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Why Trump Will Not Be President in 2018

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I imagine Trump will not resign and will stay in office through re-election.

Despite all the problems you identify, the Democrats are even more hopeless.  They will run on Trump not building the wall successfully in 2018 or on NAFTA or some dumb!@#$ neoliberal bullshit, then run Corey Booker in 2020 on a platform of charter schools for everybody and more earned income tax credits, and go down in flames.

Who will have hacked the election in 2020 I wonder, maybe Iran or China this time.  McCain's remaining nontumorous portion of his brain will say how he will vote for putting all the Mexicans in death camps "with a heavy heart", and newly elected Senator Chelsea Clinton will also vote for it saying how now isn't the time to oppose popular platform items when the important battle to save NAFTA and earned income tax credits are in danger of being overturned.

 

Simply put you vastly underestimate how stupid, credulous and authoritarian the USA has become.   The education system has been underfunded for 3 decades, people are ground down plebians trying to avoid foreclosure.  The only people who will actually resist this sort of thing are AntiFa, who "responsible Democrats" also oppose because how dare you sir, that's now how we DO things.

Edited by Ogaden

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1 hour ago, Ogaden said:

Simply put you vastly underestimate how stupid, credulous and authoritarian the USA has become.  

I wasn't aware authoritarian governments allowed you to buy M203 grenade launchers? 

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38 minutes ago, WISD0MTREE said:

I wasn't aware authoritarian governments allowed you to buy M203 grenade launchers? 

Actually all authoritarian regimes rely on extralegal paramilitaries.  Despite what you've heard, Mao's china for instance issued almost everyone a gun.  During the Cultural Revolution there were running gun battles between different ideological factions of various paramilitaries linked to different factions of the Communist Party.

The Syrian government before the revolution relied on heavily armed gangsters to act as the business end of the Assad family.  While many were related to Hafez, many were just business connected.  A heavily armed populace is actually quite useful for population control especially if there is a class differential between who is armed and who isn't.  This is why for instance most gun control measures in the past in the United States were focused on keeping inexpensive firearms out of the market, not firearms in general, because they wanted to disarm poor black folks, not everyone.

Even in authoritarian regimes (and you're assuming the USA isn't an authoritarian regime, in many ways it already is) you don't want to sent the military in to shoot people who don't like the government, because that is a risky coin toss, heads they shoot the protestors, tails they decide they like the protestors and shoot you.  During the Tianamen Square protests they sent in the army and the army refused to attack, they had to send in troops from Inner Mongolia to shoot the protestors.

The police will happily mow down anyone who opposes the state but they usually aren't trained for counterinsurgency and will run away if the angry mob is larger than a certain size (see Egypt 2011) but if people never rise up or are kept down through indirect means it's easier to oppress people forever.

Also the modern version of "if you give them cannon you give them independence" is not a M203, it's a TOW.  See Syria right now and the reluctance to arm rebels directly with TOWs.  And guess what, you can buy everything in the USA you want except a TOW.

Edited by Ogaden

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2 hours ago, Ogaden said:

I imagine Trump will not resign and will stay in office through re-election.

Despite all the problems you identify, the Democrats are even more hopeless.  They will run on Trump not building the wall successfully in 2018 or on NAFTA or some dumb!@#$ neoliberal bullshit, then run Corey Booker in 2020 on a platform of charter schools for everybody and more earned income tax credits, and go down in flames. Al Franken/Cory Booker/Elizabeth Warren/Bernie all would fit well.

 

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3 hours ago, Ogaden said:

I imagine Trump will not resign and will stay in office through re-election.

Despite all the problems you identify, the Democrats are even more hopeless.  They will run on Trump not building the wall successfully in 2018 or on NAFTA or some dumb!@#$ neoliberal bullshit, then run Corey Booker in 2020 on a platform of charter schools for everybody and more earned income tax credits, and go down in flames.

Who will have hacked the election in 2020 I wonder, maybe Iran or China this time.  McCain's remaining nontumorous portion of his brain will say how he will vote for putting all the Mexicans in death camps "with a heavy heart", and newly elected Senator Chelsea Clinton will also vote for it saying how now isn't the time to oppose popular platform items when the important battle to save NAFTA and earned income tax credits are in danger of being overturned.

 

Simply put you vastly underestimate how stupid, credulous and authoritarian the USA has become.   The education system has been underfunded for 3 decades, people are ground down plebians trying to avoid foreclosure.  The only people who will actually resist this sort of thing are AntiFa, who "responsible Democrats" also oppose because how dare you sir, that's now how we DO things.

Thank you for telling these others here how correct I am. 

As for Antifa, or Alt-Left I should say... please do destroy the Democrats. A country doesn't need two right wing parties. 

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15 hours ago, Ogaden said:

-snip-

Also the modern version of "if you give them cannon you give them independence" is not a M203, it's a TOW.  See Syria right now and the reluctance to arm rebels directly with TOWs.  And guess what, you can buy everything in the USA you want except a TOW.

{if accidentally reply, will respond later}

I used a M203 because I could find one on Gunbroker. You can actually buy a TOW off the civilian market if you can find one. It would be a Destructive Device according to the National Firearms Act, meaning you will need to fill out some extra paperwork and pay a $200 tax stamp. You will also need to do this for the first rocket for it. Every rocket after it, you only need to fill out the first page and send it to the ATF (with a $5 tax stamp). 

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The State Department is likely (and rightly in my opinion) going to have some really, really serious issues with that kind of weaponry being sent to a group in Syria. 

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I think on the next election in 2020 Trump will become a president as it was in 2016. I remember that there was a hot race for the presidency between Trump and Clinton, but Trump had more supporters, so he won. Actually, many people still support him. Every time I play Electoral.io game, I see that more people play for Republicans, so it said that they support them even in a game! The virtual presidential election is, of course, easier than real election (you need just collect votes, money, and scores for your candidate) but no less interesting. Also, judging by the current political situation, I am sure that Trump will remain president.

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I'm willing to bet money that Trump gets another 4 years.

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On 11/24/2018 at 10:19 AM, Balish said:

I'm willing to bet money that Trump gets another 4 years.

Entirely depends how the Dems go about that.  If they choose a far left leaning person, like Warren or Sanders - they'll lose.  You choose a more moderate one that makes some of the actual alt-right (Not the trolling alt-right) or slightly leaning R voters make a tougher decision.

Not quite sure who the Dems could pick though.  Could be a easy re-election for Trump seeing how the R voters are out in force.

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6 minutes ago, Buorhann said:

Entirely depends how the Dems go about that.  If they choose a far left leaning person, like Warren or Sanders - they'll lose.  You choose a more moderate one that makes some of the actual alt-right (Not the trolling alt-right) or slightly leaning R voters make a tougher decision.

Not quite sure who the Dems could pick though.  Could be a easy re-election for Trump seeing how the R voters are out in force.

100% this.

If the Dems ran a candidate that pushed for a border wall, pushed healthcare reform, pushed for amnesty, promised to expand gun rights, and pushed an infrastructure spending bill, then they could win. If they ran a Democrat that gave the right some of what they want, they could win.

They won't do that though. The Democratic Party is a mess where they won't give in to the radical far-left elements, nor will they completely distance themselves either. They're in a weird limbo with the Democratic Socialist and SJW types.

At the very least, my prediction is that they won't run a white male candidate. It'll be a person of color or a woman (or both). In the past 2 years the Democrats have showed no signs of moderating and are still pretty wild. 2020 will be interesting.

Trump will win again in 2020 too btw.

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29 minutes ago, Thalmor said:

In the past 2 years the Democrats have showed no signs of moderating

Could say the same thing about the Republican Party to. Each party has been pushed to the extreme, one going to the far left, and the other going to the far right. The moderate voices will generally always be ignored, especially now that both parties are on a doctrine where neither side is really up for bipartisan leadership.

 

 

33 minutes ago, Thalmor said:

The Democratic Party is a mess where they won't give in to the radical far-left elements

The Republican party wont give in to the radical far-right elements either. I mean, the Democratic Party isnt going to step away from their radicalization but the Republican Party isn't either. There wont be any change, and it will follow the general trend that American politics has always followed. A few years of Democratic rule and a few years of republican, both getting blamed for the problem and for good reason to. Both parties are a disgrace to the American people. Both do not support the people.

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39 minutes ago, Thalmor said:

They're in a weird limbo with the Democratic Socialist and SJW types

Eh, Republicans have a relatively large SJW type as well. Not sure what you'd call them, but when i get into a political debate with a lot of republicans they generally result to insults and complete falsehoods. I only met a very limited number of republicans i can respect and listen to their side of the story, and that's because they put up their counterargument without resulting in throwing the biggest tantrum ever seen. I generally don't agree with them, but i will respect the small group i have met that have actually held a respected debate with me. 

 

I also have similar views of the Democratic Party, A lot of times they throw tantrums as well, shame the majority of the population cant handle a debate without resulting into a pile of insults and no counterarguments. 

Edited by Natalia Poklonskaya

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41 minutes ago, Thalmor said:

If the Dems ran a candidate that pushed for a border wall, pushed healthcare reform, pushed for amnesty, promised to expand gun rights, and pushed an infrastructure spending bill

Personally, I am against building a border wall for a couple of reasons. One, it is a waste of money. It will cost America a lot of money and resources that could of been diverted into sciences, education, rebuilding America's shitty infrastructure and etc, and then on top of it, we will have to pay additional to keep the wall maintained and staffed. Imo its not worth it and looking for alternatives to eliminating illegal immigration is preferable. Unfortunately, illegal immigration will happen as long as Mexico, Central and South America keep falling to poverty and drug cartels, and it isnt worth the money to go fix other countries issues in the short run. 

 

Most democratic politicians do want a healthcare reform, but they want Healthcare to be more affordable, elimination of pre-condition denial and etc. they just refuse to show a plan that could actually do anything to accomplish that. They failed with Obamacare imo, prices went up and didnt make it affordable to everyone, and punished the ones who couldnt afford it, but was above the line to still get the fine. If they are going to issue fines for families that could afford it, then fine, but they didnt. They still targeted families that were unable to cover it after all bills were accounted for besides healthcare. Healthcare prices in America is outrageous and really, that should be what is targeted and finding ways to make healthcare costs to lower will fix the issue, not mandating Health insurance that they already cant afford. If healthcare was cheaper, insurance companies could lower down premiums, however the healthcare industry will never allow that. They make too much off the poor and insurance companies to allow that. 

 

Ive only seen the far-left democrats push for gun control. Moderate Democrats are more likely to work with a comprehensive bill but once again, moderates in both parties are too scared to work with eachother, so they fall to party lines. The Second Amendment guarantees gun rights, but at the same time, we need to find reasonable measures to lower gun deaths. All im saying is someone mentally challenged shouldnt have a gun. There is just no way to enforce a mental requirement though so I dont really push for that(By enforce, there isnt a way to keep politics out of it, so it would be biased depending on the area). 

 

I dont know anyone who is outright against infrastructure spending bills. Without doing research, i would assume Republicans are the ones in the way of that, considering the current political line is everything needs to be cut in spending except the military but i have no knowledge on what either party's politicians stances on finally fixing America's infrastructure

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7 hours ago, Buorhann said:

Entirely depends how the Dems go about that.  If they choose a far left leaning person, like Warren or Sanders - they'll lose.  You choose a more moderate one that makes some of the actual alt-right (Not the trolling alt-right) or slightly leaning R voters make a tougher decision.

Not quite sure who the Dems could pick though.  Could be a easy re-election for Trump seeing how the R voters are out in force.

I would agree that a large part of it depends on the Dem party nominating someone who is trash, but I have faith that will happen...  Even with the removal of the superdelegates and "socialist" candidates, the Democrat party is the same as it was during the 2016 race.

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8 hours ago, Natalia Poklonskaya said:

All im saying is someone mentally challenged shouldnt have a gun. There is just no way to enforce a mental requirement though so I dont really push for that(By enforce, there isnt a way to keep politics out of it, so it would be biased depending on the area).  

Ive only seen the far-left democrats push for gun control. Moderate Democrats are more likely to work with a comprehensive bill but once again, moderates in both parties are too scared to work with eachother, so they fall to party lines.

It's already a law if you've been involuntarily committed to a mental institution, you're a prohibited possessor.

At this point, most Republican politicians aren't pro-gun. They had almost two years and didn't pass a single pro-gun bill. They could've gone for national reciprocity or remove suppressors from the NFA but still requiring a 4473 for them, both of which are fairly moderate, but they didn't. Trump's DOJ and ATF are expected to classify a bump stock as a machine gun in the coming days, effectively reinterpreting " by a single function of the trigger" to mean a single conscious pull of the trigger.

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3 hours ago, WISD0MTREE said:

It's already a law if you've been involuntarily committed to a mental institution, you're a prohibited possessor.

Never heard of this, but this doesnt mean anything. Tons of mentally Unstable people have not been sent to a mental institution. 

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On 12/2/2018 at 3:50 PM, Natalia Poklonskaya said:

Never heard of this, but this doesnt mean anything. Tons of mentally Unstable people have not been sent to a mental institution. 

Changing it so you can't own a gun if you've been in an institution, voluntarily or not, would discourage gun owners with mental health issues from seeking help for the fear of losing their guns. Expanding it to beyond institutions, you'd run into issues such as what constitutes a mental illness that should bar someone from owning a gun (OCD is very different from psychopathy), states refusing to issue a permit for the vast majority of people (such as Hawaii only issuing 4 issuing a concealed carry permit in 18 years (pg 52) and banning open carry, creating a de facto ban on the bearing of arms), HIPAA, and the issue below.

On 12/2/2018 at 3:38 AM, Natalia Poklonskaya said:

There is just no way to enforce a mental requirement though so I dont really push for that(By enforce, there isnt a way to keep politics out of it, so it would be biased depending on the area).

 

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On 12/2/2018 at 2:32 AM, Buorhann said:

Entirely depends how the Dems go about that.  If they choose a far left leaning person, like Warren or Sanders - they'll lose.  You choose a more moderate one that makes some of the actual alt-right (Not the trolling alt-right) or slightly leaning R voters make a tougher decision.

Not quite sure who the Dems could pick though.  Could be a easy re-election for Trump seeing how the R voters are out in force.

LoL picking weak center left candidates is the reason why Trump won in the first place. The real energy of the Democratic party is with the Progressives NOT the Neoliberal Clinton esque wing. Neoliberlism has failed to deliver results which is why there is a rise in Far-right parties because of a general desperation and lack of enthusiasm. 

I really wish this silly myth of being more centrist which is really means being Republican light would die. It's a weak failed strategy because they have no counter argument to bad right wing ideas which is why Clinton had no message in 2016 and 2 years later 2018 they still had no message.

The idea is you actually appeal to your base and excite voters by offering solutions to real economic issues Like Medicare for All that impacts their lives. This dumb strategy of Democrats trying to appeal to Republicans by being more centrist is a failed strategy which is why those Dems that tried campaigning as Republican light got wiped out with the exception of Joe Mansion. The largest voting block is the Independent voter because they are sick of both parties and are hungry for real change and solutions to their problems.

 

Obama generated excitement because he promised change , Trump appealed on the idea of not being a politician , Bernie packed stadiums because he offered real solutions and spoke honestly about things which hardly get mentioned.

People do NOT want Left centrist moderates which are really just corporate owned candidates. This is not the 1990's that old cliche crap is not going to work anymore nobody is buying it. 

People are hungry for change because the system has failed to deliver any substantial improvement to them for over 30 years.

 

Pretending that these problems started 2017 when trump came into office is not realistic    

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If you seriously think Sanders will beat Trump, you’re kidding yourself.  Maybe in 2040s will a socialist be considered once all the Cold War era voters have passed away.

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The term socialist is not as scary as it used to be partly because a whole generation who grew up after the end of cold war but the main reason is the economic disparity of peoples lives.

The vast majority of people support Medicare for All as polls have shown. Kind of hard to peddle excuses why 30 million Americans don't have Health coverage and we pay the highest in healthcare costs and pharmaceuticals while the rest of the world has solved these problems long ago. 

Also putting a living wage on the ballot is always a winner as people vote their interests.

Those two issues alone are enough to excite the base and bring in Independent and new voters because they are universal and effect everyone regardless of party affiliation.  However it would require the whole party to champion these ideas from coast to coast to energize people which seems less likely as the neoliberals top agenda is staying in power and defeating the progressives as they would rather loose to Republicans than loose power to progressives.

 

If anything the real threat to Sanders is not Trump but the Democratic establishment which will work overtime to undermine him just like they did in 2016 in favor of some corporate tool like Kamala Harris , Cory Booker or Joe Biden all favs of the establishment and destined to loose. 

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17 hours ago, Zaxon said:

The vast majority of people support Medicare for All as polls have shown. Kind of hard to peddle excuses why 30 million Americans don't have Health coverage and we pay the highest in healthcare costs and pharmaceuticals while the rest of the world has solved these problems long ago.  

I know, it's absurd that healthcare costs are rising so fast. Same with college and childcare. If only they were like TVs and new cars.

College%20Inflation_0.png

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I'm just going to step in here and say that the recent release of court documents related to Michael Cohen's indictment from federal prosecutors put Trump under criminal charges of campaign finance fraud. For those of you who don't know a lick of US law, the burden of proof in a criminal case is much higher than it is for a civil case; in a criminal case, you have to be without a doubt. In civil cases, only the consideration of a higher likelihood. 

Translation: the fact that Cohen is going to jail shows that prosecutors have overwhelming evidence that Trump violated those laws. Trump is going to jail, or he's going to initiate a constitutional crisis where a sitting president looks to pardon himself. There is even speculation that Trump will resign 10 minutes before he leaves office and have Pence pardon him. If Trump runs in 2020, he'll have to do it behind bars or on the ashes of the American republic.

The irony of all this is that Trump didn't need to pay hush payments to his mistresses. If Trump fricked a supporter's wife, that supporter would have still voted for him. That's how degenerate and broken Trump supporters are, they just don't care. Whatever the case, the Republican party is now the party of Trump. If Trump doesn't run in 2020, nobody is going to show up at the polls for Jeb Bush. 

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