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[Mechanics Issues] 2.5 times the army value doesn't give Immense Triumph all the time.


Majima Goro
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War Battle Link: https://politicsandwar.com/nation/war/timeline/war=933193
War Attack ID: 10610698
Attack Type: Naval
Success Type: Moderate Success


unknown.png

According to the war mechanics, any attack done by a force 2.5 times larger than a defending force will ALWAYS result in an Immense Triumph(IT). However, recently, possibly after the new mechanics got pushed live, this hasn't been the case, with armies 2.5 times larger getting Moderate Success(MS) or Pyrrhic Victory(PV) at times.

For the given war linked above, I used 5 ships to hit the person with 2 ship(2.5x army value vs opponent)(Victory type=IT), followed by two naval hits with 3 ships on 1(3x army value vs opponent).

The first of the 3 ship hit resulted in Victory type=IT while the second one resulted in a moderate success. I had enough munitions and gas to run the 3 ships(look below for the API data for that war-attack). Hence, I should have gotten an Immense Triumph. But that was not the case. And this isn't a one-time thing as well. I've seen this happen multiple times with people trying to use the minimum troops or just above minimum troops required to get ITs against opponents. And this isn't only for ships. This has happened for ground units as well. 

I'd like @Alex to look into this and if it isn't a mechanics issue, tell us if the numbers to get a guaranteed IT has been twerked around.

JSON from the war-attacks api for the above attack:
{
"war_attack_id":"10610698",
"date":"2021-05-16 06:02:18",
"war_id":"933193",
"attacker_nation_id":"262298",
"defender_nation_id":"270929",
"attack_type":"naval",
"victor":"262298",
"success":"2",
"attcas1":"0",
"attcas2":"0",
"defcas1":"0",
"defcas2":"0",
"city_id":"540187",
"infra_destroyed":"0.93",
"improvements_destroyed":"0",
"money_looted":"0.00",
"note":"11",
"city_infra_before":"1185.00",
"infra_destroyed_value":"7701.52",
"att_gas_used":"6.00",
"att_mun_used":"9.00",
"def_gas_used":"1.80",
"def_mun_used":"2.70",
"aircraft_killed_by_tanks":0
}

PS: How do I show things as spoilers
 

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Posted (edited)

Be ready for the answer of, "Just because the chance is astronomically low doesn't make it 0". 

Edited by Denison
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On 5/16/2021 at 1:24 AM, Majima Goro said:
War Battle Link: https://politicsandwar.com/nation/war/timeline/war=933193
War Attack ID: 10610698
Attack Type: Naval
Success Type: Moderate Success


unknown.png

According to the war mechanics, any attack done by a force 2.5 times larger than a defending force will ALWAYS result in an Immense Triumph(IT). However, recently, possibly after the new mechanics got pushed live, this hasn't been the case, with armies 2.5 times larger getting Moderate Success(MS) or Pyrrhic Victory(PV) at times.

For the given war linked above, I used 5 ships to hit the person with 2 ship(2.5x army value vs opponent)(Victory type=IT), followed by two naval hits with 3 ships on 1(3x army value vs opponent).

The first of the 3 ship hit resulted in Victory type=IT while the second one resulted in a moderate success. I had enough munitions and gas to run the 3 ships(look below for the API data for that war-attack). Hence, I should have gotten an Immense Triumph. But that was not the case. And this isn't a one-time thing as well. I've seen this happen multiple times with people trying to use the minimum troops or just above minimum troops required to get ITs against opponents. And this isn't only for ships. This has happened for ground units as well. 

I'd like @Alex to look into this and if it isn't a mechanics issue, tell us if the numbers to get a guaranteed IT has been twerked around.

JSON from the war-attacks api for the above attack:
{
"war_attack_id":"10610698",
"date":"2021-05-16 06:02:18",
"war_id":"933193",
"attacker_nation_id":"262298",
"defender_nation_id":"270929",
"attack_type":"naval",
"victor":"262298",
"success":"2",
"attcas1":"0",
"attcas2":"0",
"defcas1":"0",
"defcas2":"0",
"city_id":"540187",
"infra_destroyed":"0.93",
"improvements_destroyed":"0",
"money_looted":"0.00",
"note":"11",
"city_infra_before":"1185.00",
"infra_destroyed_value":"7701.52",
"att_gas_used":"6.00",
"att_mun_used":"9.00",
"def_gas_used":"1.80",
"def_mun_used":"2.70",
"aircraft_killed_by_tanks":0
}

PS: How do I show things as spoilers
 

Each roll, both sides can roll between 40% and 100% of their army value. This is just the number of ships you have (it's multiplied by a constant factor on both sides, so that's not that important.)

For example, 5 ships vs. 2 ships:

5 ships max roll = 5, 5 ships min roll = 5 * 0.4 = 2.

2 ships max roll = 2, 2 ships min roll = 2 * 0.4 = 0.8.

If you tie, the defender wins.

So, in this case, it's entirely possible for you to roll a 2 and the defender to roll a 2 and for the defender to win that roll. It may not be very likely, but it's possible.

If you want to guarantee a victory, I think you need to have a strictly greater than 2.5x force, as an equals 2.5x force leaves the possibility for a tie.

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10 hours ago, Alex said:

Each roll, both sides can roll between 40% and 100% of their army value. This is just the number of ships you have (it's multiplied by a constant factor on both sides, so that's not that important.)

For example, 5 ships vs. 2 ships:

5 ships max roll = 5, 5 ships min roll = 5 * 0.4 = 2.

2 ships max roll = 2, 2 ships min roll = 2 * 0.4 = 0.8.

If you tie, the defender wins.

So, in this case, it's entirely possible for you to roll a 2 and the defender to roll a 2 and for the defender to win that roll. It may not be very likely, but it's possible.

If you want to guarantee a victory, I think you need to have a strictly greater than 2.5x force, as an equals 2.5x force leaves the possibility for a tie.

I had used 3 ships vs 1 ship

So this comes out to 3*0.4=1.2 vs 1*1=1 in the worst case scenario for me

Result was still a moderate success.

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On 5/18/2021 at 3:53 AM, Majima Goro said:

I had used 3 ships vs 1 ship

So this comes out to 3*0.4=1.2 vs 1*1=1 in the worst case scenario for me

Result was still a moderate success.

It may be due to rounding, e.g. the random numbers generated are always integers, so it can't randomly roll between [0,1.2] it would be between [0,1].

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On 5/16/2021 at 2:24 AM, Majima Goro said:

According to the war mechanics, any attack done by a force 2.5 times larger than a defending force will ALWAYS result in an Immense Triumph(IT). However, recently, possibly after the new mechanics got pushed live, this hasn't been the case, with armies 2.5 times larger getting Moderate Success(MS) or Pyrrhic Victory(PV) at times.

The silly thing about this is it doesn't work in reverse. Try attacking a force 2.5 times larger and it's an UTTER FAILURE every damn time. I want Alex to explain how he figured that was fair and what math he was using. Because that it isn't looking right to me.

 

@Alex

 

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1 hour ago, Deulos said:

The silly thing about this is it doesn't work in reverse. Try attacking a force 2.5 times larger and it's an UTTER FAILURE every damn time. I want Alex to explain how he figured that was fair and what math he was using. Because that it isn't looking right to me.

There are three rolls

If all 3 are in your favour, it is an IT

2 is MS and 1 is PV

0 is a failure

When a large army attacks a smaller one, usually more than 0 rolls are in their favour meaning you get atleast a PV

However, when a smaller hits a larger, usually less than 3 rolls are in your favour meaning you dont usually get a IT. You can get a MS or PV or a failure more likely. However saying this never happens is BS since it has happened a lot to me, so much so, I've even got ITs with 2/3rd their armies.

Plus defenders also get the advantage that if the roll values are equal, defender takes a victory.

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9 hours ago, Majima Goro said:

There are three rolls

If all 3 are in your favour, it is an IT

2 is MS and 1 is PV

0 is a failure

When a large army attacks a smaller one, usually more than 0 rolls are in their favour meaning you get atleast a PV

However, when a smaller hits a larger, usually less than 3 rolls are in your favour meaning you dont usually get a IT. You can get a MS or PV or a failure more likely. However saying this never happens is BS since it has happened a lot to me, so much so, I've even got ITs with 2/3rd their armies.

Plus defenders also get the advantage that if the roll values are equal, defender takes a victory.

I'm not sure what you are refuting. I think I was agreeing that having a force 2.5 time greater should always result in an IT. I was saying it should then work in reverse. 

This wasn't the case though with it being a toss-up on who wins or loses instead of it being based on actual might. 

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15 hours ago, Deulos said:

The silly thing about this is it doesn't work in reverse. Try attacking a force 2.5 times larger and it's an UTTER FAILURE every damn time. I want Alex to explain how he figured that was fair and what math he was using. Because that it isn't looking right to me.

 

@Alex

 

I don't know who came up with this 2.5x rule that everyone is talking about. I certainly never wrote that anywhere.

But anyway, see the math I just wrote in this post here showing that you could get an IT victory with only half the army size.

It's fairly simple for anyone to check the possible outcomes for any given situation.

And it's also worth pointing out that either it's a guaranteed IT/UF or any outcome is possible (though the probability distribution is going to be weighted in favor of whoever has more forces.)

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9 hours ago, Alex said:

I don't know who came up with this 2.5x rule that everyone is talking about.

It is implied actually
Lets say you have x ships and I have y ships

Since a roll has a minimum value of 0.4, the least possible value of my ships can be 0.4y
Since a roll has a maximum value of 1, the least possible value of your ships is x

The minimum value needed to win a roll for me is if 0.4y>x   => y > x/0.4    => y >2.5x
Or in other words, if y is 2.5 times larger than x, it is a win for me in the roll and subsequently all other rolls.

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15 hours ago, Majima Goro said:

It is implied actually
Lets say you have x ships and I have y ships

Since a roll has a minimum value of 0.4, the least possible value of my ships can be 0.4y
Since a roll has a maximum value of 1, the least possible value of your ships is x

The minimum value needed to win a roll for me is if 0.4y>x   => y > x/0.4    => y >2.5x
Or in other words, if y is 2.5 times larger than x, it is a win for me in the roll and subsequently all other rolls.

Fair enough, but as you stated, it's a strictly greater than comparison. I've seen a lot of angry messages out here lately about how just having a 2.5x force isn't sufficient.

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7 hours ago, Alex said:

Fair enough, but as you stated, it's a strictly greater than comparison. I've seen a lot of angry messages out here lately about how just having a 2.5x force isn't sufficient.

No, I think the anger is because due to some sort of rounding up in the background, even 3 times as much force isn't enough to get IT at times.

A fix to it can be to multiply the initial value of units by 100. I'll show how this can work

Example 1:
Opponent = 1 ship
Me = 2.6 ship

Current Roll System:
Opponent = Round(1 * 1) = 1
Me = Round(2.6 * 0.4) = Round(1.04) = 1

Proposed Roll System:
Opponent = Round (1*1*100) = 100
Me = Round(2.6*0.4*100) = 104


Example 2:
Opponent = 1 ship
Me = 2.5 ship

Current Roll System:
Opponent = Round(1 * 1) = 1
Me = Round(2.5 * 0.4) = 1

Proposed Roll System:
Opponent = Round (1*1*100) = 100
Me = Round(2.5*0.4*100) = 100


The multiplication by 100 should in theory take care of most stray decimals for values just over 2.5, maintaining the mechanics that 2.5 times can result in a draw roll while making anything above 2.5 times result in a win. In fact, a higher power of 10 like 1000, 10000, etc can get even better results  to minimize such grievances. 
 

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