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7/9/2017 - The Great Deflation!


Alex
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4 hours ago, Dubayoo said:

What you posted were two charts that I even approved.  There's no point to get snarky.

Regarding your equation, the fact is iron and coal production remains constant once the number of iron and coal mines is capped.  On top of that, steel production remains constant per mill, but people can have more mills than before.  This is going to drive up the quantity of steel which will lower the price.  Obviously, operating costs go up, but the market doesn't care about that.  The market cares about comparing supply to demand.  If people aren't buying steel anyway (which they'll be buying less of since they'll have less improvement slots for factories and dockyards to build tanks and ships with), then the price will still go down. 

Ultimately, it's the same problem the market had before with manufacturing being overproduced from the absence of enough war in the world.  Once the coal and iron mines cap out, the previous prices should return.  Demand still hasn't been stimulated.

Do you even understand the impact of this update ? 

I will give you a hint , look for all the people who had maxed 2 or more refined resources ( or all of them for that matter ) and a couple raws on top of that ( particularly food) and look at what they are producing now.

Actually I will just spell it out for you, people aren't maxing every resource available to them now, they are specialising in only a couple or even just one resource. Even if they  are on their own producing more of that one resource, the fact that the entire game has had their production capacity limited in such a way means the general supply of resources has been dropped since we are all forced to specialise now into a few resources.

Example, I may have doubled my food production and increased uran production but I've lost all gas, alum and munitions production meaning I can't sell these three refineds and will have to buy them from other people who have specialised into these resources.

So we have decreased supply and increased demand. Given the full impact of this update will probably take a month and most likely a war to be fully seen but I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some of the impact in a couple weeks if not sooner.

 

@Seb

Your figures in the calcuation based on the production price I assume?

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7 hours ago, hadesflames said:

 

Yes, actually. You worthless removed ruin communities. That's why no one likes you, no body gives a shit that you like to raid. Now piss off.

u ok m8?

1 hour ago, Nemesis said:

3.5k land superior master race ;)

 

Alright alright, it's not a dickfighting contest or anything... *buys 1k more land*

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2 hours ago, Arkiri Arch said:

To be honest, no matter what this update included, Alex would be crucified for changing the game. He could have *actually* fixed the problem (which he did not), and he would be getting roasted by the community for "being such an idiot for changing the game in a way I do not like." Politics and War is stagnated by politics more than any game play feature. The only thing Alex can do is try to make the game at least a little bit fun and ride out whats here. You all realize the players is what stagnated the game, not Alex or game mechanics.

I don't think the most prevalent complaint itt is to do with that most *enthralling* discussion of "stagnation" lol. And saying we'd always, without exception, criticise Sheepy for doing anything about the market issue is objectively wrong. He's made plenty of changes and updates that have been met with unanimous praise. Where he went wrong in this case was focusing on a lesser issue to do with the complexity of city building (I haven't seen anyone taking much about "specialisation" so I wasn't aware it was an issue until now) when most people just wanted the market fixed.

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7 hours ago, Azaghul said:

I support these changes and Sheepy's willingness to make big updates knowing he'll get flack for it.  I don't know if it will help me/my alliance, but it's good for the game.

See, that's where you're actually wrong. This is NOT better for the game UNLESS the game got reset. The people who this hurts the least, is anyone with high infra counts, since they have open slots with nothing worthwhile to fill them. Everyone else, which is about 90% of the game, are getting hurt by this. It's just simple math.

 

So when are some raw resource Projects going to be added? They should've been added long before this addition.

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22 hours ago, Thalmor said:

That's why new players join alliances for the support structure. 

New players will be just fine. In a few weeks, after everybody sell their stockpiles and prices go up, nations will be able to go full 100% raw resource production and make tons of money from that.

 

 

I did my first year of the game with brief times in alliances and mainly no alliance.  It will slow the game down. Slow is what (That terrible game that is totally irrelevant and I shouldn't be bringing it up anyways) is. I still maintain this will hurt new players. I am a middle level with a 500 day old nation. I did some juggling and got some of my income back. I still expect I will not buy credits and support the game. In the end while we are players we are also customers. We have to like the product. 

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1 minute ago, whiskerz said:

 

 

I did my first year of the game with brief times in alliances and mainly no alliance.  It will slow the game down. Slow is what (That terrible game that is totally irrelevant and I shouldn't be bringing it up anyways) is. I still maintain this will hurt new players. I am a middle level with a 500 day old nation. I did some juggling and got some of my income back. I still expect I will not buy credits and support the game. In the end while we are players we are also customers. We have to like the product. 

None of that countered any of my points, but okay.

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3 hours ago, Valdoroth said:

See, that's where you're actually wrong. This is NOT better for the game UNLESS the game got reset. The people who this hurts the least, is anyone with high infra counts, since they have open slots with nothing worthwhile to fill them. Everyone else, which is about 90% of the game, are getting hurt by this. It's just simple math.

 

So when are some raw resource Projects going to be added? They should've been added long before this addition.

Take a look at Pantheon 's top nations and then come back to me. They literally have thousands of infra and the associated slots which they cannot use for production without the black plague making an apperance.

The smaller guys can at least use their infra for production and not be penalised for it, the whales are pretty much stuck to spamming military improvements and making $ from commerce. Before you complain about that and say "oh noes the whales make all the money ", just take into account the risk of buying high infra and the fact that a significant portion of the lower infra nations in this game  deliberately choose to have lower infra counts. 

This is a good update simply because it has added economic variability and specialisation to the macro economic gameplay aspect of the game itself which is precisly what this game has needed for years now. Now if we can only get something similar for the warfare aspect (perks anyone ?)....

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15 hours ago, Nemesis said:

Do you even understand the impact of this update ? 

I will give you a hint , look for all the people who had maxed 2 or more refined resources ( or all of them for that matter ) and a couple raws on top of that ( particularly food) and look at what they are producing now.

Actually I will just spell it out for you, people aren't maxing every resource available to them now, they are specialising in only a couple or even just one resource. Even if they  are on their own producing more of that one resource, the fact that the entire game has had their production capacity limited in such a way means the general supply of resources has been dropped since we are all forced to specialise now into a few resources.

Example, I may have doubled my food production and increased uran production but I've lost all gas, alum and munitions production meaning I can't sell these three refineds and will have to buy them from other people who have specialised into these resources.

So we have decreased supply and increased demand. Given the full impact of this update will probably take a month and most likely a war to be fully seen but I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some of the impact in a couple weeks if not sooner.

 

@Seb

Your figures in the calcuation based on the production price I assume?

Mmm... I kind of agree with this, but kind of don't.  If you're talking about players purely focusing on diversified manufacturing instead of vertical integration, they shouldn't have been producing raw materials to begin with (unless they're super-whales at the 3000 infra/city level such that they had nothing better to do with their improvement slots).  Perhaps the level of raw material imports will increase now since they can build more manufacturing in every sector, but the fact of the matter remains that finished good demand has not been stimulated.  

I'm saying this based around 2000 infra/city such that you used to get 12 refineries, 9 commerce, 2 police stations, 2 hospitals, 1 uranium power plant, and 8 farms with 6 slots to spare (presumably dedicated to hangars to maintain a standing air force with 1 left over).  It worked out perfectly.   Now, the only real gripe is needing more hospitals and commerce, so you'll probably scrap farms, especially since farms are less efficient now and farming players will build a lot more.  You don't have to expand refineries if you don't want to since the refinery production rate has been maintained

If you do expand refineries, then you'll have to deal with a more competitive market while demand still isn't increased (and is probably decreased from more improvement slots being economically rather than militarily occupied).

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7 hours ago, Dubayoo said:

Mmm... I kind of agree with this, but kind of don't.  If you're talking about players purely focusing on diversified manufacturing instead of vertical integration, they shouldn't have been producing raw materials to begin with (unless they're super-whales at the 3000 infra/city level such that they had nothing better to do with their improvement slots).  Perhaps the level of raw material imports will increase now since they can build more manufacturing in every sector, but the fact of the matter remains that finished good demand has not been stimulated.  

I'm saying this based around 2000 infra/city such that you used to get 12 refineries, 9 commerce, 2 police stations, 2 hospitals, 1 uranium power plant, and 8 farms with 6 slots to spare (presumably dedicated to hangars to maintain a standing air force with 1 left over).  It worked out perfectly.   Now, the only real gripe is needing more hospitals and commerce, so you'll probably scrap farms, especially since farms are less efficient now and farming players will build a lot more.  You don't have to expand refineries if you don't want to since the refinery production rate has been maintained

If you do expand refineries, then you'll have to deal with a more competitive market while demand still isn't increased (and is probably decreased from more improvement slots being economically rather than militarily occupied).

Its still early days yet but if you look at Pantheon and TKR's upper tier and we can presume this applies across the entire game generally, you won't find anyone who has reacted to this update with 12 refineries anymore ( if they still do then they are the exception who love the plague) and they still mostly have 6-8 farms operating at the new lower productivity benchmark due to land being nerfed.

That means that just in whales alone , we have seen at least a 33ish % drop in refined supply on the market and therefore a 33% if not more increase in demand since these nations will in future need to buy their refined resources.

Anyone selling refineds at pre update prices right now is simply a fool and anyone buying instead is going to make a boatload of profit once the prices stabilise at a post update medium.

Any gov member with access to their alliance's tax records should be able to look and compare current tax revenue and resource tax ( if they have a resource tax) pre update for themselves. Granted will be differences between AAs based on tier composition but the general trend itself should be easily apparent. 

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3 hours ago, Nemesis said:

Its still early days yet but if you look at Pantheon and TKR's upper tier and we can presume this applies across the entire game generally, you won't find anyone who has reacted to this update with 12 refineries anymore ( if they still do then they are the exception who love the plague) and they still mostly have 6-8 farms operating at the new lower productivity benchmark due to land being nerfed.

That means that just in whales alone , we have seen at least a 33ish % drop in refined supply on the market and therefore a 33% if not more increase in demand since these nations will in future need to buy their refined resources.

Anyone selling refineds at pre update prices right now is simply a fool and anyone buying instead is going to make a boatload of profit once the prices stabilise at a post update medium.

Any gov member with access to their alliance's tax records should be able to look and compare current tax revenue and resource tax ( if they have a resource tax) pre update for themselves. Granted will be differences between AAs based on tier composition but the general trend itself should be easily apparent. 

At the moment, I'd say there's some wisdom to that since manufacturing isn't profitable.  Short-term profitability should be grounded in raw materials and commerce.  Food will be profitable as well for players that maximize their farms since they can build 5 farms for every 2 they had before while production has only decreased at a rate of 3 for every 5.

What I said before was an economic prediction, not financial advice.  It's grounded in the idea that people are stubborn and won't want to overhaul their production in radical ways.  They want to play the way they identify, not the way they're expected to.

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On 7/11/2017 at 9:45 AM, Dubayoo said:

Mmm... I kind of agree with this, but kind of don't.  If you're talking about players purely focusing on diversified manufacturing instead of vertical integration, they shouldn't have been producing raw materials to begin with (unless they're super-whales at the 3000 infra/city level such that they had nothing better to do with their improvement slots).  Perhaps the level of raw material imports will increase now since they can build more manufacturing in every sector, but the fact of the matter remains that finished good demand has not been stimulated.  

I'm saying this based around 2000 infra/city such that you used to get 12 refineries, 9 commerce, 2 police stations, 2 hospitals, 1 uranium power plant, and 8 farms with 6 slots to spare (presumably dedicated to hangars to maintain a standing air force with 1 left over).  It worked out perfectly.   Now, the only real gripe is needing more hospitals and commerce, so you'll probably scrap farms, especially since farms are less efficient now and farming players will build a lot more.  You don't have to expand refineries if you don't want to since the refinery production rate has been maintained

If you do expand refineries, then you'll have to deal with a more competitive market while demand still isn't increased (and is probably decreased from more improvement slots being economically rather than militarily occupied).

2 police stations?  bro crime is super bad, you should have at least maxed them out at 5.

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This is a nice change to make infra more important, but it doesnt not accomplish your stated goal. Your goal is to deflate prices, but you do little to address that. Can't just slightly reduce supply, the real issue is that there is no DEMAND for these resources. This change just means that there are slightly less things that people don't want to buy.

 

If you want to achieve your goal, then make planes 5x aluminum per. Make nuclear plants use 5x the uranium. Make soldiers use 5x the food. Make tanks, planes, and ships cost gas/munitions to upkeep. Increase the demand, increase the price. 

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1 hour ago, Goldie said:

This is a nice change to make infra more important, but it doesnt not accomplish your stated goal. Your goal is to deflate prices, but you do little to address that. Can't just slightly reduce supply, the real issue is that there is no DEMAND for these resources. This change just means that there are slightly less things that people don't want to buy.

 

If you want to achieve your goal, then make planes 5x aluminum per. Make nuclear plants use 5x the uranium. Make soldiers use 5x the food. Make tanks, planes, and ships cost gas/munitions to upkeep. Increase the demand, increase the price. 

It will probably take another war for the changes to really be felt, once the massive reserves are eaten up, the inability of nations to produce everything for themselves and continue to hoarde should increase the demand

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3 hours ago, Felkey said:

It will probably take another war for the changes to really be felt, once the massive reserves are eaten up, the inability of nations to produce everything for themselves and continue to hoarde should increase the demand

The idea is suppose to make us whales actually need the lower and middle tier, as it is we can still produce everything we need ourselves with the difference that we will make less of it, but it doesnt really address the issue as it should imo.

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On 7/13/2017 at 6:49 AM, Sephiroth said:

The idea is suppose to make us whales actually need the lower and middle tier, as it is we can still produce everything we need ourselves with the difference that we will make less of it, but it doesnt really address the issue as it should imo.

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You have 6 refined slots. You literally have only one extra refined slot more than what a 2k infra nation can typically achieve plus a few extra slots for selling resources. (yes, we know a 2k infra nation can get more if they dont produce their own raws and just buy the raws instead hence the "typically")

Now, after the next war you are not  going to be able with that build to satisfy your warchest requirements with native production and you certainly are not going to be selling much resources on the market. You will instead be forced to buy resources in order to satisfy your warchest requirements for every resource except food and uran.

Supply down, demand up.Simple stuff.

 

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7 hours ago, Nemesis said:

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You have 6 refined slots. You literally have only one extra refined slot more than what a 2k infra nation can typically achieve plus a few extra slots for selling resources. (yes, we know a 2k infra nation can get more if they dont produce their own raws and just buy the raws instead hence the "typically")

Now, after the next war you are not  going to be able with that build to satisfy your warchest requirements with native production and you certainly are not going to be selling much resources on the market. You will instead be forced to buy resources in order to satisfy your warchest requirements for every resource except food and uran.

Supply down, demand up.Simple stuff.

 

 

You are forgetting that as the prices rise so will the income for selling resources, nations with 3K infra will reconvert themselves into manufacturers and forget about commerce, when this happens the market will be even more flooded with resources and we will fall into the same situation.

The solution isn't removing resources, he should have added more utility to resources that would make it more likely that you will be buying resources all the time.

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19 hours ago, Sephiroth said:

 

You are forgetting that as the prices rise so will the income for selling resources, nations with 3K infra will reconvert themselves into manufacturers and forget about commerce, when this happens the market will be even more flooded with resources and we will fall into the same situation.

The solution isn't removing resources, he should have added more utility to resources that would make it more likely that you will be buying resources all the time.

Yes, that is a possible event which may happen. However , if it does happen and prices do rise and make it worthwhile for whales to resort to manufacturing instead of commerce , then we will simply see the over supply of resources force the market price of resources down again making it not worthwhile for whales.

Plus, I strongly doubt at your size the revenue lost due to disease will make maxed production a more profitable option. 

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7 hours ago, Nemesis said:

Yes, that is a possible event which may happen. However , if it does happen and prices do rise and make it worthwhile for whales to resort to manufacturing instead of commerce , then we will simply see the over supply of resources force the market price of resources down again making it not worthwhile for whales.

Plus, I strongly doubt at your size the revenue lost due to disease will make maxed production a more profitable option. 

Not me because of my high infra levels but other whales with infra of 2500 or 2000 can make manufacturing worth it, I simply think it would be a lot better to add more utility to resources instead of reducing the amount of resources, for example:

Tanks have an upkeep of 1 steel per day for ever 500 and so on. This way it would make it necessary to actually have a lot of resources or to constantly by from the market 

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Hmm.  I suppose I will share my thoughts on this.  Someone else may have suggested/shared something similar, but I admit I kinda skimmed the middle of this mega thread!

First: I have to admit that even while I dont like every change here, I do appreciate the game trying to get better.

Second: Even though it 'hurts' me, I kind of like the resource deflation.  It makes the resources more valuable and adds some nice element.  I kind of like that when i produce steel, its even more valuable and in demand because it takes more time to produce it.

Third:  the part of this update I would change.  I wouldnt have increased the pollution levels of improvements or the the number of commerce buildings to it 100%.  Or at least not both.  The reasoning being, I like letting smaller or newer players experiment with the different facets of the game more.  Requiring people to sink too much into pollution or commerce limits the slots they can put into experimenting with different resources... which in turn limits how much they can play in the market and removes a way for them to get actively involved.

If it was up to me (lol and it is not) I would make it so players had MORE slots to play with, but each slot generated less resources. So dont amp the pollution/commerce up... because you want players to have those five or so extra slots.  If you want, reduce INCOME entirely... so a nation with 2k infra and 100% commerce earns less money but it takes the same slots as it did before this update..   This let the player still have those slots to play with and experiment with trying different things while curbing inflation.

 

So if that makes sense, my issue is less with the deflation then in the fewer slots. I'm be fine with each mine producing less... with income being even less from commerce.. what have you.  But I liked before not having to sink an extra 5 improvement slots just to maintain 100% commerce, or to keep my pollution reasonable.  Cause now not only do I have deflation but certain avenues of game play are cut off until im bigger.

 

My two cents anyway.

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On ‎7‎/‎16‎/‎2017 at 7:07 AM, Sephiroth said:

 

You are forgetting that as the prices rise so will the income for selling resources, nations with 3K infra will reconvert themselves into manufacturers and forget about commerce, when this happens the market will be even more flooded with resources and we will fall into the same situation.

The solution isn't removing resources, he should have added more utility to resources that would make it more likely that you will be buying resources all the time.

I personally don't think the prices will change that much.....they haven't yet.  As too nations with 3k will "reconvert back to manufactures and forget about commerce".....ummm don't think so.  You only combat Pollution and Disease up to a certain point.  Hell, I have 21 cities and all but my capital are at 2250 Infra.  I have max commerce, max Steel output and 3/5 Gas output.  The raw resources are way cheaper for me to buy to make my manufactured good which will sell for a higher price than the raw stuff.  I'm at a balance point now as it is.......I can go up another 250 Infra and getting my last Hospital would maybe allow me 1 more Refinery.....maybe....or a couple of Farms.  I personally don't think any of the larger folks will/would ever give up their commerce for producing raw or manufactured good.

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