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Frawley

City Cost Idea

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Good idea, nice implementation, nice posting, but too complicated mathematically. You're pitching this idea to a guy who has over 100% probabilities in a probability of meltdown chart despite being an Econ student.

Also, I'll point out that if this is tested on the test server post-reset, the formula will trigger a NaN error due to there being 0 cities above 10 cities. Easily-patched with an if function and setting 0% discount there if there are no cities at 10 cities.

Edited by Inst
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7 hours ago, Inst said:

Good idea, nice implementation, nice posting, but too complicated mathematically. You're pitching this idea to a guy who has over 100% probabilities in a probability of meltdown chart despite being an Econ student.

I didn't bother to check Alex's math there, but seeing as his stipulation was that there was 4,380 chances for a meltdown to occur over the course of a year a probability over 100% just means you would expect the event to occur X number of times.  Aka a 'probability' of 230% would be an expected event occurrence of 2.3 times per year at a set number of cities.

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Thats too complex for my understanding.

If you all join BK, we will fund all of your cities.

Edited by Biel

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More that you'd state "average number of occurrences" instead of screwing with probability, or do a proper 99.99% etc odds.


Early adoption does have the advantage of not being time-based (as I'd suggest) instead, so you'd end up with 3 nations left in the game with more than 1000 cities each. It'd also create a left-skewed distribution of city count, although whether that's desirable (80% of actives have around 30 cities) is another question.

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@Frawley

 

Just curious what you'd think, but what if we used sigmoid functions?  x / (1+|x|) is centered on 0, but we can easily adjust it to center on the averaged city count with x = current city count - average number of cities. We also need a more elegant way to filter out micro-cities and cities from players who don't play; the city count is left-skewed and just discarding cities with less than 10 cities is rather off, especially if the "people who go idle and inflate nation counts for 3 months" number keeps on moving as a consequence.

 

Arithmetic mean gives you a number below the true peak of city counts, median gives you 5 cities, and mode gives you 1 city. Would a geometric mean work?

 

The reason I prefer sigmoid functions is that a healthy game doesn't go into bimodal distribution based on city counts. Instead, it sees a numerically large center, perhaps around the Thin Roq Line (16 cities), with essentially gaussian distribution with Typhon-land and TKR-land being outliers, instead of tiers.

Edited by A Boy Named Crow

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