Crowdsourced Keno

[Raphael]

Hello,

I'm conducting a public experiment on the true profitability on Keno. Recent very lucky wins of multiple billions have made me realize this could be a very profitable venture. So there are two steps I need from you guys, the crowd I'm sourcing from.

1. Tell me your lucky number. Just one number.

2. Invest your funds with me. You can send a trade to my nation or drop cash to me via alliance bank. Nation name: Vvardenfell

 

The top 10 donators will have their lucky numbers used for the Keno unless they overlap. I'll be doing $1m bets until the funds are gone. If money is net-made, all initial investments and an appropriate percentage of the profits will be returned.

Once some cash is sourced and numbers are picked, I'll make a discord event out of actually playing it. Hopefully next by next weekend.

[Cinomoo]

No.

[Horsecock]

BITCONNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEECT

[Changeup]

Someone was talking about Keno being more profitable than dice just a couple days ago in the PW discord.


Edit: 

Dice has an expected value of like 0.87 so you should lose like 13% with every bet on average for keno its only like 3.5%

Quoted from Dryad, by the way.

Edited October 27, 2019 by Changeup

[Do Not Fear Jaz]

This is the worst attempt at a ponzi scheme I have ever seen.

[Oh Tiniest Bird]

4 hours ago, Horsecock said:

BITCONNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEECT

Not an emptyquote.

[DivineCoffeeBinge]

1 hour ago, Do Not Fear Jazz said:

This is the worst attempt at a ponzi scheme I have ever seen.

"Please send me your money to gamble with I promise you'll get a share if I win, honest"

[Hassan]

Aren't you the guy who wanted to shut Keno down?

[Micchan]

More people won at keno recently because more people are playing because blockaded nations use their money on keno to avoid having them looted by the enemy

For every winner there are 1000 losers and I'm always one of them

[Guest Epi]

1

Edited February 17, 2021 by Epi

[Micchan]

3 minutes ago, Epi said:

If you play like 10,000 games with 1k bets, in theory i'll eventually strike true.

That's what I was thinking but after like 25k bets and 700M lost I ended my money

I want to become a whale just to make more money for keno

[Comrade Marx]

I'll gladly pay you Thursday for a burger today.

[Sphinx]

18 hours ago, Horsecock said:

BITCONNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEECT

Hey at least that guy had charisma for his scam to be such a success. The OP has about as much charisma as a wet paper bag.  

[Guest Elijah Mikaelson]

19 hours ago, Do Not Fear Jazz said:

This is the worst attempt at a ponzi scheme I have ever seen.

in truth its so bad i would not even call it a ponzi scheme 

[Star Butterfly]

So... You'll be playing until you run out of money, but you somehow expect to make money?  I dont think you get how this works.

[Guest San Fortunado]

6 hours ago, Sphinx said:

Hey at least that guy had charisma for his scam to be such a success. The OP has about as much charisma as a wet paper bag.  

Just fyi Sphinx that I am very honest and upfront. You should invest in my crowdsource keno and I'll promise to share 0% of the profits, if there are any.

[MinesomeMC]

looks like I am about to be 10 times poorer

[Lu Xun]

Keno is about 3.5% expected loss per game (but high variance means that you're more likely to lose the invested sum early unless you're playing a couple of hundred games and have the bankroll to survive 85% loss rates).

 

Dice is about 1.5% expected loss per game, so Dice is less a source of losses.

 

From an economics point of view, gambling games are about expected utility vs expected value; i.e, if randomly winning 50% of your initial bet is worth more to you than the fact that you'll lose around 3.5% of your bet per game on average, you decide to gamble.

 

Basically, with a large number of Keno or Dice games played, you can assuredly expect to lose money (unless the rumors are true and someone's broken the Keno PRNG).

[Woryand]

This post gave me enough of a laugh that I sent you $1000 (probably the most that you’ll be getting from anyone). Have fun with your noble venture?

[Raphael]

If Micchan can sell his avatar pic, I don't see why I can't crowdsource keno.

@Woryand your $1000 was instantly lost in an unrelated Keno accident.

[Sir Scarfalot]

On 10/27/2019 at 5:16 PM, Do Not Fear Jazz said:

This is the worst attempt at a ponzi scheme I have ever seen.

I've seen worse. ...And they were successful, I might add.

On 10/29/2019 at 5:43 PM, Vivec said:

If Micchan can sell his avatar pic, I don't see why I can't crowdsource keno.

The difference is that there's a direct value, no risk, and most importantly a verifiable transaction being made with Micchan's deal. (And a very underpriced value at that, though why anyone would want to outbid the current avatar I cannot speculate.)

[Raphael]

20 hours ago, Sir Scarfalot said:

I've seen worse. ...And they were successful, I might add.

The difference is that there's a direct value, no risk, and most importantly a verifiable transaction being made with Micchan's deal. (And a very underpriced value at that, though why anyone would want to outbid the current avatar I cannot speculate.)

I beg to differ, sir. The avatar auction holds no potential for return on investment, is 100% risk (read: loss), and no more verifiable than my transactions.

[Sir Scarfalot]

7 hours ago, Vivec said:

I beg to differ, sir. The avatar auction holds no potential for return on investment, is 100% risk (read: loss), and no more verifiable than my transactions.

That's not actually the case; the value is in the right to choose Micchan's avatar. That there's no monetary return on investment is irrelevant; the point is that Micchan has something, is selling it, and people are buying it. That gives it value, and the verifiability is in Micchan complying with the avatar change (or not, as the case may be). The risk is in Micchan taking the money and not changing the avatar, but again, it's verifiable; Micchan can't possibly get away with it without people noticing and promptly ceasing to send money.

What you've got here is different in that there's no observable difference between your honesty and someone else trying to be a sneaky snek that just reports "oops it got lost" without winning, or even necessarily playing keno at all. As for the value, that's purely defined by what your customers are willing to pay. Micchan's avatar has value for the simple reason that people are willing to pay for it. What exactly do we get from your service that we can't just kind of do ourselves? What's the value?

[Raphael]

5 hours ago, Sir Scarfalot said:

That's not actually the case; the value is in the right to choose Micchan's avatar. That there's no monetary return on investment is irrelevant; the point is that Micchan has something, is selling it, and people are buying it. That gives it value, and the verifiability is in Micchan complying with the avatar change (or not, as the case may be). The risk is in Micchan taking the money and not changing the avatar, but again, it's verifiable; Micchan can't possibly get away with it without people noticing and promptly ceasing to send money.

What you've got here is different in that there's no observable difference between your honesty and someone else trying to be a sneaky snek that just reports "oops it got lost" without winning, or even necessarily playing keno at all. As for the value, that's purely defined by what your customers are willing to pay. Micchan's avatar has value for the simple reason that people are willing to pay for it. What exactly do we get from your service that we can't just kind of do ourselves? What's the value?

The plan is to live-stream said keno so people can see the results. I think I notated something to the effect of making an event out of it in the OP.

Something having value doesn't necessarily equate to people's willingness to pay for it. And yes, something being a 100% loss counts as 100% risk. You are guaranteed to lose money on micchans avatar, not so with Crowdsourced Keno.

Edited November 2, 2019 by Vivec

[Sir Scarfalot]

11 hours ago, Bartholomew Roberts said:

The plan is to live-stream said keno so people can see the results. I think I notated something to the effect of making an event out of it in the OP.

Ok, that's a fair response to the last question, and it does indeed address verifiability concerns. Sorry if I misunderstood the plan, that's a perfectly trustworthy business model then.

To respond to your second points, though:

11 hours ago, Bartholomew Roberts said:

Something having value doesn't necessarily equate to people's willingness to pay for it.

That's true, but people's willingness to pay for something does define a commercial value. Micchan's avatar space is being sold, people are paying for it, therefore it empirically has at least that much value. It's like gold; that stuff has absolutely no more value than, say, lead, silver, or yellow paint outside of precision electronics, but people have considered it super valuable for all of human history for the simple reason that people were willing to trade for it.

11 hours ago, Bartholomew Roberts said:

And yes, something being a 100% loss counts as 100% risk. You are guaranteed to lose money on micchans avatar, not so with Crowdsourced Keno.

No, the buyer is guaranteed to spend money on Micchan's avatar, but is equally guaranteed to gain the value of the right to advertise their chosen image on Micchan's avatar. That there's money spent without money later gained does not necessarily mean it's a loss, rather it means that it wasn't an investment made with the expectation of future gains. I wouldn't say buying a hamburger is a "loss" so much as a "cost", where the benefit is the hamburger. The hamburger is worth what you choose to pay for it, give or take unexpected factors like it being cold/burned/extra-delicious, right? Even though you're not going to be able to plant hamburgers into hamburger plants to start a hamburger farm, the transaction is not a net negative at all. Whereas in a gamble like you're proposing, the benefit is at least partly uncertain. While there's still the benefit of the thrill and possibly social fun, there's still the risk whereas Micchan's avatar has no risk (outside of naked theft of course*).

*Hodor dick pic notwithstanding

Edited November 2, 2019 by Sir Scarfalot
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