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Vital Defense worked too good


whiskerz
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14 minutes ago, Jacob Knox said:

You may have just gotten unlucky. It's not a super super low probability.

0/2 hitting is 4%, 1/2 hitting is 32%, 2/2 hitting is 64%.

 

 

This is my point exactly. The hit ratio in a perfect world is 80% so even 1/2 is lower than the average which should be closer to 1 stopped out of 4, Which would be 75% success. There is not really luck it is a arrhythmical chance. clearly it needs some behind the scenes massaging to bring it in line with the stated results of 20% stopped  

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26 minutes ago, whiskerz said:

 

 

This is my point exactly. The hit ratio in a perfect world is 80% so even 1/2 is lower than the average which should be closer to 1 stopped out of 4, Which would be 75% success. There is not really luck it is a arrhythmical chance. clearly it needs some behind the scenes massaging to bring it in line with the stated results of 20% stopped  

I don't think you understand how statistics works. It's not guaranteeing that 20% of nukes will be stopped and 80% will hit. It says that given an attempted nuclear strike, the project has a 20% chance of blocking it and an 80% chance of not blocking it. The probabilities of any two nukes being blocked are completely independent. Whether or not Nuke 1 hits has literally 0 impact on the probability of whether or not Nuke 2 hits.

Jacob Knox

Federation of Knox

Advisor, Aurora

Former Head of Military Affairs, Aurora

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4 minutes ago, Jacob Knox said:

I don't think you understand how statistics works. It's not guaranteeing that 20% of nukes will be stopped and 80% will hit. It says that given an attempted nuclear strike, the project has a 20% chance of blocking it and an 80% chance of not blocking it. The probabilities of any two nukes being blocked are completely independent. Whether or not Nuke 1 hits has literally 0 impact on the probability of whether or not Nuke 2 hits.

 

 

I understand that. I would think over time the number comes into focus and the number of nuke hits should be  along the lines of an 80% hit rate. If not then something seems like it is not as advertised 

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7 minutes ago, whiskerz said:

I understand that. I would think over time the number comes into focus and the number of nuke hits should be  along the lines of an 80% hit rate. If not then something seems like it is not as advertised 

Read the "law of large numbers" and some things may become clearer.

The statistics are working just fine.

If you get nukes 1k times and don't see that 20%, then sure, report it.

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