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Frawley

Market Improvements

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Yeesh, can't believe you guys are serious about nixing Kosonome trading on a game level as opposed to a player level. I do note that Bad Company posters are supporting this, so...

 

I also find it amusing that NPO wants to implement true algorithmic trading as opposed to TKR scalpers.

Edited by A Boy Named Crow
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These ideas are super slick. The problem is there are multiple ways to abuse the system without the rules we already have. I'm on the fence for this one.

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Nixing Kosonome, I'm trying to legalise trade bots...

Auto fulfillment is market standard in the real world. 

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Well, putting a confirmation screen up would decrease the rate of fat finger trades, but I'll also note that this is standard in the real world as well.

 

Also, as for automatic fulfillment, limit orders, market makers, and attempts to increase market liquidity are also standard in the real world. Putting in a "buy/sell at market price" type order would be useful, certainly, with an estimate in the confirmation screen of its probable cost.

 

That said:

 

https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/no-one-has-a-clue-except-the-person-who-pressed-the-wrong-button-a-history-of-some-of-the-worst-fat-finger-trades-20190128-p50u0t.html

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5 minutes ago, A Boy Named Crow said:

Well, putting a confirmation screen up would decrease the rate of fat finger trades, but I'll also note that this is standard in the real world as well.

The difference between the examples provided and the game, is that all of those examples are highly experienced people making one off frickups, and in most of the cases the money was returned in full.  In the game, most of the errors are new players and irregular traders who get caught with there pants down, because the left a comma in the price or didn't notice that the drop-down defaulted to food, even though they were on a coal screen previously. 

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Oh no, I'm mentioning that most brokerages reduce fat finger trades with an optional confirmation screen as well.

Edited by A Boy Named Crow

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20 minutes ago, A Boy Named Crow said:

I also find it amusing that NPO wants to implement true algorithmic trading as opposed to TKR scalpers.

Just saw this.

Believe it or not Frawley =/= NPO, the ideas I submit are my own.

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I like the sound of this, but I'm not an expert on the market. 

However, I'd expect tkrs trade Bot term to be dropped if it went ahead. Level playing field after all.

Edited by Epi
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1 hour ago, Alex said:

I think 1, 3, and 5 as well as the bugfixes are what you can realistically expect sometime in the future. I don't have any desire to set up automatic trade fulfillment or allow trade bots in the game, however.

You said it yourself - the market is one of the best parts about the game. Automating it into something meaningless would, I think, quite effectively destroy one of the best parts of the game. Opportunities for arbitrage make the game far more interesting in my opinion. Communication about trades, speculation on prices, etc. all add to the important of in-game coordination and activity. Letting algorithms decide all the buying and selling would remove a huge driver of activity in-game.

Hi Alex,

Glad to hear a number of the items are on the radar.

With regards to 2. I get what you are saying, but these arbitrage opportunities are already primarily picked up by bots, both semi and fully automated, so I don't see why they making trades auto-fulfill like in RL would be that much of an imposition.  It doesn't actually change people's behavior, it just means the highest buy and the lowest sell, always represent the current market spread.  If you wanted to replicate the arbitrage opportunities in RL in game, that would require separate markets, not a single exchange, and there would need to be transactional costs between those markets.  Tying markets to Continents would be a step in that direction.

Re: Trade Bots
I take your point, but I disagree, Trade bots would exist to be market makers assuming 2 was in place, much like they do in RL, and 'algorithms' have to be designed by someone, and the reality of P&W is that we have far more frequent wars, and disruption events (alliances stockpiling, rebuilding, repaying loans etc) that make our market quite volatile.  It would be interesting to see people compete against each other from an academic point of view here.

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15 hours ago, Frawley said:

Hi Alex,

Glad to hear a number of the items are on the radar.

With regards to 2. I get what you are saying, but these arbitrage opportunities are already primarily picked up by bots, both semi and fully automated, so I don't see why they making trades auto-fulfill like in RL would be that much of an imposition.  It doesn't actually change people's behavior, it just means the highest buy and the lowest sell, always represent the current market spread.  If you wanted to replicate the arbitrage opportunities in RL in game, that would require separate markets, not a single exchange, and there would need to be transactional costs between those markets.  Tying markets to Continents would be a step in that direction.

Re: Trade Bots
I take your point, but I disagree, Trade bots would exist to be market makers assuming 2 was in place, much like they do in RL, and 'algorithms' have to be designed by someone, and the reality of P&W is that we have far more frequent wars, and disruption events (alliances stockpiling, rebuilding, repaying loans etc) that make our market quite volatile.  It would be interesting to see people compete against each other from an academic point of view here.

I agree about arbitrage, and that's actually the concept I had set up for StateKraft before I shelved the project. I think it's a little late here to make such a drastic change to how trading works.

As for trade bots, sure, the algorithm creation might be fun for the ~10 people that are capable of making a trade bot and designing an algorithm to trade for them. Everyone else will be stuck using someone else's bot, or getting taken advantage of by trading manually. It would eliminate personal player participation for 99% of the players in the game.

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I strongly agree with Alex about the trade bots and automatic offers.  One of the things I like about this game is for someone who is especially motivated and active, they can make extra money day trading, posting lots of offers buying and reselling resources and profiting off the difference. 

I really like the dynamic of having a choice of whether or not to just accept an offer and get what you want immediately at a less favorable price, or post something at a more favorable price at the cost of having to wait on it to be accepted and with the risk that it will not be accepted at all.  More active players who are willing to wait and keep posting offers will get better deals.  And it's fun to come up with strategies to post offers in a way that are more likely to be accepted and outcompete other traders.

It's also favorable to newer players and smaller nations because smaller trade offers are more likely to be accepted quickly and less likely to be undercut.  There are diminishing returns to how much you can earn day trading.  Speaking personally, when my nation was much smaller and my income was in the 5-15 mill a day range, I often earned somewhere around a million a day trading resources.  And even when I wasn't day trading, I still made a lot of effort to get the best prices that I could when buying or selling resources for my nation.  As I got bigger, it became a smaller percentage of my income and stopped being worth the real-life effort to optimize.  Now I do more of a mix of posting or accepting offers depending on how big the spread is, how much I'm trying to buy or sell, and how pressing my need is to make the exchange.

I'll even say that it's taught me some things that can apply to real life economics.  In particular, the idea that you can get better prices for yourself if you have more time and keep money and/or resources sitting around available to be traded.  Having to balance getting better prices vs the opportunity cost of keeping aside cash and resources for trading.

Edited by Azaghul
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On 1/29/2019 at 7:43 PM, Frawley said:

2. Automatic Trade Fulfillment and Matching
Presently, the game has no automatic matching module, which means it is possible for there to be buy offers above the value of the current sell offers.  Presently these arbitrages are taken up by opportunistic traders like myself.  While this is great for traders, it is not ideal for the buyers and sellers, this could be rectified by trade offers automatically fulfilling overlapping prices prior to remainder of the trade being placed on the open market. 

One of the main terms in Knightfall is getting rid of a trade bot to prevent people from screwing up a trade offer and not having enough time to fix it before someone pounces on it. This proposal all but ensures that if someone enters their trade offer wrong they will get screwed over. I know from personal experience I have screwed an offer up, say click sell instead of buy or vice versa but was able to quickly take the offer down before losing it. This would eliminate any possibility of being able to quickly fix your mistake.

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