Just checked his wars.
He did a few wars against Empy. But why would your alliance pin him down? No incentive to do that.
And I think he just moved to Arrgh. Would need to double check that.
Sure Vince.
I think if we look at the past, and the wars, the shorter wars were fought by weak alliances as you said: TFP, AIM, etc.
And the longer wars were fought by, well, just look at the history. Lol.
I think this supports your claim.