to suffer your tricks on here ever again.

 

Edited August 6, 2016 by Rozalia

[LordRahl2]

And now I went and looked up BREXIT on his site.

 

http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/06/brexit-polls-v-markets/

 

David M Rothschild on Posted on June 15, 2016

According to markets, Brexit has a 38% of occurring, in that there is a 38% of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU), and 62% of staying in the EU. At the exact same time the HuffingtonPost Pollster trend is 45.6% for leaving the EU and 43.1% for staying in the EU. This follows a similar pattern to previous separatist votes in established democracies: polls leaning toward the separation happening, but markets correcting predicting it will not.

First, in both Scotland and Quebec’s separatist votes from the United Kingdom and Canada respectively, poll responses were inflated for the leaving the union. This is understandable in that within a given geographic area, there is general considerable social desirability bias in supporting separation. Everyone wants to sound like they are part of the crowd; they love their country and their people. The reasons for staying are generally more mundane and less sexy than the reasons for leaving. So, when someone calls with a deep Scottish or French Quebec accent and asks if you want to leave the union there is a lot of pressure to say yes! But, when the same people get into the voting booth they choose the less sexy, but more stable, answer.

Second, 45.6% + 43.1% = 88.7%. Undecided is trending at 11.3%. The undecided tend to break towards staying in these types of votes. If a voter is truly not certain, but votes, it is easier to vote for continuity than change.

Where Yes means stay in the EU …

These are two reasons to expect staying to over-perform the polling. But, as undecided poll respondents got off of the fence in the last few days, they have pushed the leave poll response upwards. Could this be different?

The demographics of this vote are opposite historical separatist votes. Normally separatists are generally younger and liberal. But, in this case the young overwhelmingly want to stay in the EU; it is older, conservative voters that want out. In the latest YouGov poll, 60% of 18-29 year olds want to stay versus 20% of them want to leave. In the same poll, 59% of 65+ and 55% of 50-64 year olds want to leave with just 30% and 33% respectively wanting to stay.

Polls are capturing a mix of sentiment and voter turnout. Traditionally older people are more consistent voters and this is something that the polling companies already control for. But, if the tight election draws extra voters that helps the stay vote; if it is a quiet election, UK will be leaving the EU.

Everything here about historical polling, demographics, and voter turnout is known to the markets. They have aggregated that all to say 62% that the UK votes to stay in the EU. But, this number is falling fast as poll after poll giving leaving a commanding lead. This is certainly something I will be following daily for the next few days.

 

/////

 

Is that the 62% that you saw?  That is analysis.  Not a poll.

 

I disagreed with and now we can see some of his analysis was incorrect.  Undecideds broke for Leave.  Polls, which is what I asked you for, showed a close race because the race was close.  Shocker.

 

So now that you are educated on what a poll is:

 

Provide me a reputable set of polling data that shows Remain way ahead near election day.

[LordRahl2]

 

 

No, I assumed you knew what a poll was.  Silly me!

 

I love how tricky I am.  Asking straightforward questions and using facts.

 

You provide lots of entertainment, I am going to regret you leaving.

 

Provide me a reputable set of polling data that shows Remain way ahead near election day.

 

I predict you will not answer this question but will include one or more ad hominems.

Edited August 6, 2016 by LordRahl2

[Rozalia]

I specifically used source and data in my mentions here and in the other thread because I know it's not a poll. I am happy you have finally admitted to what I said of you trying to paint me as a conspiracy theorist. I knew at some point you'd look and not be able to try and use it as ammo for ridicule, predictable.

 

I shall now do what people told me to do with your efforts, well with my own spin on it of course.

 

Lyin'Rahl2 is a mess.

[LordRahl2]

I specifically used source and data in my mentions here and in the other thread because I know it's not a poll. I am happy you have finally admitted to what I said of you trying to paint me as a conspiracy theorist. I knew at some point you'd look and not be able to try and use it as ammo for ridicule, predictable.

 

I shall now do what people told me to do with your efforts, well with my own spin on it of course.

 

Lyin'Rahl2 is a mess.

 

 

Provide me a reputable set of polling data that shows Remain way ahead near election day.

 

I predict you will not answer this question but will include one or more ad hominems.

 

 

Ad homs and changing the subject is all you can do then?  This is gonna get fun!

 

Provide me a reputable set of polling data that shows Remain way ahead near election day.

 

I predict you will not answer this question but will include one or more ad hominems.

[LordRahl2]

My ability to predict that you would be unable to answer and revert to changing the subject and using ad homs deserves another .gif

 

 

Please post more of the same!

[Rozalia]

Lyin'Rahl2 is a waste.

[LordRahl2]

 

Lyin'Rahl2 is a waste.

 

 

I predict you will not answer this question but will include one or more ad hominems.

 

 

Provide me a reputable set of polling data that shows Remain way ahead near election day.

 

I predict you will not answer this question but will include one or more ad hominems.

[Rozalia]

Oh you're a real toughguy Lyin'Rahl2.

[LordRahl2]

But on a serious note Roz, why do you have trouble every time you run into facts?  Maybe you should use some introspection and evaluate your opinions.