The Events Leading Up To Steve's War/TEst's Lucky Break (Updated)
With new testimony coming to light, I felt an update was necessary:
https://politicsandwar.com/forums/index.php?/blog/204/entry-800-the-real-current-terminus-est/
The 168 Day War was one of the many conflicts between the Rose and Syndisphere blocs. The war itself never brought the same decisive victory as seen in the Silent War, however, it is notable in that Alpha makes its debut on the world stage. Arising from the war is the formation of Sparta as an upper tier alliance sided with Alpha, and the grudge between the Syndicate and Alpha over treaty clauses and obligations. Partisan notes in the blog "We were perfectly fine with [Alpha] entering in Roz Wei. We were not okay with [Alpha] entering on SK after [Alpha] had promised the former." This would become a "catalyst" for Steve's War.
On April 16th, Seabasstion, then the leader of Sparta, staged an intricate military drill which faked a combat scenario with Terminus Est. This involved a number of Sparta's allies, including the dominant upper tier alliance Alpha.
In Pre's blog on the "real" TEst, Seabass confessed an ulterior motive: to purge Spartan leadership and merge with TEst. Seabasstion felt that the majority of the leadership in Sparta was "poor" and the military drill was designed to throw Sparta into "chaos" to "cut the fat." In my own post on the same page, I extrapolated that Seabass didn't inform any allies of the drill because there was a possibility that the news it was fake could inform back to Sparta and Spartan leadership, which was not challenged. For Seabass, "[The drill] wasn't designed to hurt Sparta's allies. It was designed to destroy Sparta itself." His hopes were that Sparta would go to a "better place" (topic/12297-sparta-announcement/). Lo Pan's post notes that "The only deception on Terminus Est's part was not announcing t(o) the public that both Sparta and TEst were discussing a merge for a couple months before we actually did."
The military drill, along with the subsequent demilitarization following the announcement of Terminus Est on the evening of the 16th, placed Alpha and her allies in a position of unpreparedness.
*It is now worth noting that Seabasstion, the former leader of Sparta, steps down and said that he will leave. He will join TEst following the Spartan merge.
On April 18th, the Syndicate, Mensa HQ, and Terminus Est begin militarizing to settle old grudges. On April 22nd, Terminus Est and the Syndicate launch an attack on Alpha. Terminus Est cited the Rose leak as the casus belli (https://politicsandwar.com/forums/index.php?/topic/12330-press-release-from-the-syndicate-on-alpha-and-recent-events/?p=232159). Syndicate cited Alpha's attempt to "isolate" the Syndicate as the CB. On April 23rd, in light of the rapid demobilization from the staged drill and Rose Sphere's unwillingness to fight, Alpha declares it will not ask allies to join the fight. On April 26th, with minimal losses, Terminus Est leaves the conflict.
*In previous posts, I have alluded to the possibility that Seabass was a Terminus Est plant designed to weaken Alpha's ally and give Terminus Est a casus belli to roll Alpha. I retract those statements. I now believe that Seabass was an independent actor who wanted to weaken Alpha's ally and accidentally gave Terminus Est a CB to roll Alpha. To which I said, "[there was] no conscious genius on [seabass's] part [for the demise of half the sphere]."
Terminus Est quickly disposes the majority of Alpha's conventional military troops and withdraws from the conflict, thus avoiding further losses from Alpha's nuclear stockpile, leaving The Syndicate and Alpha to incur losses of their own and to slug out the grudge of the 168 Day war. Seabasstion, in preparation for several months to try and merge with TEst behind the backs of the rest of Spartan leadership and membership, achieves his goal when Sparta surrenders to the Black Knights in the following NPO war.
The consequences of Steve's War is most reflective in hindsight: With a dash of luck, TEst is given a unique opportunity to roll an alliance they expressed interest in attacking for a while (Alpha) in almost a 3 to 1 with the backing of the Syndisphere and later almost doubles its membership from the Spartan merge.
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