Jump to content

Caecus

Members
  • Posts

    1171
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Blog Entries posted by Caecus

  1. Caecus
    In previous posts on the rise of TEst, I regarded TEst's paperless policy as political ingenuity. I still hold that to be true. However, the recent war and the dog piling against TEst merits some observation as to why the paperless system failed in otherwise a successful system. After all, this is the same paperless alliance that went from a small, insignificant alliance at the beginning of the year to the top alliance post Silent War, and at the end of the year is expected to be rolled back into obscurity.
     
    What went wrong:
     
    The paperless system was a flexible system that allowed TEst to dance between two blocs by a complex system of backchanneling that requires hyperactivity and charisma on part of TEst's leadership. But the paperless system thrives only in the context of two spheres who are locked in bitter combat against each other. The dissolution of the Rose sphere proved to be the end of the paperless system. TEst needed to present itself as harmless and innocuous, not as a potential second sphere. Failing that, TEst needed to form an opposition sphere against the Syndisphere. In both instances, TEst has failed.
     
    TEst rolled any and all potential allies, thus alienating herself. Due to her "friendly relations" with the Syndisphere, TEst's targets were limited to everyone unrelated to the Syndisphere, ironically the same alliances which could have helped her in an eventual fight. TEst's aggressive actions also cemented in the minds of others that TEst is a powerful alliance worthy of becoming a new bloc leader, thus failing the need to present herself as harmless.
     
    Paperless was a system that was good under a specific circumstance. Absent of that specific circumstance, and TEst is left without allies against the hegemon.
     
    Why should TEst form a new sphere?
     
    The system of PnW (and its potential flaw) is that it forces all the players into a realist paradigm (see "international realism") but forces the players to propagate the system willingly. The realist paradigm states that a closed international system with multiple alliances forces war upon one another until an eventual hegemon emerges. The collapse of the Paracovenant marked the rise of the Syndisphere as the hegemon, a natural conclusion to all realist paradigms. However, TEst, due to its paperless policy, was in the fringes of the sphere.
     
    In a post on "Old FA vs. New FA," Pre posted
     
    "You don't get to tell us how to play the game. You can't make us form a sphere to counter you. You can't make us stop fighting people who piss us off, even if you view those as wars of boredom. Enjoy sitting on top, we don't care that you're there."
     
    and his reasoning, strictly speaking, is correct. The Syndisphere cannot make TEst form a new sphere to counter them. However, under the circumstances of the realist paradigm, if TEst is interested in maintaining its standing and its power garnered through the paperless policy during the Rose/Syndicate wars, she must do so to counter-balance the hegemon. If not, TEst risks the possibility of being a target of attack from a sphere several times its size.
     
    The Future:
     
    TEst et. al. may be forced to abandon the paperless system and reach out to the alliances not affiliated with the Syndisphere. This would ironically require TEst to negotiate with alliances who only recently fought bitterly against the paperless hegemon in wars seemingly designed to flaunt TEst's power. Her negotiation will likely prove unsuccessful until those alliances face the brunt of the Syndisphere war machine themselves. It may be several months before another sphere may be formed.
     
    There in lies the problem of games such as these: the game sets itself in the realist paradigm, yet has no means of naturally dissolving a hegemon from power without the conscious consent of thousands of players. TEst member posts argue (and rightfully so) that the hegemonic nature of the Syndisphere will eventually end the game (again, a natural conclusion to the realist paradigm). Therefore, one of two things must happen in the new year:
     
    1. TEst manages to assemble a motley crew of everyone she rolled to counter tS in a new sphere
    or
    2. The Syndisphere needs to willingly break up to maintain the realist paradigm.
     
    Both of which is highly unlikely. Though in this writer's personal opinion, the former may be more so.
     

    TEst needs to make the argument to everyone she rolled that TEst is today, everyone else may be tomorrow (a very convincing argument, in light of Mensa's dire need to water their holy Dio tree with blood often).
  2. Caecus
    With new testimony coming to light, I felt an update was necessary:
     
    https://politicsandwar.com/forums/index.php?/blog/204/entry-800-the-real-current-terminus-est/
     
    The 168 Day War was one of the many conflicts between the Rose and Syndisphere blocs. The war itself never brought the same decisive victory as seen in the Silent War, however, it is notable in that Alpha makes its debut on the world stage. Arising from the war is the formation of Sparta as an upper tier alliance sided with Alpha, and the grudge between the Syndicate and Alpha over treaty clauses and obligations. Partisan notes in the blog "We were perfectly fine with [Alpha] entering in Roz Wei. We were not okay with [Alpha] entering on SK after [Alpha] had promised the former." This would become a "catalyst" for Steve's War.
     
    On April 16th, Seabasstion, then the leader of Sparta, staged an intricate military drill which faked a combat scenario with Terminus Est. This involved a number of Sparta's allies, including the dominant upper tier alliance Alpha.
     
    In Pre's blog on the "real" TEst, Seabass confessed an ulterior motive: to purge Spartan leadership and merge with TEst. Seabasstion felt that the majority of the leadership in Sparta was "poor" and the military drill was designed to throw Sparta into "chaos" to "cut the fat." In my own post on the same page, I extrapolated that Seabass didn't inform any allies of the drill because there was a possibility that the news it was fake could inform back to Sparta and Spartan leadership, which was not challenged. For Seabass, "[The drill] wasn't designed to hurt Sparta's allies. It was designed to destroy Sparta itself." His hopes were that Sparta would go to a "better place" (topic/12297-sparta-announcement/). Lo Pan's post notes that "The only deception on Terminus Est's part was not announcing t(o) the public that both Sparta and TEst were discussing a merge for a couple months before we actually did."
     
    The military drill, along with the subsequent demilitarization following the announcement of Terminus Est on the evening of the 16th, placed Alpha and her allies in a position of unpreparedness.
     
    *It is now worth noting that Seabasstion, the former leader of Sparta, steps down and said that he will leave. He will join TEst following the Spartan merge.
     
    On April 18th, the Syndicate, Mensa HQ, and Terminus Est begin militarizing to settle old grudges. On April 22nd, Terminus Est and the Syndicate launch an attack on Alpha. Terminus Est cited the Rose leak as the casus belli (https://politicsandwar.com/forums/index.php?/topic/12330-press-release-from-the-syndicate-on-alpha-and-recent-events/?p=232159). Syndicate cited Alpha's attempt to "isolate" the Syndicate as the CB. On April 23rd, in light of the rapid demobilization from the staged drill and Rose Sphere's unwillingness to fight, Alpha declares it will not ask allies to join the fight. On April 26th, with minimal losses, Terminus Est leaves the conflict.
     
    *In previous posts, I have alluded to the possibility that Seabass was a Terminus Est plant designed to weaken Alpha's ally and give Terminus Est a casus belli to roll Alpha. I retract those statements. I now believe that Seabass was an independent actor who wanted to weaken Alpha's ally and accidentally gave Terminus Est a CB to roll Alpha. To which I said, "[there was] no conscious genius on [seabass's] part [for the demise of half the sphere]."
     
    Terminus Est quickly disposes the majority of Alpha's conventional military troops and withdraws from the conflict, thus avoiding further losses from Alpha's nuclear stockpile, leaving The Syndicate and Alpha to incur losses of their own and to slug out the grudge of the 168 Day war. Seabasstion, in preparation for several months to try and merge with TEst behind the backs of the rest of Spartan leadership and membership, achieves his goal when Sparta surrenders to the Black Knights in the following NPO war.
     
    The consequences of Steve's War is most reflective in hindsight: With a dash of luck, TEst is given a unique opportunity to roll an alliance they expressed interest in attacking for a while (Alpha) in almost a 3 to 1 with the backing of the Syndisphere and later almost doubles its membership from the Spartan merge.
  3. Caecus
    Yet again, the Silent War is another example of Terminus Est consolidating its hold on the sphere. With a relatively exhausted Pantheon now finishing up the conflict against the VE, Terminus Est, along with Roz Wei and Arrgh descend on the weakened force. Likewise, the superior numerical advantage, combined with an already weakened military force leaves Terminus Est and allies with little significant damage.
     
    With Alpha's declaration on Mensa HQ in defense of NPO, the Syndisphere had three choices regarding deployment of military reserves: to honor treaty obligations with Pantheon and attack Terminus Est and her allies, to defend Mensa HQ against Alpha's attack or both. It is this writer's suspicion that there was backroom dealing or pure intimidation on the part of Terminus Est to have the Syndisphere choose to attack Alpha. No doubt the previous 2 month conflict and Alpha's personal history also played a part. In light of Terminus Est's previous cooperation with TS during Steve's War, Terminus Est and the Syndisphere may have also come to an agreement to have the events play out as it did.
     
    Regardless, the final nail in the coffin was complete. Alpha, still exhausted from the onslaught from the previous wars, suffers further decline. Pantheon surrenders to Terminus Est. Terminus Est now dominates the upper tier unilaterally. Both from a tactical and strategic standpoint, it is clear Terminus Est is the ultimate victor of these last few wars.
     
    *It is worth noting that Seabasstion, the former leader of Sparta, now resides in Terminus Est.
     
    Terminus Est will likely surge ahead of Alpha and Pantheon for the foreseeable future, and will likely capitalize on the aftermath of the Silent War. Pantheon and Alpha alone cannot challenge the numerical superiority of Terminus Est in a conventional war, disregarding the unlikelihood of the two alliances becoming partners.
     
    Challenges for Terminus Est in the future is maintaining political relations in backdoor channels. With the rise of the Syndisphere as hegemon and the breakup of Paragon, it is imperative for Terminus Est to not present itself as a second sphere. The paperless policy helps obscure any potential formation of a second sphere, and the artful use of the policy has been exhibited by Terminus Est leadership for some time now. With Pantheon (the only real contestant still remotely capable of posing a threat to TEst) battered in the aftermath of the Silent War, Terminus Est can expect some time of peaceful growth before a potential conflict looms.
     
    Terminus Est's strengths has been the quiet manipulation between two spheres to always find easy victories that consolidate its power. From Steve's War to the Silent War, Terminus Est has placed itself as a military reserve force to be used by one side or the other to decisively turn the odds of any given conflict. Their strength is also their weakness, since Paragon has been decisively defeated and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Having connections to both spheres and playing on the two sphere's focus each other, it will be in the interest of Terminus Est to either prop up Paragon, or at least maintain a myth of a reborn Rose sphere.
  4. Caecus
    On June 13th, with Alpha's military stockpiles depleted in Steve's War, Alpha's allies are attacked by the Syndisphere in a daring blitz. With Alpha's military reserves depleted, along with the lingering lull in military readiness on the side of Paragon, the Syndisphere wins a stunning victory.
     
    Several events happen which further benefits Terminus Est. First, Alpha has fought a prolonged war that has stretched her resources to the limits, further weakening Terminus Est's competition in the upper tier. Secondly, the surrender and break up of Sparta (another upper tier alliance which competes with Terminus Est) ultimately resulted in the expansion of Pantheon and Terminus Est's membership from upper tier nations. Thirdly, it is of note, that Terminus Est uses the NPO war to rebuild and further consolidate holdings.
  5. Caecus
    With the loss of the Silent War, the Rose bloc has now more or less dissolved from the once powerful opposing bloc against the Syndisphere. In the wake of the aftermath, there are a few clear victors: the Syndisphere achieved a tactical victory over the opposing Paragon forces. However, it is worth noting the true victor of these events: Terminus Est.
     
    It is the opinion of this writer that of all the participants in the Silent War, Terminus Est is the only alliance which achieved a tactical and strategic victory that now propels TEst to a position of upper tier dominance. With the destruction of Pantheon, Sparta and Alpha as competitors to the once small and reclusive force, TEst has now achieved a numerical superiority in upper tier nations following this war. There is little room for doubt that following this war, TEst intends to capitalize on its gains by compounding nation growth in light of the minimal damage received during the war. It will likely be very difficult for Pantheon and Alpha to rise to the challenge in the next global conflict.
  6. Caecus
    The 168 Day War was one of the many conflicts between the Rose and Syndisphere blocs. The war itself never brought the same decisive victory as seen in the Silent War, however, it is notable in that Alpha makes its debut on the world stage. Arising from the war is the formation of Sparta as an upper tier alliance sided with Alpha, and the grudge between the Syndicate and Alpha over treaty clauses and obligations.
     
    On April 16th, Seabasstion, then the leader of Sparta, staged an intricate military drill which faked a combat scenario with Terminus Est. This involved a number of Sparta's allies, including the dominant upper tier alliance Alpha. The military drill, along with the subsequent demilitarization following the announcement of Terminus Est on the military drill, placed Alpha and her allies in a position of unpreparedness when it was clear the Syndisphere took advantage of the situation to mobilize military and settle the grudge of the 168 Day War.
     
    *It is now worth noting that Seabasstion, the former leader of Sparta, steps down and leaves to join Guardian.
     
    On April 22nd, Terminus Est and the Syndicate launch an attack on Alpha. On April 23rd, in light of the rapid demobilization from the staged drill, Alpha declares it will not ask allies to join the fight. On April 26th, with minimal losses, Terminus Est leaves the conflict.
     
    The consequences of Steve's War is most reflective in hindsight: Terminus Est quickly disposes the majority of Alpha's conventional military troops and withdraws from the conflict to avoid further losses from Alpha's nuclear stockpile, leaving The Syndicate and Alpha to incur losses of their own.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and the Guidelines of the game and community.