Stock / Futures Market

[CosmoZombie]

So how about something like a futures market? I know some proposals like this have already been made, but hear me out; I've put a lot of thought into this:

 

 

So, let's first define:

• "entity" as "a nation or alliance, depending on the context",
• "stocks" as "futures, but Cosmo thinks stocks sounds better",
• "split" as "double in number (volume) and halve in value",
• and "consolidate" as "halve in number and double in value".

When this is implemented, let's say every entity starts with 2000 stocks, each worth (0.00125 x [entity score])% of $10,000,000. (The price updates every turn or every time the score updates.) These stocks can be purchased by anyone, even enemies. Stock purchasing would work somewhat like the market, where people can put out "sell" or "buy" offers.

When the entity's score increases by 250 (for nations) or 1000 (for alliances), the stocks either split or consolidate, depending on what the leader of that entity chooses*. However, stocks cannot split more than 6 times in a row (total volume cannot be greater than 128,000), and they cannot consolidate if any stockholder has only 1 share.

If total stock volume is 128k and a holder holds only 1 share at the time of a volume/value change, the stocks will consolidate and that holder will be forced to automatically sell**. Stocks also cannot consolidate below 125 total shares in existence.

 

The stocks/futures also get their own graphs on the market page⁺, and are factored into a new overall market graph, which averages overall resource price and overall stock price.

 

So, leaders of Orbis, questions? Comments? Concerns?

 

 

*I propose that a choice would be given to the leader every time this occurs.

**If no buy offers exist when a stock is auto-sold, it is sold back to the controlling entity, which has a net income tax of 5-10% added until it is paid off.

⁺This could be overall stock prices (or trading frequency, or both) > top 10 traded entities, top ten priced entities, etc., > each of those entities having its own graph -- just like the current market graphs, but with an extra layer of subdivisions.

Edited March 5, 2016 by CosmoZombie

[Dimitri Valko]

It would be nice if each nation also had like five customisable major companies that could be invested in by any leader, and stock prices would be lower during wartime, etc. and it could be tied into Commerce.

[WISD0MTREE]

IDK, the stocks sounds kind of complicated for how simple PaW is. (Considering there is no difference between bombers or fighters, grades of gas and other oil products, etc.) I like the futures market, though. 

[Fox Fire]

Do stocks represent ownership? What if I buy a majority stock?

How is the money handled? Is it generated out of thin air or are alliances/nations expected to pay it? If the latter, what if they cant afford to pay?

 

EDIT: Clarification. 

Edited March 4, 2016 by Fox Fire

[CosmoZombie]

Do stocks represent ownership? What if I buy a majority stock?

How is the money handled? Is it generated out of thin air or are alliances/nations expected to pay it? If the latter, what if they cant afford to pay?

 

Stocks do not represent ownership. They are futures (betting on the success of the entity), but I prefer to use the word stocks because of the tangible volume and splitting/consolidating, which futures do not do.

 

The money is not generated out of thin air; whoever buys a stock pays for it. If somebody is forced to auto-sell with no buy offers, they sell it to the original entity. THIS money appears out of thin air (the entity does not pay out of pocket), but 10% of the entity's net income disappears until the amount taken out equals the price of the stock.

[seabasstion]

i think it would be very problematic to implement without either making it ripe for abuse or just flat out not working. i love the concept though but forcing payment will be an issue

 

 

just so i'm understanding what you're suggesting i will describe a situation:

 

let's take today's food price as an example. the current sell price is 95 per unit and i produce exactly 0 food for my nation - i import all food.

 

i could buy as much as i can at this price since it is low and create a stockpile, but i would rather not since i would rather use my capital to invest in infrastructure instead so that i can create a return on these funds and subsequently purchase the 2000 food a day my people need to survive.

 

this is the gamble on my part - i could use my incoming funds to earn additional revenue for me (through infrastructure) at the expense of the risk of a war breaking out in this timeframe that would cause me to purchase food for a much more expensive 150 per unit. if war doesn't happen i win as i make more money than i could if i sink that capital in non earning food, or war does break out and i lose meaning i now have to purchase food at a higher price to keep my people fed and offset all the additional infrastructure earnings

 

so being the wise investor i am i would like to hedge my bet that war is not coming in the next 90 days and purchase futures contract on 10000 food for 105 per unit. there could be another nation in the game that goes - we'll food is 93 now and i dont think war is coming in 90 days so i'll agree to sell at that price in 90 days to this nation

 

ok great - we have a transaction

 

 

2 weeks later war breaks out and it involves both alliances. the buying nation is now blockaded with zero cash and the selling nation moved all farms into barracks and factories. so what happens from here?

 

since we dont have real life bank accounts associated with our pnw nations how do we not only enforce the payment but also allow the transaction to happen since it would circumvent blockades? lets say the selling nation only has 2000 food, does the game take the balance of this nation to -8000 food and thus spawn artificial food in the game?

 

if one were looking to cheat they could just create a multi nation, agree to buy 100,000 food for 100 each and let the multi nation idle the contract is executed and the new multi is taken to -100,000 food and given 10M dollars. this nation could then use this money to send out back to the original parent or obfuscate it deeper with additional future contracts where they agree to buy 10M worth of uranium at an high price for example

 

if the solution to this is to not treat it like an actual future contract and have the money put into some type of escrow then...well it kind of defeats the purpose of having a futures contract doesn't it? i might as well just buy the food at the now cheaper price if it ties up my funds in doing so. so while i would personally LOVE to see this type of economic system in place, i feel it would be ripe with fraud and problematic implementation that could be used to circumvent blockades or just flat out cheat 

[Valdoroth]

It already sorta exists. Buy a bunch of X military resource. Sell during next large war when prices spike. It's just simple investment in the long run.

 

I'd prefer to see an extra rank or two added to alliances or different tax rates per resource type OR having different types of taxes (% score vs your AA's score, or # of cities = % per city, or based maybe something with government types - X% if Y government, otherwise Z%.)

[CosmoZombie]

Seabasstion, this won't involve any tangible resources, so your situation won't happen.

There's no contracts or long-term purchase agreements. It's simply betting on the future score of the entity, but with more "stock-market-y" stuff like splitting & consolidation and a tangible volume.

Edited March 5, 2016 by CosmoZombie

[CosmoZombie]

It already sorta exists. Buy a bunch of X military resource. Sell during next large war when prices spike. It's just simple investment in the long run.

 

I'd prefer to see an extra rank or two added to alliances or different tax rates per resource type OR having different types of taxes (% score vs your AA's score, or # of cities = % per city, or based maybe something with government types - X% if Y government, otherwise Z%.)

It already sorta exists. Buy a bunch of X military resource. Sell during next large war when prices spike. It's just simple investment in the long run.

 

I'd prefer to see an extra rank or two added to alliances or different tax rates per resource type OR having different types of taxes (% score vs your AA's score, or # of cities = % per city, or based maybe something with government types - X% if Y government, otherwise Z%.)

Right. But that's simply market investment rather than futures betting [speaking of betting, I'd bet you didn't read thoroughly ]. Also, you should create your own thread to ask for that stuff.

Edited March 5, 2016 by CosmoZombie

[seabasstion]

Seabasstion, this won't involve any tangible resources, so your situation won't happen.

There's no contracts or long-term purchase agreements. It's simply betting on the future score of the entity, but with more "stock-market-y" stuff like splitting & consolidation and a tangible volume.

I'm sorry I don't understand how this would work . Could you describe a situation and the actual series of events to occur? I don't think you are describing what a stock future really is so I'm getting hung up on that

[Fronin]

Now alliances will start wars to manipulate the futures markets.

 

 

This sounds like a good idea.

[Woot]

Seabasstion's comment is a pretty good rundown of why a commodity futures market would be interesting and useful but can't really work in P&W.

 

As for the weird stock market suggestion by the OP, some of what you've outlined (splitting/consolidating) is pointless complication and some of it (money generated out of thin air and paid back to the server by 10% of income) is extremely exploitable.

 

But I don't think having "stock" in nations makes much sense however it might be implemented.

Let's remember that the basic idea of a stock offering in real life is a way of taking out loans for a venture, and paying them back proportional to the success of the venture.

This makes a lot of sense for a new business, because it has a high chance of failing and not being able to pay back a conventional loan.

This doesn't make a ton of sense for a P&W nation where we're making extremely predictable investments. A conventional loan with an interest rate and a due date is far more natural- which is what people already do, with messages and trade offers.