Seeking Information: One Million Dollar Reward

[Ace]

800k for worthless information? I'd say that's a bit much.

 

 

 

Nah, I'd rather do it right here, if you don't mind. Mostly, I just want you to tell me something about the situation that I don't already know. Something that none of us would know but maybe the person spying.

 

As I stated before it's negotiable. I don't mind proving my deductive reasoning. However, I am burdened on on the part where I have to actually mention one or more of the suspects.

 

But alright let's see... If I say 1 thing that isn't mentioned before in this thread. That is logically correct. That would suffice for you?

 

PS: Again evidence or worthless information is subjective... Brown University seem to think that this method of analysis is completely valid.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Ace

[naTia]

Unless you can eliminate every other nation except your suspects, you have no way to say that you can point fingers at somebody with just deductive reasoning and no hard evidence alone.

[ooohu]

Inside this groundbreaking novel I outline the measures taken in the theoretical spying of BoC as well as listing out potential suspects with a motive... Preorder your copy today for an easy Christmas special pricing of $600,000 only at The Pleasuredome!

[Jodo]

 

Tonight a 'touched' individual by the name of Ace makes the ground breaking discovery that he can post. Several victims were found with weeping into their hands while sobbing 'The quotation marks' and 'Goddamn deductive reasoning bullshit.' So far the mods have found no survivors. We'll stay with you all night to keep you updated. Back to you, !@#$ers.

[Ace]

Unless you can eliminate every other nation except your suspects, you have no way to say that you can point fingers at somebody with just deductive reasoning and no hard evidence alone.

 

The word evidence is becoming very subjective in this thread. Kinda like not believing in electricity simply because I can't see it. If I can't see what I want then it's not an hard-evidence! Which in fact all the non-hard(according to some) & non-visual evidence proves that electricity makes all the appliances work... but NO! I can't see it! So IDGAF, there is no hard-evidence it's not electricity! Very subjective this term evidence.

 

At this case some people here defined an IRC/text screenshot as an hard evidence and completely ignoring the case where the plotter DON'T use any IRC or in-game text systems. If that will be your stance then I am sorry we can't do business.

 

It could seem that way like how Thulium posted. But it's just truth. I did spend some time to research on this and if anyone is willing I will share it with them. Plain and simple.

[SAI-40]

The word evidence is becoming very subjective in this thread. Kinda like not believing in electricity simply because I can't see it. If I can't see what I want then it's not an hard-evidence! Which in fact all the non-hard(according to some) & non-visual evidence proves that electricity makes all the appliances work... but NO! I can't see it! So IDGAF, there is no hard-evidence it's not electricity! Very subjective this term evidence.

 

At this case some people here defined an IRC/text screenshot as an hard evidence and completely ignoring the case where the plotter DON'T use any IRC or in-game text systems. If that will be your stance then I am sorry we can't do business.

 

It could seem that way like how Thulium posted. But it's just truth. I did spend some time to research on this and if anyone is willing I will share it with them. Plain and simple.

 

That's what you're not understanding. I can see the evidence of Electricity at work in my life. When I flip on a light-switch, or when I'm warm, I have an understanding that Electricity is awesome and there's a reason I'm paying for it.

 

You've told us that the person who is doing the spy attacks has money and probably has an agenda, which leads me to understand that you've got the same !@#$ing information the rest of us do. The evidence you've given me just shows that you're not worth spending money on. The best course of action at this point is making your observation known so that, later on down the road, you can charge for it.

 

I mean, I think it's awesome that you're trying to find clever ways to make money, but no one is going to pay money so that someone can privately spout bull-shit at them.

[Ace]

That's what you're not understanding. I can see the evidence of Electricity at work in my life. When I flip on a light-switch, or when I'm warm, I have an understanding that Electricity is awesome and there's a reason I'm paying for it.

 

You've told us that the person who is doing the spy attacks has money and probably has an agenda, which leads me to understand that you've got the same !@#$ information the rest of us do. The evidence you've given me just shows that you're not worth spending money on. The best course of action at this point is making your observation known so that, later on down the road, you can charge for it.

 

Haha... Alright-alright. I'll give you more of my "observations". Before that I am just making sure.

 

As I stated before it's negotiable. I don't mind proving my deductive reasoning. However, I am burdened on on the part where I have to actually mention one or more of the suspects.

 

But alright let's see... If I say 1 thing that isn't mentioned before in this thread. That is logically correct. That would suffice for you?

 

 

Would this be sufficient for you?

Edited December 3, 2014 by Ace

[SAI-40]

Haha... Alright-alright. I'll give you more of my "observations". Before that I am just making sure.

 

 

 

Would this be sufficient for you?

 

I can't make a promise, I don't know the quality until it's here, but give it a go kid.

[Ace]

I can't make a promise, I don't know the quality until it's here, but give it a go kid.

 

Information from OP's post & Arguments in this thread: 

1) BoC members are being spy-attacked

 

2) They have tried to use their own spies to defend themselves

 

3) Spy-attackes are most harmful to newbies. Because its not fun and they leave the game. ELPINCHAZO also thinks these spy-attacks waste of resources. SAI40 said that it is a complete valid move to weaken BoC by targeting newer members. Luckynako also mentioned that BoC is the fastest growing alliance. Logically means BoC did the most recruitment.

 

4) SAI40 says these attacks might be a bug. 

 

5) SAI40 and Ashland had a chat on the IRC. And I guess SAI40 said that BoC was attacked 8 times+

 

6) SAI40 thinks BoC going to the forums posting a 1M reward is wrong. Because using spy-attack are also expensive and suggested that they should just use that money to rebuild. iljohn said a spy-attack can destroy 5 ships so rebuilding is also expensive.

 

Now. My Reasonings.

 

I) Considering Alliances

1) This is a game about power. Like all superpowers. They want to control/help lesser powers. (Like Russia wanting to grab Ukraine. China wanting to grab taiwan/tibet. So on...)

2) Looking from the alliance score rankings. 7 alliance would be considered those "superpowers". I would consider the 8-14 alliances to be "secondary powers". And 14+ to be alliances that are still trying to establish themselves.

3) Looking around many of the alliance affair statements in the forums. Such as TSG granting UPS protection. Alliances are forming alliances and wanting smaller alliances establish themselves.

 

II) Considering Relationships (New Observation Here)

1) The easiest alliance relationship I can remember are TAC & his allies. TC (UPN and merged EoS) and BoC *hint hint*. Among others.

2) ... 2nd observation here I could reveal...

 

My Deductive Reasoning (partially).

1) Only someone who has an agenda that benefits them with enough economically and political power would be the ringleader to do himself/ or ask someone else to do these series of spy-attacks.

2) Only someone who has enough economically and political power. So I can effectively eliminate almost all of the alliances that has a score wayy- below of BoC. (60%+ potential suspects) Someone would argue. But who knows they get the funding from their parent alliances!? My response is, true. But my question is do you want to find the henchmen or the ringleaders?

3) Only someone who has an agenda would do this. We know these spy-attacks are weakening BoC. And BoC is apart of the TC alliance (UPN, DIEC, BoC, etc). Who would benefit from weakening the TC alliance? from the observation II) Considering Relationships... We can easily answer this question. (from the 40% potential suspects, we can eliminate another half of the remaining %)

4) ... for now I only considered alliances. I can keep going on and on. Into more specific nations who did it... 

 

In conclusion:

 

I believe I've passed the bring some new observation to the thread and prove your reasoning skill test.

 

Personal note: Come on, it's not too hard to believe if someone's offering something it's not a total-bull s. I actually took time and effort to observe, think and type. At least something from that can be appreciated lol.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Ace

[Phiney]

Great work, please do continue onto individual nations. Just glad you've ruled us out.

[Jodo]

I'm still waiting for a name.

[Ace]

I'll double Ashland's offer if you'll stop placing quotations marks around random words. That's $110.00, just to "stop" quoting wo- ah !@#$ Ashland beat me to it

 

I'm still waiting for my $110.00 > <

[Dietrich]

I'm still waiting for my $110.00 > <

 

Haha... Alright-alright. I'll give you more of my "observations". Before that I am just making sure.

 

I saw another unnecessary quotation; regretfully, I am no longer able to consider you a reliable business partner, and will not be paying for services which were not rendered.

[Ashland]

I saw another unnecessary quotation; regretfully, I am no longer able to consider you a reliable business partner, and will not be paying for services which were not rendered.

I saw it as well.

[SoS]

It isn't coming from an enemy. Its coming from an alliance that wouldn't be involved in a global war. It's coming from an alliance that is/will profit from hostilities and war.

 

That should remove 6-8 suspect alliances from your list. If you're only looking at first page alliances, you have a narrow list.

[Grillick]

It isn't coming from an enemy. Its coming from an alliance that wouldn't be involved in a global war. It's coming from an alliance that is/will profit from hostilities and war.

 

That should remove 6-8 suspect alliances from your list. If you're only looking at first page alliances, you have a narrow list.

Roll GPA, amiright?

 

Don't be ridiculous.

[SoS]

Roll GPA, amiright?

 

Don't be ridiculous.

As a matter of fact, I have the name of the perpetrator. Ash, please send the bounty and if the suspect proves their innocence I'll return the money.

[Grillick]

As a matter of fact, I have the name of the perpetrator. Ash, please send the bounty and if the suspect proves their innocence I'll return the money.

It is literally impossible for there to be only one perpetrator.

 

So obviously you have no idea what you're talking about.

[SAI-40]

-New "Observation"-

 

So...your new Observation is that the two opposing forces in the game are the former TAC & Friends and TC, which includes BoC, and that there still might be lingering tensions that are influencing current events? And that you can narrow most of it down from there?

 

And you want 800k for that !@#$? You haven't deduced anything we don't already know, Ace. I mean, it's cool that you can throw around percentages and stuff, but none of it was really necessary when you can just look at the pages with a little bit of common sense and narrow down the suspects.

 

Give me something that will make me go "Oh, hey, that's something I didn't think of."

Edited December 3, 2014 by SAI-40

[SoS]

Ok, then I have three names. I don't have a complete list of losses from BoC, so I can't be sure what an exhaustive list of names would be. Never said I must list everyone involved to take the reward.

[Ashland]

If you had information/evidence of information that was valuable to me, you wouldn't be posting about it here.

[Ace]

 

 

 

But alright let's see... If I say 1 thing that isn't mentioned before in this thread. That is logically correct. That would suffice for you?

 

 

The only I wanted to prove that I have something that this thread doesn't have or hasn't stated yet. Something (an observation, fact or argument) that nobody in this thread has used this argument before for this case. In that regard I did so successfully. As if it proves my deductive reasoning skills, again subjective. You didn't really specific a "criteria" for what does suffice for you. I believe I have proven enough since I just followed Brown University's example of using deductive reasoning.

 

 

So...your new Observation is that the two opposing forces in the game are the former TAC & Friends and TC, which includes BoC, and that there still might be lingering tensions that are influencing current events? And that you can narrow most of it down from there?

 

And you want 800k for that !@#$? You haven't deduced anything we don't already know, Ace. I mean, it's cool that you can throw around percentages and stuff, but none of it was really necessary when you can just look at the pages with a little bit of common sense and narrow down the suspects.

 

 

Short answer: Yes that is the new observation in this thread.

As I said before. Reasoning is not making stuff up, it means taking what we already know and trying to see something what we didn't see before. I can say a Russian hacker is hacking this game and spy-attacking BoC members. While it's not impossible, it's not very convincing because there nothing we already know that support that. More likely someone in this game who is capable with the right motivation who wants to weaken BoC is a much-more likely possibility and we can use what we already know to reason to it.

 

I don't reveal my whole intel in that 1 post, if I had to remind you.

 

It isn't coming from an enemy. Its coming from an alliance that wouldn't be involved in a global war. It's coming from an alliance that is/will profit from hostilities and war.

That should remove 6-8 suspect alliances from your list. If you're only looking at first page alliances, you have a narrow list.

 

I vouch to disagree if you completely neglected all of BoC's enemies. Simply because I would just argue back... I could weaken my enemy AND profit from these hostilities.

And I can argue. If say it is indeed a neutral party who did it. Why attack BoC from all the other 49 alliances in the game? Someone among them can predict that Ashland is gonna give a 1M reward? I refuse to believe someone in this game has that level of mind-reading.

 

A more likely case is that party has an agenda against BoC. That would be BoC's enemies/competition. They will profit more from it.

Edited December 3, 2014 by Ace

[SoS]

Why wouldn't I post here? I don't have anything to hide or fear.

 

I don't have logs, but I have something much more concrete to look into than Ace. You are the only one with the information to accurately investigate the leads I give you.

 

If the goal of the attacks is to create hostility and war, then it's much more likely to be a third party. It's stupid to believe anyone would do these attacks to discourage some noobs. But, starting a war would be a worthy goal. No one would profit from this war by being caught up in it.

 

Why attack BoC? Because it is part of TC and their average score is low enough to not be a direct threat. BoC would be the obvious target for anyone setting out to do something like this.

Edited December 3, 2014 by SoS

[ooohu]

The thing that is a bit silly to me is that if alliances were attempting to weaken TC they'd do so by targeting the strength within it...I think it goes without saying that BoC are not the powerful force in TC. So with that in mind the idea that the spying attacks that have happened against BoC are being used to "weaken" TC is just silly. You don't chop down a tree by pulling off twigs, you cut it down by hacking at the trunk.

 

I think the million dollar answer to this whole situation can be summarized as a bunch of nations seeing BoC post every time they build a ship and noticing that they have no spies blow it up out of amusement. Not some grand conspiracy because to put it bluntly BoC don't matter enough to warrant such scheming. They're a young and growing alliance and have enough posters to be considered active which is a good thing, but on that same hand they needlessly draw attention to themselves with these sorts of threads (and the ones advertising they've built ships without spies); the spy attacks is simply the result of that and nothing more.

 

Case solved, free of charge.

[naTia]

I'll accept his million.

 

Or maybe Ashland will. _{Don't think I'm not still watching you}