Lu Xun

So, is Partisan trying to use me to create a post-nuclear explosion as a last-ditch WMD tactic to avoid an imminent loss? Also, @ James, too late.

Wait, did DEIC's MoD just leave 48 hours before their probable counter to Synd was launched?

Screwed up with tank count, I should redo it, but I'm just inferring it from the recorded (and correct) attrition figure. So I guess Mensynd is losing, despite all your rhetoric about air superiority.

Bet is upset that I'm counting Cobalt with Mensynd, but that's what they're doing, right? Also, the stats for today should be a bit messy as Cobalt counts as reinforcements, but interestingly enough Paracovenant is still not doing well; aircraft and tanks are attritioning faster than they should against Mensynd. Maybe it's just the addition of Cobalt that's inflating Mensynd performance, let's see what happens tomorrow.

Format: Date Coalition Alliance Name Member Count / Average Score / Total Score / Percent Change Total Member Count / Average Score / Total Score / Percent Change Total Soldiers / Total Tanks Mensynd vs Paracovenant 7:06 PM Server '16.Feb.9 Mensynd The Syndicate 61 / 1,476.77 / 90,082.97 (-0.4%) Black Knights 104 / 790.05 / 82,165.33 (+0.6%) The Knights Radiant 89 / 818.96 / 72,887.72 (-16.9%) Mensa HQ 56 / 1,005.61 / 56,314.05 (-2.0%) Seven Kingdoms 42 / 1,182.76 / 49,676.09 (-24.1%) Cobalt 56 / 778.40 / 43,590.22 Roz Wei 79 / 467.66 / 36,945.36 (-4.5%) The Chola 51 / 589.86 / 30,082.69 (+0.0%) Guardian 16 / 1,248.29 / 19,972.63 (-3.2%) The Kings Parliament 28 / 653.72 / 18,304.27 (-8.3%) The Coalition 9 / 1,624.32 / 14,618.86 (+0.0%) The Jedi Order 21 / 573.88 / 12,051.53 Total 612 / 860.61 / 526,691.72 (+3.9%) Total Soldiers 39,241,485 (-10.0%) / Total Tanks 2,001,669 (-16.9%) / Total Aircraft 233,432 (-3.5%) Paracovenant United Purple Nations 132 / 1219.45 / 160,967.34 (-2.5%) Viridian Entente 110 / 1,163.05 / 127,935.02 (-3.1%) Rose 80 / 1009.18 / 80,734.62 (+2.1%) Alpha 29 / 2,433.13 / 70,560.69 (+2.6%) Arrgh 74 / 544.19 / 40,269.77 (-2.2%) Phoenix 24 / 1183.91 / 28,413.79 (-2.1%) The Light Federation 39 / 620.82 / 24,211.90 (-5.2%) North American Confederacy 27 / 808.85 / 21,839.02 (-1.5%) Fark 25 / 825.59 / 20,639.87 (+0.1%) Vanguard 20 / 906.61 / 18,132.14 (+0.5%) Shuriken 38 / 307.24 / 11,675.06 (+9.0%) Socialist Workers Front 27 / 424.60 / 11,464.12 (-3.2%) Charming Friends 18 / 455.20 / 8,193.67 (+9.1%) Total 643 / 972.06 / 635,024.91 625,037.01 (-1.6%) Total Soldiers 39,419,536 (+7.0%) / Total Tanks 2,100,646 (-6.5%) / Total Aircraft 215,029 (-7.1%)

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If you look at the proceedings of the war it's the bandwagoners who have been focused on, instead of the primary alliances. It seems to have worked to some extent; the bandwagoners tend to be small, relatively uninvested, and difficult to protect. Bandwagoners are good offensive firepower when they're winning the war, but they're likely to turn white if the enemy coalition, all of a sudden, decides that they're fun targets. Not saying that TKR is one of those, but I would assume that's the rationale.

Hey, Parti, baby, what's going on with this rumor I'm hearing? I heard you were playing to lose this entire war. Disappointing.

Format: Score / Soldiers / Tanks / Aircraft Mensynd Terminus Est 36,093.16 / 2,484,086 / 119,711 / 14,485 Pantheon 54,761.10 / 2,219,434 / 78,624 / 8,727 Sparta 38,242.14 / 1,766,256 / 62,084 / 6,434 Total, including long-shots: 129,096.4 / 6,469,776 / 260,419 / 29,646 Paracovenant: Brotherhood of Clouds 64,275.78 / 4,613,376 / 230,982 / 24,160 The Dutch East India Company 56,891.70 / 4,682,835 / 157,268 / 20,849 Cornerstone 49,308.00 / 4,102,009 / 265,788 / 21,651 Cobalt 45,735.42 / 3,583,599 / 88,293 / 13,824 Total, including long-shots: 216,210.9 / 16,981,819 / 742,331 / 80,484

I guess if you guys are actually reading it, I'll do reserves.

Interesting night. VE and UPN launch a concerted strike on TKR, VE hits SK, and Alpha refocuses from destroying Roz Wei to SK. Best part, I think, is that your boys caught Mensynd with their pants down. They seemed to have launched another wave of pointless declares on Rose, which has already been reduced to little more than a punching bag, so some of their offensive slots are locked.

As promised, I brought in the total aircraft count after the tank ratio dropped to the margin of error. Looks like Mensynd's still a bit ahead, but not by much. I need to sleep now. Good fighting.

Looks like you engaged while I was compiling stats. Thanks for coming, best of luck.

@Memph: right now, I already regret committing to this, so I get the feeling the reason Zoot or others haven't hijacked this position is because they want to condemn me to it. My trading hasn't gone well as of late, so I'm working on other ventures, and even then, I really cannot spare the time to trade barbs here, much less play the game itself (which would see me committed to it and probably rolled for laughs by so and so). Format: Date Coalition Alliance Name Member Count / Average Score / Total Score / Percent Change Total Member Count / Average Score / Total Score / Percent Change Total Soldiers / Total Tanks Mensynd vs Paracovenant 11:29 PM Server '16.Feb.8 Mensynd The Syndicate 61 / 1,482.07 / 90,406.28 (-2.9%) The Knights Radiant 90 / 975.14 / 87,762.22 (-1.0%) Black Knights 104 / 785.46 / 81,687.32(+0.0%) Seven Kingdoms 42 / 1,559.70 / 65,507.27 (-0.9%) Mensa HQ 56 / 1,026.65 / 57,492.29 (-1.1%) Roz Wei 80 / 483.55 / 38,684.34 (-8.2%) The Chola 51 / 589.85 / 30,082.58 (+0.0%) Guardian 16 / 1,289.17 / 20,626.76 (-8.5%) The Kings Parliament 29 / 688.36 / 19,962.33 (-4.0%) The Coalition 9 / 1,623.93 / 14,615.40 (-0.5%) Total 538 / 942.06 / 506,826.79 (-2.1%) Total Soldiers 43,590,107 (-1%) / Total Tanks 2,408,747 (+1.1%) / Total Aircraft 241,996 Paracovenant United Purple Nations 133 / 1241.12 / 165,069.47 Viridian Entente 109 / 1,234.28 / 132,012.08 (-1.9%) Rose 80 / 988.67 / 79,093.55 (-6.2%) Alpha 29 / 2,496.82 / 72,407.73 (+2.9%) Arrgh 75 / 548.79 / 41,159.23 (+1.5%) Phoenix 25 / 1161.24 / 29,031.07 (-0.3%) The Light Federation 39 / 654.80 / 25,537.05 (-10.8%) North American Confederacy 27 / 821.51 / 22,180.77 (-5.4%) Fark 25 / 817.46 / 20,436.58 (-9.8%) Vanguard 20 / 901.79 / 18,035.86 (-0.3%) Socialist Workers Front 27 / 438.67 / 11,844.21 (-13.9%) Shuriken 36 / 297.41 / 10,706.94 (+10.2%) Charming Friends 17 / 441.79 / 7,510.37 (-16.4%) Total 642 / 989.14 / 469,955.44 635,024.91 (-7.1%) Total Soldiers 42,366,479 (+30.8%) / Total Tanks 2,246,705 (+38.7%) / Total Aircraft 231,426

It appears my browser decided to eat my post, so I'll have to redo it. Correlation does not imply causation is one of the most basic things you learn in statistics or science. However, I am not trying to say that tanks cause aircraft; I am trying to say that the presence of tanks is highly correlated to the presence of aircraft to the degree that if tanks exist, there is probably a certain amount of aircraft. Statistics is not an exact science; it often attempts to use a partial sample to infer definite conclusions about a population at large, and as a consequence, it must consider its own propensity to error when sampling. It produces useful results, but because it's not precise, you can't simply use one datapoint to disprove an entire dataset. I am not saying definitely that aircraft aren't imba or that air control leads to the presence of tanks. I am simply saying that tanks are correlated to aircraft at a certain level, and I feel confident enough to use tanks as a proxy for aircraft, even if aircraft are the independent variable that determines tanks as the dependent variable. I acknowledge that at a certain level, using implied aircraft levels from tank levels becomes too imprecise to present concrete and useful results, and at that level I will begin to add direct measurement of aircraft levels.

Look, I don't care and I have no idea whether or not aircraft are imba; they've been complained about in previous wars already, but according to the Wiki, tanks and soldiers can create ground control that can reduce aircraft effectiveness. Perhaps that is in error. What I do care about is that tanks are correlated to aircraft; let's say, for instance, we associate a lot of cats with the relative absence of mice . That's correlation, and it's arguably causation, cats eat mice, lots of cats means that mice lasts a relatively short period of time. Yet, even though an absence of mice does not imply the presence of cats, there is still a correlation. Sometimes there may be other reasons for the absence of mice, such as a heavy use of pesticides to kill mice. But if you compare it to the baseline case (there is a normal quantity of mice), if there are no mice, you have a greater expectation that there are a lot of cats. The point of r = .95 is that tanks, to a great degree, imply the presence or absence of aircraft. If it is as you say, that losing air superiority means that tanks won't last long, the presence of tanks implies that air superiority has not yet been lost. It's not a 1:1 correlation, of course, but it's enough that tanks can be used as a proxy for the presence of aircraft, which is why I continue to use tanks in lieu of aircraft. Only if, say, UPN enters, and the ratio of aircraft come so close that it becomes impossible to infer aircraft numbers accurately from tanks alone, will I begin counting aircraft.

I will laugh if 48 hours after I drop OS-Cobalt from war tracking, I have to add them on again. No hard feelings, seriously, I'm just trying to make sure the war tracker is accurate.

What starts as a raid may not end as a raid. After all, you met a full-scale counter by TKR; you are a VE protectorate, and Cobalt has an MDoaP with Rose. I will remove your alliance from my statistics at next update.

@ Ansom: So once again, is your war a raid / counter-raid on Guardian and by TKR? Since, you know, like, you kept it ambiguous.

I'm in your game, touching your harblz.

Aside from "competing in the Special Olympics", reading comprehension is a standard Internet catchphrase. If you want me to address your point directly, Rose can't be a weakling in the sense that they are or were a huge alliance; the loss list represents more who's getting focused. In a fair fight, though, I'd say that your combat performance suggests you're better than 30-40% of currently engaged combatants, and you're solidly 50th percentile when it comes to all alliances in the game; i.e, your first response to wartime wasn't to delete your nation, so you can't be that bad.

Congratulations, you dragged bandwagoners and Guardian into the losing aisle despite their being on the winning side of the war. Next stop, The Coalition.

I actually included you as part of the Paragon forces engaging Guardian, since you had an extended exchange with an alliance at war. Will you be extending hostilities? Will Cobalt continue to wage war, as, per my calculations, the NS difference is still extremely tight (less than 4%)?

I'll provide aircraft figures if somehow tank ratio drops to 1.2 or so; around this range the implied aircraft ratio becomes sufficiently wide that a precise aircraft figure is useful. As to what The Covenant is doing: Format: Score / Soldiers / Tanks Covenant "Reserves" UPN: 166,095.41 / 13,205,921 (+1.7%) / 667,072 (+4.1%) BoC: 63,452.51 (+.7%) / 4,384,806 (+.8%) / 215,898 (+3.0%) DEIC: 55,808.46 (+2.7%) / 4,532,135 (+8.7%) / 138,138 (+15.0%) Total 285,356.38 (+.7%) / 22,122,862 (+2.9%) / 1,021,108 (+5.2%) If tC were to enter now, the implied aircraft ratio would be 1.14 - 1.03 in favor of Paracovenant. tC, I think, has a bit of time to engage, and BoC and DEIC have more room to militarize.

@Bagel: Well, I'm not sure if you're just being dense or if this is a railroad. I would like to clarify two things; first, I have no beef with TOP and despite certain bad diplomatic decisions, I have the utmost respect for them and this is why you get an explanation. Second, tanks are a statistically valid proxy for aircraft due to R = .95. I have used tanks already, and for continuity's sake I will continue to use tanks. You can assume that the coalition with the more tanks also has more aircraft, and that tank ratios are roughly within 15% of aircraft ratios between the coalitions. That said, I am overdue for including all factions as part of reinforcements. Format: Date Coalition Alliance Name Member Count / Average Score / Total Score / Percent Change Total Member Count / Average Score / Total Score / Percent Change Total Soldiers / Total Tanks Mensynd vs Paracovenant 11:45 PM Server '16.Feb.7 Mensynd The Syndicate 62 / 1,501.60 / 93,099.37 (-.3%) The Knights Radiant 90 / 984.85 / 88,636.32 (-1.2%) Black Knights 104 / 785.23 / 81,663.47 (-1.2%) Seven Kingdoms 42 / 1,573.56 / 66,089.53 (-2.1%) Mensa HQ 56 / 1,038.48 / 58,155.02 (-.2%) Roz Wei 80 / 526.98 / 42,158.79 (-9.2%) The Chola 51 / 589.30 / 30,054.08 Guardian 16 / 1,409.28 / 22,548.41 (-9.8%) The Kings Parliament 29 / 716.93 / 20,792.24 (-13.6%) The Coalition 9 / 1,631.44 / 14,682.95 (-0.5%) Total 539 / 960.82 / 517,880.18 (+3.2%) Total Soldiers 43,641,634 (+8.3%) / Total Tanks 2,435,660 (+.7%) Paragon Viridian Entente 109 / 1,234.28 / 134,536.11 (-3.1%) Rose 80 / 1,054.25 / 84,339.94 (-10.2%) Alpha 28 / 2,513.27 / 70,371.58 (+0.2%) Arrgh 73 / 555.44 / 40,547.15 (+1%) Phoenix 25 / 1164.90 / 29,122.38 The Light Federation 39 / 734.24 / 28,635.22 (-12.5%) Odd Squad 43 / 607.28 / 26,113.07 North American Confederacy 27 / 868.65 / 23,453.47 Fark 25 / 906.50 / 22,662.61 (-12.1%) Vanguard 20 / 904.84 / 18,096.88 (-1.5%) Socialist Workers Front 27 / 509.30 / 13,751.17 Shuriken 36 / 269.79 / 9,712.38 Charming Friends 17 / 528.28 / 8,980.68 (-15.7%) Total 549 / 929.55 / 510,322.64 (-6%) Total Soldiers 32,401,656 (+29.9%) / Total Tanks 1,620,142 (+12.2%) Tank ratio is 1.5:1 in favor of Mensynd. Implied aircraft ratio is 1.43-1.58.