The Iron Dome is a simple national project that gives your nation a flat 50% chance at blocking missiles fired at it. This coin flip of randomness can be depressingly infuriating when your Iron Dome fails to block 7 missiles in a row, or sadistically satisfying when you manage to land 8 out of 9 of your missiles. I witnessed both of these situations during the most recent global war, and neither of them feel like a fulfilling experience to me.
Statistically, the Iron Dome can be reworded as "negate 50% of incoming missile damage." It's quite boring when you think about it, devoting an entire national project for the sole purpose of blocking half of the damage incoming on your nation during a war. True randomness has never seemed like a fun game mechanic to me. Yes, games require an element of randomness in them in order to be dynamic and fun. Having the opportunity to succeed despite all odds or face bitter defeat when victory was in your grasp is nearly essential to compelling game-play, but having a coin toss determine one of the most damaging aspects of a war feels like you've been cheated of a potentially compelling aspect of war.
I believe that with a small change in game mechanics, the Iron Dome can go from a boring buy-and-forget project to a fundamental aspect of war in Politics and War. In order to make this change, we merely need to include the idea of fluctuating success odds. I believe that by increasing the rate of success of the Iron Dome as land in a city decreases, a better experience will be had by both sides of the conflict.
Randomness can provide more compelling and challenging gameplay. Adams & Dormans in Game Mechanics: Advanced Game Theory explain this by saying, "There are two situations in which adding randomness is a useful design strategy:...to force players to improvise, and...help counter dominant strategies."
Currently, the dominant strategy with a missile is to always aim for the city with the highest infrastructure level. This will deal the most monetary damage in the long-run, and therefore is the only thing that realistically needs to be taken into account when firing missiles. This has created a war mechanic in which every player in the game does the same thing over and over, which is needlessly repetitive.
As an example proposal, let's say that the Iron Dome now linearly scales in its effectiveness with land size, with 500 land yielding a 70% chance of blocking a missile (lower land = less area to block = higher theoretical chance of success), and something on the upper end, like 5,000 land yielding a 30% chance of blocking a missile. These land values are the caps on each end, where lowering land below 500 and raising land above 5,000 will not further change blocking odds. This adds an entirely new dynamic to game-play, forcing improvisation and changing every player's strategy.
Instead of mindlessly firing a missile at a 2,500 infrastructure city because it's the highest your opponent has, maybe now their 2,000 infrastructure city has far more land, yielding a higher chance of success. While it might not do more monetary damage, the higher success chance may cause a player to target the 2,000 city in the interest of a guaranteed hit, instead of the riskier 2,500 infrastructure city.
I don't claim that these values are rock solid numbers that I would be comfortable changing the game to, but by making the fundamental mechanic change to what I have outlined, I believe that game-play would greatly benefit and missiles in war would be a far more engaging experience. Instead of the mindless "click the largest number" strategy, players would have to make a personal calculation on risk versus reward, and potentially even build their nations accordingly.
While I haven't addressed the Vital Defence System, I hope that it's clear that I would also argue for a similar change to be made for it as well. Let me know what you think and if there are downsides to this that you think throw a wrench in the entire idea, or some other suggestions for how to fix the Iron Dome.