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Did the Last War Last Long Enough?


Dubayoo
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Close wars cause resource warchest to be hit harder than one-sided ones. When one side has a clear advantage and the other side is in guerrilla warfare mode the usage of steel and aluminum drops. Production also lowers, but with the inability to destroy improvements and the ability for nations to have 1000 infra but the improvement slots of 2500 infra sort of makes the lower production barely a factor.

 

What a prolonged war does is not damage the losing sides resource warchest, but their financial one. It also prohibits their growth in most cases. The market jumps a lot post war because people are either selling to replenish cash for rebuilds, or buying to replenish war chests. 

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On 2/24/2019 at 10:59 AM, The Mad Titan said:

I mean he only spent that much cause he lost the war. There was pretty much zero resistance to the winning side meaning alliances were using 10-15% of their stockpiles. High prices benefit whales more so if anything this is better for new players this way. Additionally I know several large alliances don't even interact with the market at an alliance wide level which depresses prices. 

What? I spent about 75-80% of it the month you guys let me run train on your upper tier before you finally your shit together and took me down.

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On 2/24/2019 at 5:33 PM, Frawley said:

I think you missed my point, the number of people participating in what is called 'market making', the practice or having both buy and sell offers for the same commodity, has increased a lot. The actual volume of goods is not material to my point. It doesn't cost me goods to buy 500 steel at 1950 and then to sell it at 2000 later that day. More people trying to flip goods at the same time leads to margin compression. 

The point was if more people are flipping goods, then more people have goods to spare to flip.

The amount of goods hasn't decreased tremendously, so it's not like we're talking about equality in the marketplace here. It's just more people have reached the critical level of saved resources to compete in flipping.

Those savings could be used instead of flipped.

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22 hours ago, Azaghul said:

Yup, the margin between the highest buy and lowest sell offer doesn't really have anything to do with supply and demand, but how active the participants in the market are and how willing people are to spend more effort IRL to get better prices.

Not quite. When margin goes down, product value increases and cash value decreases. Literally, you can't use cash as much to flip product.

This usually means the price of product should go up since more cash is chasing fewer goods...

...but in our market, prices are going down. That suggests a massive amount of overproduction and savings which isn't being used.

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If someone has 100k of a resource, it’s unlikely all will sell before a bunch of people edge out the offer with better deals in smaller batches. So while a huge sum of money or resources does make it easier to play the market; much of it has to do with how much time people are spending edging out other offers posted & repeating.

Edited by Noctis Anarch Caelum
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2 hours ago, Dubayoo said:

Not quite. When margin goes down, product value increases and cash value decreases. Literally, you can't use cash as much to flip product.

This usually means the price of product should go up since more cash is chasing fewer goods...

...but in our market, prices are going down. That suggests a massive amount of overproduction and savings which isn't being used.

It would take an extremely severe shortage of resources and/or cash for that to prevent people from posting offers to get better prices.  Or to stop people from making money by flipping resources: posting both buy and sell offers and profiting off the margin.  It's rare to see offers posted that are worth over $100 million.  It only takes a few hundred million in cash and in resources to have the capacity to be a major market player.  It would take a medium or large nation only a few weeks to stockpile enough to do it.

The limiting factor is the amount of time in real life it takes to do it vs the benefits.

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On 2/23/2019 at 3:52 PM, Dubayoo said:

Every category of resource on the market has incredibly slim margins which suggests alliances have massive stockpiles banked up that aren't used. Combined with the new war mechanics that don't hurt infrastructure as much from getting beiged, there seems to be a lot more saving than what's necessary.

I remember before I came out of VM that margins were in the 100s. Now, they're rarely even 100.

Also, prices are incredibly low for manufactured goods. Typically, people are selling raws at low prices to accumulate cash. If manufactured goods are sold low for cash, that suggests warchests weren't spent enough since so much is left over to sell.

The exception atm seems to be lead, but then you look at the munitions market and it's just wtf?

The prices are perfect rn.

They're high enough where doing double manufactured resources is more cost effective for mid tier nations than going for high infra, meaning there's more being put on the market than pre-war, that's why they're low and why they'll stay low. At the same time, they're low enough where Commerce is viable at high city count, with high infra and an ITC.

If you want to game the market you easily can, borrow a bunch of money to buy out the market and than post as high as you want.

Also, since when have we started complaining about low rss prices? You can buy up your warchest twice as fast now, meaning you can go start a war in 2 months if you want.

Whats the problem? lol

Edited by Radoje
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On 2/26/2019 at 12:59 AM, Azaghul said:

It would take an extremely severe shortage of resources and/or cash for that to prevent people from posting offers to get better prices.  Or to stop people from making money by flipping resources: posting both buy and sell offers and profiting off the margin.  It's rare to see offers posted that are worth over $100 million.  It only takes a few hundred million in cash and in resources to have the capacity to be a major market player.  It would take a medium or large nation only a few weeks to stockpile enough to do it.

The limiting factor is the amount of time in real life it takes to do it vs the benefits.

1) That considers only immediate short-term flipping here which ignores how market moves happen from large buyers and sellers transacting the market all at once. It also ignores larger posts beyond the margin itself which aim to profit over the long-term such as a week or two instead of right away. 

2) That ignores where benefit itself comes from which is demand for product. When product is demanded more, prices rise. When prices rise, cash becomes more precious which means people aren't as willing to use it to flip. Instead, they use it to build cities, infrastructure, and improvements or lend to smaller players to do the same for a greater rate of return.

3) That ignores how quickly market offers get replaced when major players try to arbitrage it by clearing all offers and placing new ones. Just because players aren't posting right now doesn't mean they aren't paying attention. If anything, arbitragers often get screwed because of the abundance of players who have supply and remember where prices were before. 

15 hours ago, Radoje said:

The prices are perfect rn.

They're high enough where doing double manufactured resources is more cost effective for mid tier nations than going for high infra, meaning there's more being put on the market than pre-war, that's why they're low and why they'll stay low. At the same time, they're low enough where Commerce is viable at high city count, with high infra and an ITC.

If you want to game the market you easily can, borrow a bunch of money to buy out the market and than post as high as you want.

Also, since when have we started complaining about low rss prices? You can buy up your warchest twice as fast now, meaning you can go start a war in 2 months if you want.

Whats the problem? lol

Low resource prices kill newcomers who are entering the game since they can't sell effectively. It consolidates power among the status quo which stagnates activity. If anything, this just means supply increases higher and higher for no good reason.

I also strong disagree with manufacturing's value since pollution is devastating from hospital and recycling center limits. You're better off going all out commerce with one manufacturing and one natural resource line.

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2 hours ago, Dubayoo said:

1) That considers only immediate short-term flipping here which ignores how market moves happen from large buyers and sellers transacting the market all at once. It also ignores larger posts beyond the margin itself which aim to profit over the long-term such as a week or two instead of right away. 

2) That ignores where benefit itself comes from which is demand for product. When product is demanded more, prices rise. When prices rise, cash becomes more precious which means people aren't as willing to use it to flip. Instead, they use it to build cities, infrastructure, and improvements or lend to smaller players to do the same for a greater rate of return.

3) That ignores how quickly market offers get replaced when major players try to arbitrage it by clearing all offers and placing new ones. Just because players aren't posting right now doesn't mean they aren't paying attention. If anything, arbitragers often get screwed because of the abundance of players who have supply and remember where prices were before. 

Low resource prices kill newcomers who are entering the game since they can't sell effectively. It consolidates power among the status quo which stagnates activity. If anything, this just means supply increases higher and higher for no good reason.

I also strong disagree with manufacturing's value since pollution is devastating from hospital and recycling center limits. You're better off going all out commerce with one manufacturing and one natural resource line.

During war people are buying up & producing resources for war. Now during peace they’re buying & producing to sell & people don’t need to buy as quickly when not at war.

No matter how long the war lasted, would revert closer to what it’s at now after regardless. A constant state of war would be only way to keep the market as it was with bigger spreads.

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2 hours ago, Dubayoo said:

1) That considers only immediate short-term flipping here which ignores how market moves happen from large buyers and sellers transacting the market all at once. It also ignores larger posts beyond the margin itself which aim to profit over the long-term such as a week or two instead of right away. 

2) That ignores where benefit itself comes from which is demand for product. When product is demanded more, prices rise. When prices rise, cash becomes more precious which means people aren't as willing to use it to flip. Instead, they use it to build cities, infrastructure, and improvements or lend to smaller players to do the same for a greater rate of return.

3) That ignores how quickly market offers get replaced when major players try to arbitrage it by clearing all offers and placing new ones. Just because players aren't posting right now doesn't mean they aren't paying attention. If anything, arbitragers often get screwed because of the abundance of players who have supply and remember where prices were before. 

Low resource prices kill newcomers who are entering the game since they can't sell effectively. It consolidates power among the status quo which stagnates activity. If anything, this just means supply increases higher and higher for no good reason.

I also strong disagree with manufacturing's value since pollution is devastating from hospital and recycling center limits. You're better off going all out commerce with one manufacturing and one natural resource line.

Being someone who’s been playing the market for years, the prices especially in refined resources are above average that I’ve usually sold at, or around about the same. The market has had certain specific fluctuations on/off but mostly have stood around the present prices since at least te Econ change. 

Moreover, I’ve always flipped and te profit margins haven’t been as great as early to middle 2017. So this problem isn’t new as much as something that’s existed for a couple of years now if you want to consider it as such.

Competition has increased and it’s been a while since I’ve tried to corner a resource market, but I really don’t see it being any different than before or inherently bad. If anything the lower prices help nations not on 100/100 cheaper access to the market and stock up, which maybe a positive?

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7 hours ago, Dubayoo said:

1) That considers only immediate short-term flipping here which ignores how market moves happen from large buyers and sellers transacting the market all at once. It also ignores larger posts beyond the margin itself which aim to profit over the long-term such as a week or two instead of right away. 

2) That ignores where benefit itself comes from which is demand for product. When product is demanded more, prices rise. When prices rise, cash becomes more precious which means people aren't as willing to use it to flip. Instead, they use it to build cities, infrastructure, and improvements or lend to smaller players to do the same for a greater rate of return.

3) That ignores how quickly market offers get replaced when major players try to arbitrage it by clearing all offers and placing new ones. Just because players aren't posting right now doesn't mean they aren't paying attention. If anything, arbitragers often get screwed because of the abundance of players who have supply and remember where prices were before.

2

1) Even the "large" offers aren't that large.   On the steel market right now, there are only 2 offers worth over $60,000,000.  3 for Aluminum, 4 for Gasoline.  None of any of those 3 worth over $300,000,000.  My next city is going to cost 1.16 BILLION, which is probably more than the total value of all the current trade offers for any single resource.

2) When you're trying to flip, it's about how much you can flip at what marginal percentage difference.  Spending 5 mill to buy 10,000 food at 50 PPU and selling it for 60 PPU gives the same profit as using that 5 mill to buy 5,000 food at 100 PPU and selling it for 120 PPU.  My experience is that start getting significant diminishing returns on market trading once you're trying to flip more than 10,000 or so of any resource (100-200,000 food) because it starts taking a lot longer for it to be accepted.  

I used to flip around 10 million worth of food at a ~5% margin a couple of times a day on most days and make a nice profit of around 1-2 million.  I started getting diminishing returns when I tried to do more than that, it would flip less often.  That was when my nations income was around 5-10 million per day and so it provided a significant boost.  Now I earn 20-30 mill per day and it's not worth the effort.

In theory, what you say is true, but the size of the offers we see on the market vs the income and stockpiles of most mid to large nations makes it a negligible factor.

For all but very small nations, their real life willingness to post tons of offers over the course of a day is far more of a limiting factor than building up the capital to do those trades.  We'd have to see exponentially higher prices for that to start being a serious consideration.

3) That's not how most people make money off the market, in my experience.  As you say you get undercut pretty quick when you post a large offer that is much higher or lower than the standard price.

Edited by Azaghul
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On 2/27/2019 at 8:25 AM, Radoje said:

The prices are perfect rn.

They're high enough where doing double manufactured resources is more cost effective for mid tier nations than going for high infra, meaning there's more being put on the market than pre-war, that's why they're low and why they'll stay low. At the same time, they're low enough where Commerce is viable at high city count, with high infra and an ITC.

If you want to game the market you easily can, borrow a bunch of money to buy out the market and than post as high as you want.

Also, since when have we started complaining about low rss prices? You can buy up your warchest twice as fast now, meaning you can go start a war in 2 months if you want.

Whats the problem? lol

raw producers would have a reason to complain

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12 hours ago, Dubayoo said:

Low resource prices kill newcomers who are entering the game since they can't sell effectively. It consolidates power among the status quo which stagnates activity. If anything, this just means supply increases higher and higher for no good reason.

No, just no.

If any thing, new comers have it pretty easy nowadays.  The market is cheap for them to keep up, while they can either focus on growing based on Commerce, Resources, or Raiding inactive nations.

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16 hours ago, Dubayoo said:

Low resource prices kill newcomers who are entering the game since they can't sell effectively. It consolidates power among the status quo which stagnates activity. If anything, this just means supply increases higher and higher for no good reason.

Newcomers aren't supposed to compete on the market, since they feasibly can't. Go raid and than ask your alliance for grants. In 3 months you'll be at 14 cities and able to build manufactured resources, this isn't 2016.

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44 minutes ago, Shadowthrone said:

I mean cheaper prices allows newer nations to work the markets easier no? They’d be able to flip more quantities, requiring lesser starting capital. Still can’t see the problem.

Newer nations are more likely to be selling what they organically produce and less likely to be flipping the market, goofball.

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1 hour ago, Shadowthrone said:

Oof. Sorry, I’ve been spoilt :P

It does open some opportunities for long term trades for those not looking for a quick flip. If somebody buys up a bunch of resources while prices are down; will probably eventually go back up again when there is a major war.

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On 2/27/2019 at 10:47 AM, Noctis Anarch Caelum said:

During war people are buying up & producing resources for war. Now during peace they’re buying & producing to sell & people don’t need to buy as quickly when not at war.

No matter how long the war lasted, would revert closer to what it’s at now after regardless. A constant state of war would be only way to keep the market as it was with bigger spreads.

After a long war, people rebuild their warchests while the supply for product is incredibly low. Price doesn't crash because people don't have much product to sell.

On 2/27/2019 at 10:49 AM, Shadowthrone said:

Being someone who’s been playing the market for years, the prices especially in refined resources are above average that I’ve usually sold at, or around about the same. The market has had certain specific fluctuations on/off but mostly have stood around the present prices since at least te Econ change. 

Moreover, I’ve always flipped and te profit margins haven’t been as great as early to middle 2017. So this problem isn’t new as much as something that’s existed for a couple of years now if you want to consider it as such.

Competition has increased and it’s been a while since I’ve tried to corner a resource market, but I really don’t see it being any different than before or inherently bad. If anything the lower prices help nations not on 100/100 cheaper access to the market and stock up, which maybe a positive?

Really not sure I agree here. Prices are way below usual across the board. Steel is at least 3000 a piece, aluminum floats around 2500, gasoline is between 2k and 2500, and munitions float around 2k.

If you're talking about the extreme beginning of the game, fair enough, but that's when there was a lot less cash in the world to spare on product.

Yes, competition is increasing. That's the problem. People are competing for margins more instead of using the resources they're competing over.

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On 2/27/2019 at 4:10 PM, Azaghul said:

1) Even the "large" offers aren't that large.   On the steel market right now, there are only 2 offers worth over $60,000,000.  3 for Aluminum, 4 for Gasoline.  None of any of those 3 worth over $300,000,000.  My next city is going to cost 1.16 BILLION, which is probably more than the total value of all the current trade offers for any single resource.

2) When you're trying to flip, it's about how much you can flip at what marginal percentage difference.  Spending 5 mill to buy 10,000 food at 50 PPU and selling it for 60 PPU gives the same profit as using that 5 mill to buy 5,000 food at 100 PPU and selling it for 120 PPU.  My experience is that start getting significant diminishing returns on market trading once you're trying to flip more than 10,000 or so of any resource (100-200,000 food) because it starts taking a lot longer for it to be accepted.  

I used to flip around 10 million worth of food at a ~5% margin a couple of times a day on most days and make a nice profit of around 1-2 million.  I started getting diminishing returns when I tried to do more than that, it would flip less often.  That was when my nations income was around 5-10 million per day and so it provided a significant boost.  Now I earn 20-30 mill per day and it's not worth the effort.

In theory, what you say is true, but the size of the offers we see on the market vs the income and stockpiles of most mid to large nations makes it a negligible factor.

For all but very small nations, their real life willingness to post tons of offers over the course of a day is far more of a limiting factor than building up the capital to do those trades.  We'd have to see exponentially higher prices for that to start being a serious consideration.

3) That's not how most people make money off the market, in my experience.  As you say you get undercut pretty quick when you post a large offer that is much higher or lower than the standard price.

To be clear, I'm saying market moves happen from people who buy or sell what's already posted.

Yes, there's diminishing marginal returns because there's a lot of hypercompetition on the market. That's why major market movers are key. They trade with whoever's on the margin and then dive deeper into whoever's beyond it. That's when your long-term flippers come into play who make big posts behind the margin.

The third point was made to point out the abundance of potential market participation which isn't observed until arbitragers try to play. There's a lot of hidden supply out there which isn't revealed.

 

 

On 2/27/2019 at 8:32 PM, Buorhann said:

No, just no.

If any thing, new comers have it pretty easy nowadays.  The market is cheap for them to keep up, while they can either focus on growing based on Commerce, Resources, or Raiding inactive nations.

Newcomers don't buy resources. They sell resources. Why would cheap prices help them?

19 hours ago, Radoje said:

Newcomers aren't supposed to compete on the market, since they feasibly can't. Go raid and than ask your alliance for grants. In 3 months you'll be at 14 cities and able to build manufactured resources, this isn't 2016.

I'm talking about raw sales of resources, not flipping, for newcomers.

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1 hour ago, Dubayoo said:

To be clear, I'm saying market moves happen from people who buy or sell what's already posted.

Yes, there's diminishing marginal returns because there's a lot of hypercompetition on the market. That's why major market movers are key. They trade with whoever's on the margin and then dive deeper into whoever's beyond it. That's when your long-term flippers come into play who make big posts behind the margin.

The third point was made to point out the abundance of potential market participation which isn't observed until arbitragers try to play. There's a lot of hidden supply out there which isn't revealed.

 

 

Newcomers don't buy resources. They sell resources. Why would cheap prices help them?

I'm talking about raw sales of resources, not flipping, for newcomers.

Also with the war over; there are less people buying up resources as quickly to either convert into war resources or buy war resources right away at market price for immediate use. With the war over, people can spend more time posting buy & sell offers; which closes the margins. I'm also seeing prices spike for resources to higher prices than I've seen during the war; before going lower again.

So I don't think the war lasting longer would have had a significant effect on market prices once it ended.

Edit: Also lowest sell price on Iron was 2,800 not long ago, managed to sell my Iron on hand 2,555 each; although didn't have much. However that might be more than what I sold a bunch of Iron for while at a high during the war in order to fund one of my cities.

Edited by Noctis Anarch Caelum
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Prices are crashing across the board in every category.

Is there really no opportunity to declare war right now from how cheap resources are getting?

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3 hours ago, Dubayoo said:

Prices are crashing across the board in every category.

Is there really no opportunity to declare war right now from how cheap resources are getting?

I’d like it to crash even more.

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