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How Cheap Will Prices Have to Get Before Alliances Say Peace is Ridiculous?


Dubayoo
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How Cheap Will Prices Have to Get Before Alliances Say Peace is Ridiculous?  

75 members have voted

  1. 1. How Cheap Will Manufactured Prices Have to Get Before Alliances Say Peace is Ridiculous?

    • Avg < $1500
      10
    • Avg < $1250
      5
    • Avg < $1000
      15
    • Avg < $750
      8
    • Avg < $500
      1
    • Avg < $250
      25


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The market is not as volitile as you think:

 

raw materlas index has onlty fallen by $400

 

meanwhile manufactured goods have falen over $2000

 

more nations will swithc to a commerce build to buy a warchest, and thus resources willd ry up, sooner or later. Then proces will hike, and whales will flood markets.

 

 

it is a cycle

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On 3/8/2019 at 5:45 AM, Mohammad.badawy4 said:

it is a cycle

image.thumb.png.5e9139c41e5eb4ce6467235ee98b8d08.png

You're right, it is a cycle, but only in the short term. This is old data, pre-Great Deflation update, but from collecting new data over the past few months it looks more or less like the trend is the same. The peaks are wars, NPOFT, SW, PP, TTT. The prices rise in the lead up to the war, fall during, hit the bottom following rebuild, then rise again slowly before peaking when a new war seems likely. That's the short term cycle. However the much larger overal trend is still that prices fall in the long term, which is because of the same issue most MMOs have - everyone is constantly printing money and goods at an exponentially increasing rate. There is no perfect way around this, it will always happen so long as cash and resources are produced faster than they are consumed, as in being completely eliminated from the economy through cities, military, keno and baseball. But a good step that could be taken in circumventing the issue is to create more resource and cash sinks. Could be done by increasing city costs like I suggested earlier, or increasing the resource cost of military. Steel is probably one of the safest resources to produce because a look at the Knightfall war stats will show that far more money was spent on tanks than on anything else, so as things are now it is the most in-demand resource come wartime. Sketchy's suggestion of making resources 'decay' over time is another good solution.

It's quite poor form that Sheepy hasn't introduced any update to resolve this issue. Also when I say that alliances should consider closing their economies so that they only trade with other alliance members I'm actually serious. I've recently started to sell only to other Rose members at prices that have nothing to do with the market price. Whatever the prices are on the global market becomes irrelevant. You can set prices in such a way that all the costs of producing the goods is accounted for and then adjust it based on how useful it is. It's a great way to run things, but you need to get your whole membership to agree to the idea.

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On 3/4/2019 at 12:32 PM, Theodosius said:

Well, it has been 12 months since the last one, methinks. I think it's that time of the year again.

  

Sheepy's economic band aid fix in 3..2... 

I still think read receipts are the worst update Sheepy has added.

Edited by WISD0MTREE

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/9/2019 at 6:44 AM, Vack said:

image.thumb.png.5e9139c41e5eb4ce6467235ee98b8d08.png

You're right, it is a cycle, but only in the short term. This is old data, pre-Great Deflation update, but from collecting new data over the past few months it looks more or less like the trend is the same. The peaks are wars, NPOFT, SW, PP, TTT. The prices rise in the lead up to the war, fall during, hit the bottom following rebuild, then rise again slowly before peaking when a new war seems likely. That's the short term cycle. However the much larger overal trend is still that prices fall in the long term, which is because of the same issue most MMOs have - everyone is constantly printing money and goods at an exponentially increasing rate. There is no perfect way around this, it will always happen so long as cash and resources are produced faster than they are consumed, as in being completely eliminated from the economy through cities, military, keno and baseball. But a good step that could be taken in circumventing the issue is to create more resource and cash sinks. Could be done by increasing city costs like I suggested earlier, or increasing the resource cost of military. Steel is probably one of the safest resources to produce because a look at the Knightfall war stats will show that far more money was spent on tanks than on anything else, so as things are now it is the most in-demand resource come wartime. Sketchy's suggestion of making resources 'decay' over time is another good solution.

It's quite poor form that Sheepy hasn't introduced any update to resolve this issue. Also when I say that alliances should consider closing their economies so that they only trade with other alliance members I'm actually serious. I've recently started to sell only to other Rose members at prices that have nothing to do with the market price. Whatever the prices are on the global market becomes irrelevant. You can set prices in such a way that all the costs of producing the goods is accounted for and then adjust it based on how useful it is. It's a great way to run things, but you need to get your whole membership to agree to the idea.

Huh. How does the chart look like post-Great Deflation, anyway?

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36 minutes ago, Quichwe10 said:

Huh. How does the chart look like post-Great Deflation, anyway?

I've only started tracking again since last November, so we'll see in a few wars time :P

I would be surprised if someone somewhere isn't sitting on the complete set of data from the last few years, just they haven't released it publicly

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22 hours ago, Vack said:

I've only started tracking again since last November, so we'll see in a few wars time :P

I would be surprised if someone somewhere isn't sitting on the complete set of data from the last few years, just they haven't released it publicly

Well that's a bit of a bummer. Well, we'll see what it is then, or when said person sitting on that data decides to release it.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/4/2019 at 2:33 PM, Dubayoo said:

Sheepy should intervene with some formula that makes stockpiles depreciate everyweek based on your percentile in the game to discourage saving and encourage spending. Your percentile could equal the percent of 2% that you lose everyweek. I say 2% so the median player loses 1% per week of saved resources.

We need to remember this is a game, not real life. Saving resources to afford a retired lifestyle of luxury doesn't apply here.

I don't think that would be a good idea.

Why is saving bad?

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Well that's economics. If there is no demand for a product and a lot of supply, the prices will get more and more competitive and drop. Since no one is burning steel or aluminum, there's massive stockpiles in the market for dirt cheap because no one needs them.

It's up to the players to do something about it in all reality.

We have seized the means of production. Though union, and self-governance, we have organized between all peoples of the land.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Chapsie said:

Well that's economics. If there is no demand for a product and a lot of supply, the prices will get more and more competitive and drop. Since no one is burning steel or aluminum, there's massive stockpiles in the market for dirt cheap because no one needs them.

It's up to the players to do something about it in all reality.

More like Sheepy broke the system. Knowing some of the stockpiles out there, 0 chance of you burning through them even by increasing the amount of wars we have.

[11:52 PM] Prefontaine: But Keegoz is actually bad. [11:52 PM] Prefontaine: He's my favorite bad leader though.

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On 3/9/2019 at 7:44 AM, Vack said:

image.thumb.png.5e9139c41e5eb4ce6467235ee98b8d08.png

You're right, it is a cycle, but only in the short term. This is old data, pre-Great Deflation update, but from collecting new data over the past few months it looks more or less like the trend is the same. The peaks are wars, NPOFT, SW, PP, TTT. The prices rise in the lead up to the war, fall during, hit the bottom following rebuild, then rise again slowly before peaking when a new war seems likely. That's the short term cycle. However the much larger overal trend is still that prices fall in the long term, which is because of the same issue most MMOs have - everyone is constantly printing money and goods at an exponentially increasing rate. There is no perfect way around this, it will always happen so long as cash and resources are produced faster than they are consumed, as in being completely eliminated from the economy through cities, military, keno and baseball. But a good step that could be taken in circumventing the issue is to create more resource and cash sinks. Could be done by increasing city costs like I suggested earlier, or increasing the resource cost of military. Steel is probably one of the safest resources to produce because a look at the Knightfall war stats will show that far more money was spent on tanks than on anything else, so as things are now it is the most in-demand resource come wartime. Sketchy's suggestion of making resources 'decay' over time is another good solution.

It's quite poor form that Sheepy hasn't introduced any update to resolve this issue. Also when I say that alliances should consider closing their economies so that they only trade with other alliance members I'm actually serious. I've recently started to sell only to other Rose members at prices that have nothing to do with the market price. Whatever the prices are on the global market becomes irrelevant. You can set prices in such a way that all the costs of producing the goods is accounted for and then adjust it based on how useful it is. It's a great way to run things, but you need to get your whole membership to agree to the idea.

The current market index looks like it's floating about $1000 above your last plotted point and in recent recollection this is the lowest I've seen it in awhile. It'll probably drop lower but just an interesting thing I noticed.

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I don't get why so many people keep complaining about low market prices. It's all a matter of supply and demand and most of the resource prices resonate with each other.

Small nations benefit from the currently large supply and the small demand. Large nations that specialize in manufactured resources can buy the required raws cheaply.

 

To which point might market prices eventually fall? The bottom boundary is the marginal cost of production which can probably be calculated within this simple economic system, taking into account interdependencies including pollution.

 

In theory, prices equal to the marginal costs imply the highest overall welfare. So instead of propagating some false ideal price or asking for additional mechanisms to prevent prices from decreasing, let the market to the work and let it provide the highest overall surplus.

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Just another fun estimation due to late-afternoon boredom:

In order to restore the market value of Food/Steel/Gas/Aluminum/Munitions to my subjective opinion of their "normal price", the collective community would need to drop almost $3 billion on all these resources.

Food back to 90's- 808m

Gas back to 2000's- 528m

Steel back to 2000's - 635m

Munitions back to 1100's - 124m

Aluminum back to 1700's - 648m

 

The majority of the cost for almost every resource to fluctuate back upwards towards a "norm" is actually due more to a handful of members posting large sell orders that appear to be locking-in prices.

For example: $431m of the $808m needed to boost food back up is from one persons single posting at 63 PPU.

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22 hours ago, Bartholomew Roberts said:

Just another fun estimation due to late-afternoon boredom:

In order to restore the market value of Food/Steel/Gas/Aluminum/Munitions to my subjective opinion of their "normal price", the collective community would need to drop almost $3 billion on all these resources.

Food back to 90's- 808m

Gas back to 2000's- 528m

Steel back to 2000's - 635m

Munitions back to 1100's - 124m

Aluminum back to 1700's - 648m

 

The majority of the cost for almost every resource to fluctuate back upwards towards a "norm" is actually due more to a handful of members posting large sell orders that appear to be locking-in prices.

For example: $431m of the $808m needed to boost food back up is from one persons single posting at 63 PPU.

It's worth noting that there's a wee bit of market manipulation going on here. Some nations have multiple huge offers posted, which may mean that they only have enough resources to supply one of those offers.

The only thing is that if that 3 billion was used to push the prices up we'd probably see an increase of nations putting their resources up for sale, pushing the prices back down. down.

Also, raws costing more vis a vi manufactured materials is good for small nations when you consider that usually its the smaller nations making the raws and bigger nations refining them.

Edited by MRBOOTY
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On 4/12/2019 at 3:37 PM, Bartholomew Roberts said:

Just another fun estimation due to late-afternoon boredom:

In order to restore the market value of Food/Steel/Gas/Aluminum/Munitions to my subjective opinion of their "normal price"

Just want to point that out before people take it too serious.  You folks are too use to the prices back a few years ago.

This is the norm.  More players = more product = cheaper prices.

When conflict becomes regular again, the market will see a spike back up just like what @Vack posted earlier.  There's a lot of stockpile out there that isn't being sold at all.

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I'm literally cringing right now, "normal price". There is no normal price on resources. Take oil and gas for instance, in real life, as much as people want to believe their is a "normal price" and manipulate things to try and achieve that "normal price", fact is there is no normal price. The price is what the price is and no matter what you do the market will decide. The second you try and manipulate the market by trying to buy up the offers and increase the price, everyone will flood the market with offers to try and sell for that price and guess what? The price will fall back or even further than before. This is basic economics folks. Accept the market for what it is. 

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Indeed there is no "normal price" since all prices are determined by supply and demand. Currently decreasing prices occur due to the large supply and prices may well increase again with the next war.

The only thing that can be considered problematic is that some of the offers for large amounts of resources or money are fake offers. These offers are not backed by money or stockpiles and might influence prices one way or another.

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This market remains interesting. Since the time of the last posting, someone bought Munitions up to the 1100's and Steel is almost back to 2000, yet the market index is lower than when I posted (~14k around the last post, ~13k now).

A volatile market is way more fun to watch.

 

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The economy of this game has been broken for years.  It was broken around the time of 20+ city builds, let alone 3000+ infra 30+ city nations.

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