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Incoming Crisis


S. Wolfe
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So I don’t post on the forums too often, ever actually, but this is something worth posting about. That is the resource crisis that we’re facing now which is nothing compared to what’s to come.

So just a bit about myself, I’m a former banker and current bulk resource flipper. If you know me you know me, if you haven’t heard of me well... you live under a rock (XD).

Anyways, to put it straight to you all, Orbis has 60-75 days worth of lead left. That is at current rates of usage, but everyday the rates increase and our timeframe decreases. Just a few days ago calculations were at 136 days (maybe my math was off?)

There are people/alliances who know this already. They’ve currently been stockpiling munitions and as much of the remaining lead (~6.55m) as possible. The major alliances certainly have no doubt. Sry not stockpiling, hoarding. I’m surprised DtC is still selling lead. I guess he hasn’t gotten the memo.

Anyways, where does this leave the rest of us? Does this solve anything? It leaves the rest of us at a severe disadvantage bordering on suicide for whoever hasn’t stockpiled enough within the next few weeks to fight a global. And it does not solve the downward slope that’s been happening for a few months now.

The word needs to be spread. More lead must be produced and more munitions in order for us to avert this crisis. Some have told/warned me not to make this announcement in order to try and take advantage of this situation. But that wouldn’t be good for the game so here I am.

So two more things:

I’m hosting my show ‘'The Financialist’ in perhaps 30 minutes with a friend Billionaire Sui (you’re a noob if you don’t who he is) on this very subject and overall market trends. If you want all the graphs, charts, and details that I’m too lazy to add here, come to LUX and join us: https://discord.gg/k8eDhg

Lastly, ABANDON THE ALUMINUM PRODUCTION. Please! It is not the most important resource in the game. It is produced religiously by half of Orbis (including myself atm) at the detriment of of the rest of the resources. You think you need aluminum for war? XD. You can’t fight with anything without munitions my guys. And gals. You don’t stand a chance. Please do it for yourselves and the game.

Wolfe, Solomon

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TL;DR

  • There continues to be a resource shortage, which obviously isn't sustainable (around ~60-120 days worth of supply)
  • Many alliances continue using their aluminum focused builds they set when GW ended, which aren't very efficient given the current market prices
  • Dtc Justice is selling lead
  • Wolfe is hosting an interview with sui in 0 minutes: https://discord.gg/k8eDhg
  • For some reason S. Wolfe now has two forum accounts and posted this in yearly awards

I would disagree with the production of aluminum being the problem. IMO the war needs of an alliance, and thus aluminum is important enough to justify its continued production.

What I do see though is a lot of people going for inefficient 115% commerce builds, and wasting slots on trying to get zero disease & pollution.
Given the prices of raws, it's actually much better caring less about pollution, and trying to squeeze out the last few percent in commerce, and instead producing the most valuable raws.
I also see a lot of people trying to have their nation self sufficient, and having a variety of resource production in each city, instead of maxing out a specific one (and getting the obvious production bonus)
Also non whales wasting slots on nuke/missile project (among others) instead of resource projects means that alliances need to use more slots to meet their manufactured resource needs. 

Edited by Borg
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There's no doubt there's a bubble in the economy, right now we're not producing enough raws to replace those we're burning in refining. However, you will soon see the power of the free market, as demand for raws increases, so do the prices, as the prices increase, it will soon become more profitable to mine raws than buy them and refine them, people will subsequently start producing more raws. There's nothing to fear, the bubble will be removed through the power of the free market. 

 

Further, I urge noobs to not take the advice of having a couple extra resource slots at the expense of no hospitals or whatever, disease is a killer, if you ran your numbers, you'd realize what you're missing out on when you have 5-15% disease. 

 

 

 

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Chief Financial Officer of The Syndicate

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23 minutes ago, Justin076 said:

Further, I urge noobs to not take the advice of having a couple extra resource slots at the expense of no hospitals or whatever, disease is a killer, if you ran your numbers, you'd realize what you're missing out on when you have 5-15% disease. 

Does depend on what infrastructure you're at, how old your nation is, etc. Producing raws at the expense of population (commerce) is likely viable for a lot of new people.

Edited by Hime-sama
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Look up to the sky above~

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Ah yes. The ol' free market solves everything. I mean, sure, eventually it'll get so unsustainable that people will be forced to make changes, but taking action sooner will help the supply issue. I think most alliances would prefer that to happen before GW starts rather than after. 

Edited by Borg
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9 hours ago, S. Wolfe said:


Lastly, ABANDON THE ALUMINUM PRODUCTION. Please! I need my aluminium to become worth more. It is not the most important resource in the game.

meme.png.3f136a12b4f9e90c9eacb6b12aac1367.png?

Edited by Ex Machina
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1 hour ago, dtc justice said:

I mean, it's not just lead. All raws are heading for a crisis. I suggest people get rid of all supermarkets because they're pretty worthless these days.

Also @S. Wolfe why is this in yearly awards lol

He’s awarding us the power of knowledge of this crisis.

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image.gif.d80770bf646703bba00c14ad52088af9.gif

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Um now im intrigued, ive known there is a shortage but 60-75 days seems rash. Time to run numbers, i shal return 


Edit: So basing everything off a weeks average i got 106 days. However it does appear to increase a little under a percent daily. With that said 75 days does seem possible. 

 

On that note, its not just lead, oil, iron, coal are all decreasing (from a quick glance). Baux is on a down trend but it isnt a "flat" line per say. 

 

The fact is a lot of people have been predicting this so its expected. If we actually "run out" im sure we can expect a new econ change 

Edited by Azazel

0b3897cd640f95254329f7a2d45d8c77b1c120e.

 

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@PeeledTurnip Not to be rude but I told you so Havvy, Doran, & rest of high OD gov. Next time listen & communicate instead of leaving the low gov in the dust as well as pls stop doubting me. 

 

                            memed-iFirwof650x150.jpeg.9a92ea222b9010f9fae97a1864a6759e.jpeg     

 I personally voice my own thought processes based on own desires of informational curiosity as well love for discussion based on questions & statements I made rather just trusting info like a collective hivemind

Onlookers whom hop aboard the brainless bandwagon refusing inter-articulation based on assumed feelings, go give yo balls a tug ya tit fugger         

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33 minutes ago, Firwof Kromwell said:

@PeeledTurnip Not to be rude but I told you so Havvy, Doran, & rest of high OD gov. Next time listen & communicate instead of leaving the low gov in the dust as well as pls stop doubting me. 

Get a room. 

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15 minutes ago, Mr. Goober said:

Get a room. 

ok. me & u. MGM Grand for my bday. Top floor room that is 5 rooms down from elevator on left hand side

Edited by Firwof Kromwell
additions

 

                            memed-iFirwof650x150.jpeg.9a92ea222b9010f9fae97a1864a6759e.jpeg     

 I personally voice my own thought processes based on own desires of informational curiosity as well love for discussion based on questions & statements I made rather just trusting info like a collective hivemind

Onlookers whom hop aboard the brainless bandwagon refusing inter-articulation based on assumed feelings, go give yo balls a tug ya tit fugger         

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11 hours ago, Firwof Kromwell said:

@PeeledTurnip Not to be rude but I told you so Havvy, Doran, & rest of high OD gov. Next time listen & communicate instead of leaving the low gov in the dust as well as pls stop doubting me. 

Even if its not as profitable to sell aluminum, you wanted to make a small portion of every resource. This post just says to make lead so that there is a world supply, not do your terrible econ plan of making 1 of each rss. Also stop pinging me on forums I get it your salty about being a terrible recruitment officer go and bother someone else

Edited by PeeledTurnip
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"Havgle is a piece of sh*t" -probably everyone in Orbis

 

Havglerepmeme.gif

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A planned economy has never worked. So in this simple market simulation the principles of a free market do apply. If there is a shortage in raws and prices increase further, at some point people will switch to the production of raws until there will be a new equilibrium.

Simple as that, no need to interfere.

 

Edited by Tamasith
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9 hours ago, PeeledTurnip said:

Even if its not as profitable to sell aluminum, you wanted to make a small portion of every resource. This post just says to make lead so that there is a world supply, not do your terrible econ plan of making 1 of each rss. Also stop pinging me on forums I get it your salty about being a terrible recruitment officer go and bother someone else.

1.-- Finally admitting your wrong? Bout time!

2.-- I never said one person makes every resource. I said one person making specializes in money plus 1-3 other resources depending on how they were built & should be built.(Well that's what I was hoping you guys to understand.)

3.-- Reminder that me  & Linda where doing the majority of sending out messages, letting people in, & doing treaty work.

81771957_Screenshot2020-05-01at10_17_10AM.png.7080c7e4c7a7290c451416ebeb395fa4.png

& here is the some proof.

If i remember correctly when you go through the aa activity to that there is a streak of me & Linda from not long ago us doing treaty work & applicant acceptance.  As well it should you guys barely doing anything too. This is not salt... Well Im Firwof so there is always some salt. But I still speak truth that Only Linda, Viktor, & Frosty adhered to. The fact you guys were unwilling to help us & not show proof to the low gov on your guys ambitions proved your worth. That worth was not a good one either.  I'm quite lucky anyways to have friends like those three. You don't come across them often in alliances like BoC & OD.

 

 

                            memed-iFirwof650x150.jpeg.9a92ea222b9010f9fae97a1864a6759e.jpeg     

 I personally voice my own thought processes based on own desires of informational curiosity as well love for discussion based on questions & statements I made rather just trusting info like a collective hivemind

Onlookers whom hop aboard the brainless bandwagon refusing inter-articulation based on assumed feelings, go give yo balls a tug ya tit fugger         

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So, let me get this straight. You start out by insulting us because we don't know about some ex-banker from The Federation, you tell us that there's a massive crisis and to stop producing a resource that YOU produce. Then you start advertising your show, insulting us again. And you want us to listen to you and take you seriously?

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