Donald Trump Super Thread

[Rozalia]

[LordRahl2]

Roz getting worried up itt.

[Rozalia]

Roz getting worried up itt.

 

Nah, me posting in this thread is normal behaviour. 

 

[Callum]

Absolute power, corrupts absolutely.  

 

 

I'd imagine Trump will do something stupid down the line if he gets Elected. Not dangerous or world ended. just Stupid.

 

But Hilary? The Damage shes caused already without being PotUS?  one would have to be a blind fool to think she cant possibly do anything worse.

[LordRahl2]

So what states do you have him winning Roz?  You can just do the competitive ones if you want.

[Rozalia]

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10G2BQ
 
And thats even with the "new algorithm" and so much oversampling of Democrats they broke the scale over at Longroom.
 

So what states do you have him winning Roz?  You can just do the competitive ones if you want.

 
Come on now, don't be ambushing me with polls again. Trump will win many of those states they're now saying he'll lose especially in the Rust Belt I'm confident in. 
 
However ultimately there is a lot of time left and both candidates will focus in certain areas and those focuses can have effects on how the election goes. Clinton will try to focus on the Rust Belt no doubt as Trump needs that. Trump has said before he's going after New York and California which like a lot of his tactics is unorthodox to be sure, but if anyone can do it it's him through the combination of a message that reaches the working class and him being the hometown boy.

[LordRahl2]

No, I am just curious what you see as his most likely path is?  I will provide a likely outcome as well if you like.

 

So, California and New York?

[LordRahl2]

Here you go, I am sorry that it pre-fills but you can change the states up.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_president_map.html

[LordRahl2]

here is a decently likely one:

[LordRahl2]

Another possible outcome, although PA seems super unlikely to flip at this time.

 

[Callum]

Excuse my non-Americaness. but how does the US do its score keeping? Theres Clearly more red states, yet blue some how has more?

[LordRahl2]

So, super unlikely but close =)

 

 

 

 

That is 3 Roz, you can make one no?

[LordRahl2]

Excuse my non-Americaness. but how does the US do its score keeping? Theres Clearly more red states, yet blue some how has more?

 

Mostly population.  Populated states have more weight than less populated ones.  Each state does get an auto 2 votes though so raw numbers of states matters just a bit.

[Rozalia]

No, I am just curious what you see as his most likely path is?  I will provide a likely outcome as well if you like.

 

So, California and New York?

 

If I'm conservative. 

 

 

I don't have high hopes there, even New York alone would be a stretch. 

[LordRahl2]

thanks

 

Here is a fun one:

 

[Chickensguys]

The speech and series of endorsements that Trump made today went a long way in turning this election in favor of Trump. Tonight may have been his best moment yet. 

[LordRahl2]

The speech and series of endorsements that Trump made today went a long way in turning this election in favor of Trump. Tonight may have been his best moment yet. 

 

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

[LordRahl2]

Here is what RCP says will happen if the election were held today (it uses those evil poll things)

 

[Rozalia]

Here is what RCP says will happen if the election were held today (it uses those evil poll things)

 

 

Polls aren't perfect, especially oddly enough when it goes against the establishment. Sadly for them such as with Brexit cooking up some polls doesn't ultimately win you elections. 

[LordRahl2]

Polls are absolutely not perfect.  When I looked at polls close to Brext I saw a toss up.

 

That does not mean that reputable polls have a 7 point margin of error (not a toss up).

 

Here are some BREXIT poll analysis pre-vote:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271589

Solid analysis.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum

Same

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

good

 

It looks like undecideds moved to the leave camp.  Undecided splitting a bit in one direction is not unheard of.  However, I can find no reputable poll that had remain dominating by 7ish points.

[LordRahl2]

And ftr I sorta expected, and predicted, GB to leave the EU if not with the BREXIT vote then at some point.  It makes geopolitical sense on certain levels.

[Rozalia]

Polls are absolutely not perfect.  When I looked at polls close to Brext I saw a toss up.

 

That does not mean that reputable polls have a 7 point margin of error (not a toss up).

 

Here are some BREXIT poll analysis pre-vote:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271589

Solid analysis.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum

Same

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

good

 

It looks like undecideds moved to the leave camp.  Undecided splitting a bit in one direction is not unheard of.  However, I can find no reputable poll that had remain dominating by 7ish points.

 

Pretty sure one of the poll sites you spammed had when I searched Brexit at 10+ points. 

 

And ftr I sorta expected, and predicted, GB to leave the EU if not with the BREXIT vote then at some point.  It makes geopolitical sense on certain levels.

 

I didn't expect it. I knew it. As I know this. 

[LordRahl2]

Pretty sure one of the poll sites you spammed had when I searched Brexit at 10+ points. 

 

Proof?  Sorry about spamming if you can provide?  I am showing 3 reputable sites that I think show a very close BREXIT vote.

 

 

I didn't expect it. I knew it. As I know this. 

 

Cool beans mate.

 

I do not claim to know anything about how people vote.  It is one of the great mysteries of humanity.  Polling just gives us an imperfect peek into their minds.

[Rozalia]

Proof?  Sorry about spamming if you can provide?  I am showing 3 reputable sites that I think show a very close BREXIT vote.

 

 

 

Cool beans mate.

 

I do not claim to know anything about how people vote.  It is one of the great mysteries of humanity.  Polling just gives us an imperfect peek into their minds.

 

Rothschild. Unless you're saying it's not reputable which then brings up why you posted it as a source for something to begin with but meh, I don't care.

 

There are facts that the establishment will refuse to acknowledge which naturally makes the establishment's supporters also ignorant to the scale of the matter. Anyone in England outside London could have told them that the EU is a despised entity, but they spent their time touring London and as the majority there supported the EU they assumed everything was going to be fine so it actually came as a shock to them. 

 

Now a polling trick for Brexit was to take the undecided/unsure and bung them in the Remain camp because through their logic such a person is more likely to support the status quo than to vote for change. Is the logic wrong? Not fully no, but it ignored the fact that a person who wasn't sure simply for the sake of sticking it to the EU/establishment voted Leave.

In this case they're doing the same, Clinton is the status quo candidate or the "sane" candidate as they like to phrase it often enough. The effect will be same, Clinton is considered far worse than Trump and they will reject here. Then there is also the shy Tory factor which considering the hatred (and violence) aimed at Trump supporters is going to occur undoubtedly, and even polls that haven't been cooked up can't account for that.

[Peter Quill]