whiskerz Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 My nukes in a recent war went 0/2 against an opponent with a VDS. How ? Why ? It may need some fine tuning behind the scenes. This should be almost impossible with 2 for 2 being much more likely than 0 for 2 Quote Join Grumpy and become a member of the best alliance in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob Knox Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 You may have just gotten unlucky. It's not a super super low probability. 0/2 hitting is 4%, 1/2 hitting is 32%, 2/2 hitting is 64%. Quote Federation of Knox Enlightened of Chaos, Event Horizon QA Team and API Team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiskerz Posted October 9, 2022 Author Share Posted October 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, Jacob Knox said: You may have just gotten unlucky. It's not a super super low probability. 0/2 hitting is 4%, 1/2 hitting is 32%, 2/2 hitting is 64%. This is my point exactly. The hit ratio in a perfect world is 80% so even 1/2 is lower than the average which should be closer to 1 stopped out of 4, Which would be 75% success. There is not really luck it is a arrhythmical chance. clearly it needs some behind the scenes massaging to bring it in line with the stated results of 20% stopped Quote Join Grumpy and become a member of the best alliance in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob Knox Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, whiskerz said: This is my point exactly. The hit ratio in a perfect world is 80% so even 1/2 is lower than the average which should be closer to 1 stopped out of 4, Which would be 75% success. There is not really luck it is a arrhythmical chance. clearly it needs some behind the scenes massaging to bring it in line with the stated results of 20% stopped I don't think you understand how statistics works. It's not guaranteeing that 20% of nukes will be stopped and 80% will hit. It says that given an attempted nuclear strike, the project has a 20% chance of blocking it and an 80% chance of not blocking it. The probabilities of any two nukes being blocked are completely independent. Whether or not Nuke 1 hits has literally 0 impact on the probability of whether or not Nuke 2 hits. Quote Federation of Knox Enlightened of Chaos, Event Horizon QA Team and API Team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiskerz Posted October 9, 2022 Author Share Posted October 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jacob Knox said: I don't think you understand how statistics works. It's not guaranteeing that 20% of nukes will be stopped and 80% will hit. It says that given an attempted nuclear strike, the project has a 20% chance of blocking it and an 80% chance of not blocking it. The probabilities of any two nukes being blocked are completely independent. Whether or not Nuke 1 hits has literally 0 impact on the probability of whether or not Nuke 2 hits. I understand that. I would think over time the number comes into focus and the number of nuke hits should be along the lines of an 80% hit rate. If not then something seems like it is not as advertised Quote Join Grumpy and become a member of the best alliance in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ripper Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 7 minutes ago, whiskerz said: I understand that. I would think over time the number comes into focus and the number of nuke hits should be along the lines of an 80% hit rate. If not then something seems like it is not as advertised Read the "law of large numbers" and some things may become clearer. The statistics are working just fine. If you get nukes 1k times and don't see that 20%, then sure, report it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dDARS Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 "Oh no, I got unlucky! This game must be broken!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mohammad Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 RNG sucks when it goes against u Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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