Lets chat about the future.

[Prefontaine]

Current the treaty web is a tangled mess. Everyone's inside of everyone else in the best/worst orgy you always thought you wanted until you ended up finding yourself in a sandwich you didn't sign up for.

 

 

Taken a few days ago or so

 

 

Most war recently wars have effectively been fueled by Mensa or Syndicate related aggression and/or plots. The last non-major war (I think) that wasn't majorly fueled by them was the SK trying to backstab Rose one. Now I want to emphasize, the following is mostly speculation. So here we go..

 

Mensa doesn't have the political capital to make another push, at least against their main target (Rose). Their direct allies are pretty weak from taking heavy hits in the last few wars (Guardian/SK) and I've a feeling Syndicate is going to be taking their foot off the pedal in terms of trying to take down anyone else. Recently BK's sphere got a bit stronger, and if they could bring UPN over to them and to get them to cut their ties (does UPN ever cut ties?) then we might be able to see a sphere form out of that with reasonable power..

 

From that bit of speculation comes my question, and the point of this thread. Where does the next war come from? I'm not talking about everyone rolling GPA, or Arrgh, I'm talking about major alliances activating treaty clauses to enter a growing conflict. If my speculation is correct with regards to Mensa not having the chips to play a strong enough hand, and Syndicate aren't wishing for a major conflict starring Syndicate, then everyone else is strongly tied to everyone else.. Sure, one side could hit some of the fringes of the other side, but once you get to the main pieces either they will convince their direct ties to not be attacked so they can bypass the MD requirements. They will simply ignore their allies because they don't want to fight their other allies. Or they will go Alpha and declare war via chaining in with a non-chaining oA clause against their allies allies. Historically Rose/VE/UPN have not been very aggressive (yes UPN and Rose both started wars recently, but those were the first in a year), so denizens of Orbis..

 

Who starts the next war? Where will a treaty break happen in the chain of MD-hell? Will someone go full Alpha, if so who?

 

The following spoiler is for Alpha, and Alpha only.

 

Just a joke. Don't take it so seriously. Here have some nigri-boobs

 

[Yosodog]

Mass neutrality for all and a peaceful world where our kids can grow up and become doctors or lawyers instead of being drafted into the military and being brutally gang banged in all holes just so their leaders can say they lost the most amount of soldiers?

 

BK will start the next war. MARK MY WORDS. Probably not but if I'm wrong then I can make up some bullshit excuse

[Kurdanak]

All I know is that the UPN-BK shall never be cancelled. Every time it goes into the fire and gets burned, it seems to come out stronger.

[Prefontaine]

Mass neutrality for all and a peaceful world where our kids can grow up and become doctors or lawyers instead of being drafted into the military and being brutally gang banged in all holes just so their leaders can say they lost the most amount of soldiers?

 

BK will start the next war. MARK MY WORDS. Probably not but if I'm wrong then I can make up some bullshit excuse

 

Yoso, if you give this thread a serious, thought out, relevant, and on topic reply which addresses the questions raised in the OP along with rationales. I will give you the dankest of memes. 

[LordStrum]

Yoso, if you give this thread a serious, thought out, relevant, and on topic reply which addresses the questions raised in the OP along with rationales. I will give you the dankest of memes. 

literally impossible

[Yosodog]

All I know is that the UPN-BK shall never be cancelled. Every time it goes into the fire and gets burned, it seems to come out stronger.

 

We really do have this kind of love/hate relationship. While the relationship was very strained recently, we talked it over with Emmad and we're both willing to move forward and see where it takes us.

 

Yoso, if you give this thread a serious, thought out, relevant, and on topic reply which addresses the questions raised in the OP along with rationales. I will give you the dankest of memes. 

 

*sigh* But if I post a decent response people will think I'm not all about dank memes and such. I'll attempt to do so, but keep in mind I'll have to throw in some ayy lmao's to keep my reputation.

 

lol I actually started writing shit and then realized I was bull shitting a lot. So I'll make a quick tl;dr of what I wrote:

 

NPO will try to make moves alongside VE, tS/Mensa sphere will stay fairly the same, BK might make a move to separate themselves from tS' grasp far in the future, Paragon is moving alliances to be their meatshields, UPN should just join Paragon already, tC is dying, DEIC will solidify themselves as a Paragon meatshield, and that's it.

 

No war between Rose/Mensa for a while I think. People will take out their blue balls on GPA and then it'll be a couple months before a real war happens.

 

I think there's two problems with everyone right now. 1) There's just not enough alliances that are actually competent and have a high enough score to make a difference and 2) The competent and major alliances are comfortable where they are. The only way FA will get interesting is if a couple of alliances break off and form their own sphere by taking a couple of alliances from Paragon's side and tS/Mensa's side. Other than that, we'll stay in the same situation as we are in because alliances don't have the balls/willpower to do anything about it. I don't blame them though, why get bum !@#$ed just to make politics more interesting and then once you get !@#$ed you're irrelevant? If BK were to move forward with any drastic FA moves, we'd have to have quite a few chips aligned to make it work. We have a couple things we're thinking of, but we're playing the slow game.

 

Imagine that... BK (possibly OO) ends the stagnating dog shit that is politics and spices things up. Who would've thunk it? Though I think we'll see NPO making moves before that.

 

literally impossible

 

!@#$ I make essays on this shit sometimes. 

[Auctor]

I've been told that we're going to have flying cars and smellivision.

[Keegoz]

I agree with Yoso over NPO making the next move.

[Prefontaine]

I agree with Yoso over NPO making the next move.

What kind of move? Muddying up the web more? Making people cut ties to solidify an NPO sphere? Or do you believe NPO will be the driving force behind the next major war?

[Kastor]

There will be peace for awhile, until May-June at least. NPO won't do shit. Mensa is making an effort to match Rose in cities. tS doesn't have the power to knock ParaCov down. I disagree that UPN and DEIC would ever split, at least while Emmad is in office. I think Alpha will start the next war and attack tS and we'll have round 3 of the war.

[Phiney]

There will be peace for awhile, until May-June at least. NPO won't do shit. Mensa is making an effort to match Rose in cities. tS doesn't have the power to knock ParaCov down. I disagree that UPN and DEIC would ever split, at least while Emmad is in office. I think Alpha will start the next war and attack tS and we'll have round 3 of the war.

 

Next war in 3+ years confirmed

[Stormrideron]

According to my prediction based on the relationships and the diplomatic ties between the leaders of alliances.

 

UPN will form a Bloc with VE and Rose which will become known as the ParaCovenant Bloc (PC Bloc). The Obsidan Order becomes an independent Bloc and cuts ties with t$ to avoid risking the same conflict of attacking allies' allies - because that is what put BK and UPN in diplomatic tension. NPO aligns toward VE but remains out of ParaCovenant Bloc as it would require a lot of mutual trust and respect. Pantheon remains a swinging alliance that will align toward either t$ or Rose or VE depends on the situation of the war. However, mark my words, if Pantheon chose a side during the 5th World War, expect Pantheon to align toward a certain side and burn the bridges with their side' enemies.

 

Fifth World War might involve a three-way wars to compete for supremacy and diplomatic tensions. It will be test of mutual trust and respect.

 

ParaCovenant Bloc

UPN

VE

Rose

 

Allies

Alpha

Sparta

TLF

Phoenix

DEIC

NPO

Shurkien

Fark

Cornerstone

SWF

 

Mensyndisphere

t$

Mensa HQ

Guardian

SK

The Coalition

 

Allies

 

Terminus Est

The Chola

TKP

Roz Wei

Charming Friends (Since CF broke up with TLF, this has caused CF to align toward t$ as protectrate)

 

OO Bloc

BK

BoC

TKR

NK

 

Allies

 

Amaterasu

Iberia

 

Neutral Swinging Alliance

Pantheon

 

This has concluded my prediction for 5th World War. ParaCovenant by far have the most power and the split of OO and Mensynd have diminished the strength of Mensyndisphere.

Edited March 15, 2016 by Stormrideron

[Andrezj Kolarov]

Mass neutrality for all and a peaceful world where our kids can grow up and become doctors or lawyers instead of being drafted into the military and being brutally gang banged in all holes just so their leaders can say they lost the most amount of soldiers?

This is perfect. New GPA recruitment message.

[War Hawk]

Neutral Swinging Alliance

Pantheon

 

[Buorhann]

Honestly, I don't see NPO making a move yet.  I see either Rose/VE/UPN sphere making a move or Mensa/Syndicate making a move still.  The next conflict will roughly be the same setting, just possibly a different approach ( That is if Mensa/Syndicate make the first move, otherwise it'll be the same stuff with Paracovenant making the first move ).

 

I just don't see NPO being aggressive until they get an idea of who's who.  After the next world war though?  I can see NPO taking a chance to alter the environment, as it'll give them a better idea to plan.

[Chapsie]

People will take out their blue balls on GPA

pls no

[Boony]

 

Most war recently wars have effectively been fueled by Mensa or Syndicate related aggression and/or plots. The last non-major war (I think) that wasn't majorly fueled by them was the SK trying to backstab Rose one. 

 

Hey hey hey, Oktoberfest was not our fault. 

[Buorhann]

Looking at the treaty web, you'll notice there's clearly two sides there.   There's VE/Rose/UPN, the large numerical side, and then there's the military dominant MenSynBK side.  Keep in mind, the signing of VE/Rose/UPN prevents ( Or rather slows down ) any separation on the Syndicate side of the sphere, and forces Syndicate to keep ties with various alliances to maintain some numbers to match the wide variant spread of the top 3 alliances in the game.  Or, looking at it a different way, the maintaining ties of Syndisphere and their activity keeps the top 3 alliances tied up.

 

Even if BK/OO was to "separate" themselves, once a conflict occurs - they'll be involved with Syndicate in one way or another, unless they risk severing their positive influence on that side of the sphere.

 

Whereas, if VE/Rose/UPN were to separate, that'd just weaken them to the military dominance that is MenSynBK side of the sphere.

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Mensa hasn't really pushed for much FA change, outside of trying to draw out a few alliances.  They could still play a major part in shifting the treaty web, but I think they're content with keeping the ties they have so that they don't make the game stagnate ( Is Mensa's ties to SK/Guardian the longest ties in the game?  Or is that Rose/VE?  UPN/DEIC? ).  The one thing that Mensa has over everybody else though?  The leader has a clear goal that everybody knows that could alter the treaty web.

 

OO/BK making a move is a interesting thought.  Serious though, BK/OO has been relatively reactionary, so if they make any moves - this would be new territory for them, but I'd hate for them to feel pressured to make moves due to the stagnation of the game between wars.  The recent pull of BoC from Covenant was interesting though.

 

NPO is still relatively new to the scene and although people give them props from their knowledge of them in (That terrible game that is totally irrelevant and I shouldn't be bringing it up anyways), NPO still has to figure out the new dynamic of alliances here.  I don't see them making a major move until after the next world war, so that they have a better idea of who's who based on their actions then.  Even then, if people are waiting for them to change the game, that will be a while.

 

Rose/VE/UPN will not separate their ties anytime soon.  So I doubt much will change with them other than potentially starting another war, but even that is a stretch considering they've been pushed back in the recent wars.

 

I still see Rose/VE/UPN and MenSyn being the major players so far, but it is nice to see a few alliances willing to change things around.

Edited March 15, 2016 by Buorhann

[greatkitteh]

Thing is, having a MDOAP with both Ve and TS makes making moves hard in this game for NPO or Partheon for the same reason UPN would have a difficulty invading BOC.

[Wayne]

We have nothing to fight for. Its no wonder that the 'politics' of the game stagnate when we have nothing but IRC and PM arguments between alliance leaders that fuel the 'tension' and the action.

[Buorhann]

We have nothing to fight for. Its no wonder that the 'politics' of the game stagnate when we have nothing but IRC and PM arguments between alliance leaders that fuel the 'tension' and the action.

 

Yeah, true.  Also the fact that people form new alliances and immediately throw treaty ties out there.  Rarely does anybody take a risk and just fight their own battles/wars.

[Saru]

I don't know what the obsession is with having a war every couple of months. The game is still relatively young and is still maturing. Many alliances are joining from other realms, and gaining traction/growing well, I can see the future getting pretty interesting with some new big players/alliances involved.

[Buorhann]

I don't know.  Maybe because war is literally the most involved part of the game for everybody?  Whereas politics are only played by a select few members of each respective alliance?

[Keegoz]

What kind of move? Muddying up the web more? Making people cut ties to solidify an NPO sphere? Or do you believe NPO will be the driving force behind the next major war?

The last two I would say are likely.

 

 

This game has yet to really stagnate for a long period of time tbf, people eventually get bored and feel they are ready enough to start something.

[Sweeeeet Ronny D]

It comes down to time, and someone doing something stupid.  If no-one is dumb in the next few months, then it turns into who gets bored and wants to start a war.