The war breakdown.

[Prefontaine]

There are winners are losers in the actual war, and there are winners and losers in the political arena. Alliances have won a war, but fallen apart or had allies leave them post war in mass and effectively lost the position they held prior to the war. Lets talk about how this war is shaping up.

 

Mensa talks a lot. They've defended their position in attacking Vanguard for their problems with Rose as a tactical move, and a legit thing to do. They've insulted Rose and to a lesser extend (see: Much) VE for their delay in attacking them for attacking Vanguard. It's obvious to anyone with a brain (see: Not Mensa) that the exact same thing was about to happen to them as a retaliation. Now two of Mensa's allies are about to be hit hard, assuming Rose members find the war button, and Mensa will have to risk activating Rose's defensive treaties to hit them. Mensa can't sit back now can they? After the copious amounts of shit they've talked about not letting allies sit by the wayside, how they honor their treaties, how they should not only attack the attackers but do it quickly. The whole point of hitting Vanguard was to avoid hitting Rose and risk their treaties, now they effectively have to with the shit they've talked. If they don't well they're just honorless trash whose word means nothing. Kind of the reason I was trolling them so hard in the other threads was because it was clear the other shoe was about to drop and they would be in the same position they tried to put Rose in. 

 

Where to go from here? Does Mensa double down and hit Alpha? Though few members Alpha could actually inflict some major damage while being overrun, and they also have at least one known ally over 1k average strength as well. Or do they have a deal with TC? I think the TC thing is more likely. For whatever reason UPN has a political hard-on for Mensa. They paid them a large sum of money to avoid a war they wouldn't have even had to fight. The main problem with declaring on Rose is their treaty with DEIC. However I know Clarke/Diabolos/Emily reasonably well, and based on DEIC's past actions I fully expect them to cancel their treaty with Rose. Even said in IRC that I'd bet money they will within the week. DEIC are bad allies to have unless you're UPN/BoC. They don't stick around when things get tough, but they're happy to be your ally when things are good and easy. Solid partners to have really. 

 

So what're your thoughts? Will Mensa leave their allies to the wayside after all that talk? Will they declare on Rose/VE directly? Will they hit another one of Roses or VE's allies? Will DEIC drop Rose? Lets post those theories! Not sure either Rose or Mensa will come out of this war looking very good personally, in game and/or politically.

[Jodo]

I thought this was a Kastor prediction thread at first.

[Presidential]

I'd say that so far Pre's predictions have been correct (looking here http://politicsandwar.com/forums/index.php?/topic/8151-how-this-war-should-play-out/page-1 )

[Prefontaine]

I'd say that so far Pre's predictions have been correct (looking here http://politicsandwar.com/forums/index.php?/topic/8151-how-this-war-should-play-out/page-1 )

 

To give a prediction of what happens next it would be Mensa quiets a bit about their allies getting attacked and them not defending them. At most they'll hit VE but they want Rose, so working along with UPN they convince DEIC to drop Rose and then they finally attack Rose directly. Edit: At which point SK come in as well.

Edited August 24, 2015 by Prefontaine

[Lu Xun]

UPN and DEIC have a no-win situation, tbh. If they intervene on VE-Rose's behalf, they will face being a junior partner post-war. If they stay neutral, they will be essentially passive and isolated post-war, having effectively abandoned the Synd-Mensa bloc to face a VE and Rose that is statistically dominant. If they get involved for Synd-Mensa, if they act too early, they risk becoming a junior partner to Syndicate and Mensa post-war, and if they act too late, they will face the novel and challenging position of being politically dominant in the post-war era, making them an easy target for arms and resentment.

 

It's a cluster!@#$, but it beats their initial position going into this war cycle as the primary target. Best odds seem to be to let Synd-Mensa commit their diplomatic assets as much as possible going into the war, then intercede after both combatants have battered each other up. This'll put them in the novel position of primacy, but the question is whether UPN and DEIC have the governmental talent to sustain it; they have been relatively passive to date and unexceptional in growth so I doubt it.

 

===

 

You know what, when I think about it, neutrality is probably the best way to go. Synd-Mensa have no one else to run to after this war; they can choose to either become junior partners of VE or UPN, and while UPN effectively abandoned them, UPN didn't roll them and UPN offers them the best shot of revenge. Failing that, because Synd-Mensa probably received guarantees, UPN-DEIC will probably intercede after Synd-Mensa have been reduced somewhat, but not before engaging VE becomes impractical. In the run-up to that, they'll have time to profit off the markets and extend growth, as well as take as much preparation as possible for their impending entry.

 

===

 

That said, ultimately it'll come out to effective FA, I think. An argument can be made from the VE side for UPN and DEIC to stay neutral, while an argument can be made from the Mensa-Synd side for UPN to get involved. The question is which way the mule turns; there are plausible arguments for both decisions, but on the other hand, the longer UPN waits, the closer it gets to the point where an intercession won't matter.

 

Beyond that, Mensa-Synd needs to bring its own immediate sphere allies into the battle in an attempt to convince UPN and DEIC that an intercession is viable, as well as use treaty weight to prevent UPN and DEIC from declaring neutrality. Just deciding to immediately lose and prepare for the next war won't necessarily work either; there is still significant risk if Mensa-Synd wants to align with UPN - DEIC to finish the next war; for instance, by giving VE and Rose time to act, VE and Rose gain time to disrupt the position; for instance, it seemed certain that Paragon would destroy the coalition earlier this war cycle, but Paragon fell apart and if VE wins this it'll be by the skin of their teeth, but the best odds for Mensa-Synd come if UPN and DEIC agree to enter the war ASAP.

Edited August 24, 2015 by Inst

[Clarke]

I'm not sure you know me that well to be honest unless you consider me a troll since a lot of our conversations ended with you "hanging up the phone" calling me a troll. 

[Prefontaine]

I'm not sure you know me that well to be honest unless you consider me a troll since a lot of our conversations ended with you "hanging up the phone" calling me a troll. 

 

Well, you can prove me wrong if/when you don't cancel your treaty and defend Rose.

[Clarke]

Well, you can prove me wrong if/when you don't cancel your treaty and defend Rose.

That's more in regards to latter part of the sentence, I was wondering how you know me well enough to support the latter part of the sentence. 

I like to think I don't hide from a losing fight. 

[Prefontaine]

I like to think I don't hide from a losing fight. 

 

[Clarke]

I mean I figured fighting a dozen alliances 100 times or more bigger than me meant something. 

 

[Phiney]

I'm not sure you can count you going rogue as evidence

[Prefontaine]

I'm not sure you can count attempted game suicide as evidence

 

Fix'd.

[Clarke]

It could have being worst, I could have abandoned my alliance to go rogue knowing that the good times were probably over and that they would get rolled. That definitely would have being the better option, what do you think Pre?

Edited August 24, 2015 by Clarke

[Prefontaine]

 

It could have being worst, I could have abandoned my alliance to go rogue knowing that the good times were probably over and that they would get rolled. That definitely would have being the better option, what do you think Pre?

 

 

I totally left Guardian in a bad spot you're right. Shellhound only had the alliances, relations, allies set up to take on any group in the game when I left. Not my fault him and Tenages squandered that. Had I stayed, shit, Guardian would likely still be on top. But yeah, me leaving when my alliance was on top was the total shit thing to do, unlike you who left your alliance after suffering a defeat, were at a low point and then attacked them. I should have take notes on how/when to make my exit from you. 

[Clarke]

You make a good point, at least my ego would be intact.

Well done on you.

[Jodo]

Kiss already.

[Hysteria]

0.5/10 breakdown

 

Try harder