You doubted the power of the Taco

[Rozalia]

I wasn't saying only white people will vote for him, but his support outside right-wing conservative circles is very thin.

 

The fact that Dems are split isn't really that important, as they'll still vote for the Dem candidate no matter who it is.

 

So 44% (In that state yes, but they'll be sizable numbers across the nation) of Sanders supporters who'd vote Trump are right wing conservatives? The 55% Hispanics in the OP are right wing conservatives? The millions of people Trump has energised, many of which who have never voted before are right wing conservatives? 

 

??? So Republican splits which are on the same level of Democrat matters because they're principled or something, not sure what you're getting at. Democrat voters though are sheep who'll vote Clinton no matter what? That poll with 44% who voted Sanders saying they'll go Trump says otherwise. 

 

As I said, try and keep up. 6 months ago you'd still be wrong but at least I could see how you might think that. Saying such things now when Trump has shown such nonsense as wrong constantly is a joke.

[Doktor Avalanche]

 ...while Clinton is a political giant who's been in politics her entire adult life, and probably has connections to everybody in Washington.

You post this like it is a good thing!

[Andrezj Kolarov]

You post this like it is a good thing!

But I don't, I'm just posting facts.

[Rozalia]

But I don't, I'm just posting facts.

 

Really now?

 

You do realize right that he stands no chance against her? Trump's a political novice while Clinton is a political giant who's been in politics her entire adult life, and probably has connections to everybody in Washington.

 

Nasty guy. Very dishonest. Sad!

[Memph]

Well WV is a very working class state, and the working class is much more dominated by working class whites than other states, so I'm not sure how meaningful it is that Trump has appeal among Bernie supporters there.

 

I'd expect everywhere where Romney had a strong win, Trump will win. Many of the southern states + Texas have more minorities than swing states of blue states, yet they're still consistently red states.

 

This is probably fairly accurate. Some might say it's overestimating democrat support, but I'd say it's relatively accurate in terms of where Trump would have the most support.

http://images.politico.com/global/2015/05/01/sabatographic503.jpg

 

Personally I would expect Trump to win OH, IA and have a decent chance in WI and CO. FL is complicated to understand, it's a state with all sorts of people, but if he can win there it's probably GG.

 

If he can't win in Florida, it'll be tricky.

 

IMO the key swing states are going to be:

 

Colorado

Nevada

Pennsylvania

Wisconsin

Virginia

Florida

Michigan

New Hampshire

 

Colorado - 80% of the population lives in the cities at the foot of the Rockies, Denver, Boulder, Colorado Springs, Fort Collins etc. Some of those have an important military presence, others are more white collar type cities. An increasingly significant Latino population but still predominantly white.

 

Nevada - much of the population lives in Las Vegas/its suburbs. The rest of the state (smaller cities/rural areas) will probably go for Trump. Vegas has a relatively significant Latino population, though not majority Latino, lots of service sector/tourism jobs and little manufacturing. Also a fair bit of retirees. Hard hit by the recession.

 

Pennsylvania - big state, quite varied. Significant manufacturing base remains especially in smaller cities, but smaller than it used to be. Philadelphia has a fair bit of blacks and Latinos but otherwise a fairly high white population. The big cities have a fairly significant white collar/college educated population, major universities, etc.

 

Wisconsin - similar to Pennsylvania, but replace Philadelphia with Milwaukee, and a bit smaller.

 

Michigan - similar to Wisconsin but fewer Latinos and more blacks and manufacturing is more geared towards auto-industry vs more diverse manufacturing in PA/WI.

 

Virginia - Pretty diverse... many sleepy small towns and rural areas. Relatively high black population, some Latinos in the DC suburbs. I expect DC suburbs to support Clinton and those are close to 30% of the state. I could be wrong about that... I can see DC suburbs supporting other Republican candidates but less sure of Trump. Other major cities are Richmond and "Hampton Roads" which includes Virginia Beach and a huge naval base.

 

Florida - big diverse state. Big tourism industry, lots of retirees, little manufacturing, similar to Nevada in that sense. Compared to Nevada, fewer Mexicans and more Cubans, which I suspect are more likely to lean conservative, and a bit more blacks. Also has a lot of suburban development and got hard hit by the housing crash. Northern part of the state probably has more in common with Georgia than the Florida beach towns though.

 

New Hampshire - small state so doesn't count that much, but could make a difference in a close election. Generally more conservative than the rest of New England, Motto of "Live Free or Die" and has no sales or income tax. Fairly educated population, mostly white, a few small cities near Boston, lots of historic small towns and rural areas.

 

Does Trump really stand a chance in NY? There's more to it than NYC and yes he's a big figure there but that doesn't mean everyone there likes him? Same question goes to NJ which is pretty closely tied to NYC - largely consisting of NYC and Philly suburbs. It's been 3 decades since a Republican won there.

 

I know OH and IA are considered swing states, but if Trump can't win there I don't see him winning the Presidency, he's going to have to get those, as well as some tougher states to win. But personally I'd expect him to win both.

[Rozalia]

Well they do say you need to win 2 out 3 of those states to win so 2 is good enough (though I'm sure he'll get all 3). New York will be tough but if any Republican "can put it in play" it's him. Something tells me that if he can beat the Democrat's dominance there then we'll be looking at a Reagan like annihilation. The Republican's movement is his campaign and people are invigorated, the Democrats movement is Sanders and they've done their best to try and kill it. If as I said even only 40% of Sanders supporters go to Trump, heck lets even just say 30% then it's over because Clinton won't even be getting half of the remaining % (stay at home gets that).

 

Clinton's only bulwarks are women and Blacks. Women are negated by him having overwhelming male support but I don't honestly expect Clinton to hold on to that support, at least not by much. With Blacks she has like 87% (as you'd expect) or something ridiculous so I would expect her to hold on to that, but Trump can possibly even eat away at that. He hasn't really started on Blacks and ultimately for all this talk of racism and him "hating blacks" they've got nothing. His message of "kick the illegals who take your jobs, punish the rich to bring back jobs" should resonate greatly with Black people when he starts appealing to them in a significant enough degree. 

Edited May 17, 2016 by Rozalia

[Chapsie]

Why should we care the !@#$ 6 months before the election?

 

Because it's America. They have thier campaigns running for years.

 

In Canada it was literally a month and a half and it bore fruit.

[Peacity Peace]

That isn't real mexican food, that's shit and I am culturally offended by it. Next you're gonna tell me that Taco Bell is also real Mexican food?

 

 

If a stick can cut through a bear, it's a sword.

[Peacity Peace]

 

Nasty guy. Very dishonest. Sad!

 

 

You legit sound like a Donald trump who isn't a billionaire.