Dubayoo
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Posts posted by Dubayoo
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On 2/26/2019 at 12:59 AM, Azaghul said:
It would take an extremely severe shortage of resources and/or cash for that to prevent people from posting offers to get better prices. Or to stop people from making money by flipping resources: posting both buy and sell offers and profiting off the margin. It's rare to see offers posted that are worth over $100 million. It only takes a few hundred million in cash and in resources to have the capacity to be a major market player. It would take a medium or large nation only a few weeks to stockpile enough to do it.
The limiting factor is the amount of time in real life it takes to do it vs the benefits.1) That considers only immediate short-term flipping here which ignores how market moves happen from large buyers and sellers transacting the market all at once. It also ignores larger posts beyond the margin itself which aim to profit over the long-term such as a week or two instead of right away.
2) That ignores where benefit itself comes from which is demand for product. When product is demanded more, prices rise. When prices rise, cash becomes more precious which means people aren't as willing to use it to flip. Instead, they use it to build cities, infrastructure, and improvements or lend to smaller players to do the same for a greater rate of return.
3) That ignores how quickly market offers get replaced when major players try to arbitrage it by clearing all offers and placing new ones. Just because players aren't posting right now doesn't mean they aren't paying attention. If anything, arbitragers often get screwed because of the abundance of players who have supply and remember where prices were before.
15 hours ago, Radoje said:The prices are perfect rn.
They're high enough where doing double manufactured resources is more cost effective for mid tier nations than going for high infra, meaning there's more being put on the market than pre-war, that's why they're low and why they'll stay low. At the same time, they're low enough where Commerce is viable at high city count, with high infra and an ITC.
If you want to game the market you easily can, borrow a bunch of money to buy out the market and than post as high as you want.
Also, since when have we started complaining about low rss prices? You can buy up your warchest twice as fast now, meaning you can go start a war in 2 months if you want.
Whats the problem? lolLow resource prices kill newcomers who are entering the game since they can't sell effectively. It consolidates power among the status quo which stagnates activity. If anything, this just means supply increases higher and higher for no good reason.
I also strong disagree with manufacturing's value since pollution is devastating from hospital and recycling center limits. You're better off going all out commerce with one manufacturing and one natural resource line.
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22 hours ago, Azaghul said:
Yup, the margin between the highest buy and lowest sell offer doesn't really have anything to do with supply and demand, but how active the participants in the market are and how willing people are to spend more effort IRL to get better prices.
Not quite. When margin goes down, product value increases and cash value decreases. Literally, you can't use cash as much to flip product.
This usually means the price of product should go up since more cash is chasing fewer goods...
...but in our market, prices are going down. That suggests a massive amount of overproduction and savings which isn't being used.
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On 2/24/2019 at 5:33 PM, Frawley said:
I think you missed my point, the number of people participating in what is called 'market making', the practice or having both buy and sell offers for the same commodity, has increased a lot. The actual volume of goods is not material to my point. It doesn't cost me goods to buy 500 steel at 1950 and then to sell it at 2000 later that day. More people trying to flip goods at the same time leads to margin compression.
The point was if more people are flipping goods, then more people have goods to spare to flip.
The amount of goods hasn't decreased tremendously, so it's not like we're talking about equality in the marketplace here. It's just more people have reached the critical level of saved resources to compete in flipping.
Those savings could be used instead of flipped.
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4 hours ago, The Mad Titan said:
This would only delay wars more though? If whales can get out of war by giving 1% of their income to some mid tier nation to fight a war they'll take that deal.
This doesn’t even work at a rl level since big players use proxy wars to avoid conflict themseves.
Really not sure how you're coming to that conclusion.
In real life, escalation settles due to internal concerns. You have democratic peace, war exhaustion, and generational change.
Those problems don't exist in FA in PnW. Whales should be racing to recruit competent people to join their alliances before crushing the opposition.
11 minutes ago, Auctor said:Proxy wars only really work in an environment where there are two equally matched sides that fear the consequences of an open confrontation with each other. The technical term for that scenario is "boring".
There's always multiple sides at stake.
It's like after WW2, the Allies split between East versus West.
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3 minutes ago, Akuryo said:
You realize Ronny is like 33 cities right. We're literally incapable of following his lead. I used probably around 70-80k gas/Muni each, another 60-70 of steel and like 30 of alum.
Which I think is pretty alright for being 19 cities and only there for the first month where actual fighting occurred.
What I realize is there are other ways to spend resources aside from directly fighting. You can assign bankrolls to people in appropriate score ranges so they can deal the damage that needs to be done.
This is why I said long ago that there needs to be more proxy wars in the game. Instead of major alliances fighting directly, they should sponsor mid-tier alliances to fight for them. The goal should be influence among mid-tier alliances in order to find the most proficient players and promote them to upper-tier alliances.
Eventually, enough players will be promoted, and a clash of the titans can happen.
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12 hours ago, Frawley said:
Margin contraction is the natural result of more people competing to make the same markets. If you look at who is in the market presently, there are substantially more players interacting with it on a daily basis.
In RL we call it a healthy market.
That's exactly the problem.
If more people are competing, that means less people are using the resources they have.
We have to remember that PnW isn't real life. It's a game of conflict. The conditions that apply for a real life healthy market are the opposite of what we want here.
It's not like we're playing Sim City or Civilization here. PnW gives no value to a thriving civilian economy during peacetime.
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Not sure I ever complained about prices being too high.
If anything, high prices are good to help newcomers sell their products to get off the ground.
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1 hour ago, Sweeeeet Ronny D said:
I spent somewhere around 200k gas and munitions each last war, was that not enough for you?
That's plenty. It's just a shame more people didn't follow your lead.
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23 minutes ago, Buorhann said:
In the past, the market corrected itself because the odds were usually on par, either by effort or numbers.
This war was pretty lopsided and overwhelmingly in favor of one side. So there wasn’t much incentive to buy/spend.
That's pretty much what I'm saying, yea.
The preceding war left a lot of resources on the table to spend since there wasn't much incentive to spend them.
There should be some follow-up conflict to take advantage of the opportunity at hand.
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26 minutes ago, Auctor said:
Building perfectly balanced wars with equal resource destruction and equal determination to continue the fight until all resources are burned is like that game we all used to play where we'd hang onto the wheelbarrow handles and hop around on just the tire.
Not really sure what you're saying there.
What I'm saying is TKR should have been treated like an old dynasty in China where after it collapsed, there would be factions vying for control to replace it. Everyone doesn't know each other's savings, and no, the factions aren't perfectly balanced, but there's still some rivalry at stake.
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7 minutes ago, Auctor said:
A longer war would not have addressed this, it was already past the diminishing returns point.
To be fair, I kind of agree since TKR's side didn't have much left to destroy.
The point was TKR versus the world wasn't the best way to establish a long enough war worth fighting.
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Every category of resource on the market has incredibly slim margins which suggests alliances have massive stockpiles banked up that aren't used. Combined with the new war mechanics that don't hurt infrastructure as much from getting beiged, there seems to be a lot more saving than what's necessary.
I remember before I came out of VM that margins were in the 100s. Now, they're rarely even 100.
Also, prices are incredibly low for manufactured goods. Typically, people are selling raws at low prices to accumulate cash. If manufactured goods are sold low for cash, that suggests warchests weren't spent enough since so much is left over to sell.
The exception atm seems to be lead, but then you look at the munitions market and it's just wtf?
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Perhaps, but it's not very realistic.
If people have the infrastructure to support expansion, they should be able to use it.
It makes sense for natural resource extraction since there's only so many natural resources in a location. It also makes sense for military buildings due to the limits of command and control...
...but civil services are a normal part of urban sprawl and urban planning.
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If you go commerce/manufacturing, you can't build enough hospitals and recycling centers to contain pollution and disease.
The existing cap seems rather arbitrary.
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Shouldn't you be paying people for their ideas instead of them paying you?
Seems backwards.
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19 hours ago, TheShadow said:
with the new war mechanics, you lose 4% infra when you are beiged.
And 4% infra off a 1K city is 40 infra a city
Compared to the earlier 10%, the beige damage is reduced by 60%
What does that mean?
Earlier, a triple beige meant you lose 27.1% infra off each city
Now, you lose 11.53% infra per city
Moreover, the loots have been nerfed as well
You loot 27.1% of cash and rss in a triple beige
Compare this with 57.82% of cash and 27.1% rss of earlier
Thus, blitz for loot isnt really worth it
Plus, with addition of war modifiers, you cannot loot with attrition wars
And you cant damage with raid wars
You can choose only one option-Destroy or Loot now.
Fair enough. Good point. Thanks for the update.
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13 hours ago, Sir Scarfalot said:
More like if you spied a target that has an unforgivably tiny warchest and you want to lock him out of munitions/gas/money.
Even then, get an ally or two to cover the ground/air, on the off chance that it's a trap and you get immediately countered by someone with a hecklot of ships and the guy suddenly gets resupplied. Have a plan.
And while for the most part in proper blitzing alliance war against competent opponents you 100% need to nullify their air and tanks ASAP, @Noctis Anarch Caelum isn't actually wrong; it's just extremely optimistic and rather self-centered. Blockading someone that has a huge warchest has a good chance of loot... but it has a better (as in ~99.9%) chance of giving them options with which to destroy more of your military, which means you can't use as much military yourself against your other targets. That means more pressure against you and your alliance mates, which is not a good. Be a team player and go for the suppression; loot is definitely secondary to that.
Not sure I agree since nations can only rebuild their forces so fast. Even with a poor WC, they couldn't spend it as quickly as they'd want to.
Loot is secondary though. You only go for it if they have a ton.
11 hours ago, TheShadow said:Dude....you dont beige people in an alliance war.
Especially if you are a noob.
The topic's about a blitz, not a prolonged campaign.
There are different ways to engage. We're talking about the rapid defeat of the enemy forces, and yes, you beige to destroy infra.
Lower infra means lower population means lower force caps which is especially important for airplanes.
You can keep one attacker on a target to prevent rebuilding, but you want to destroy that infra ASAP.
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Wait...
...you're protected by Polaris?
Who thought that was a good idea?
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When you're a pirate, it makes sense to naval attack since you're farming inactives...
...but in a proper blitz, your goal is to defeat the enemy as fast as possible while they're active. You can't get away with naval strikes since they'll airstrike your fleet and rebuild their own. "My ship is ready" doesn't work against that.
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25 minutes ago, MoonShadow said:
pretty sure i said it depends on the target and the numbers, the fact is it is not as simple as GC/AS always come first, you just explained one reason why they wouldn't ?, another reason would be they are low on food, steel, Alu, Uranium, or cash, all of which means they will lose if they are blockaded. My point was not to say you have to blockade first it was to simply point out you do not always have to do GC/AS first.
Yes, you said it depends.
I said there's only one exception. Saying it depends suggests there's a much wider range of opportunities.
All spectrums of gray are not equal. -
8 hours ago, MoonShadow said:
I would disagree, if said target has no ships then you should blockade first. it is not as black and white to say do this and do that it has to depend on the target and the numbers.What?
GC/AS always comes first since planes can hit everything, but everything can't hit planes.
The only exception is if you spied a target with a huge warchest and want to loot it. -
18 hours ago, Mad Max said:
Arrgh is like that local garbage company that "now offers recycling" but they just mix it in with the trash when they get back to their facility. Arrgh was once a good place now its just mehhhh. Switch it up - do something everyone else is afraid to do.
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4chan has infiltrated KT.
Time for a crusade, no? -
27 minutes ago, ?ϟħ̧i̧₣ɫ̵γ͘ ̶™? said:
BK is a winner and has the winner attitude
You don’t need to tone it down if you’re shitting on the loser. The BK cockiness has been there since day 1. Y’all just mad because BK is on a different front now and winning.
I'm mad because BK had this baseball king who's actually awful at the game: https://politicsandwar.com/nation/id=32018
Just look at all the effort he makes playing baseball, but then loses so many more wars and gets literally ZIed despite launching over 100 nukes and barely destroying more infrastructure than he's had destroyed.
If it wasn't for him, I wouldn't have gotten off the ground, but as much as he helped, he took advantage a lot more...
...and when I tried to make things more fair and efficient, he just said it's too difficult.
I tried applying to BK after, but he was IA at the time.
Increase Hospital/Recycling Cap
in Game Suggestions
Posted
They already do that from levying taxes on their alliances and using alliance banks on the market.
Also, you don't have to be a whale to do this. Whales usually have 3000-3500+ infra, but having between 2000-2500 infra is good enough.