Saru

What happened to Shellhound?

PS: 2 more pages before we beat https://politicsandwar.com/forums/index.php?/topic/9081-a-statment-from-hansarius-and-the-united-purple-nations/and 4 more pages before we beat https://politicsandwar.com/forums/index.php?/topic/12884-syndicate-press-release-kangaroos-meat-sales-increase-by-200/ (credit to Betulius). Let's go! #MakeHistory

I haven't said that Alpha is the sole reason our side got destroyed. I have said that Alpha entering had negative consequences for our side. I also said that either Alpha or Arrgh not entering would of caused issues for them, and made it significantly harder to push those terms onto us (how it would of played out, we will not know, because of the different variables involved at the time). By definition that's a different outcome to the war. And like in my original point, I said that if BOTH Alpha and Arrgh did not enter, then I am confident in saying that there would of been no reps, and the war would of been a lot more interesting. I suppose the concept of nuance just flies over your head though. I've already said multiple times in multiple threads that the planning and execution of it all was poor. That was never denied, and not the sole point of discussion. A relatively 'bad' situation caused by those factors can be easily exacerbated into one of no hope by other factors -- such as Arrgh and Alpha entering.

With first mover advantage, I don't see why not.

Well I don't know what happened, but my point is moreso focused on the criticism of their entry. They literally came in just a day later than the first actual allies of yours that countered us, and Alpha declared on the same day as Guardian. Even in the scheme of the whole war, there were other allies of yours that came in later than them.

It was 2 days later than the first counter on us. VE hitting someone else instead of Arrgh is very likely had Alpha not stepped in -- possibly drawing in some others such as Cornerstone if anyone countered them, Rose somewhat hinted that they may do something -- but Alpha entering cut off any communications of it, so I don't know how serious they were. Again, you are assuming there would not of been a fear of retaliation because it was in large part Alpha's entrance that ensured there wouldn't be retaliation. Not sure if I understood you correctly here but the Covenant was not at its current set up. Like I said it was a lot more active, on all fronts. We are not discussing a case of all things being equal if Alpha did not enter, because the point is the situation wouldn't of been equal... You cannot objectively say that you would of been able to drag down everybody, when you don't know which other alliances could of entered/where VE would of been placed (perhaps BoC wouldn't have surrendered, or VE caused someone else to surrender). You just don't know... and like Pre if you are claiming you do, then you are being dishonest imo, or alternatively making an honest mistake by having a narrow minded view (in the sense that you only focus on the Alpha damage dealt only, instead of how the war would of played out by considering all variables). Obviously I am not ignoring his views. Just look at the last few pages. I didn't say we would of won had either Alpha/Arrgh not entered. I said it may of been a possibility had both not entered. What I said was that if either of them did not enter, then it would of likely been a stalemate -- in the sense that you would not of been able to force those type of reps on us. This whole narrative about Alpha being shit and entering late seems fishy to me too, given that they entered only a day later than your actual allies. Your biggest coup in that war was to convince Arrgh that we are some sort of hegemoney, and take the money to war, followed by being helped by Alpha.

Obviously you cannot avoid that when discussing what would of happened if something else had happened -- especially when there are multiple variables involved in it. The point is that some are not recognising those variables, and have a skewed and limited perspective. There's nothing wrong with disagreeing if you are all in positions of having the same knowledge of what went on. But making claims that something objectively would not of made a difference/not allowing for any possibility otherwise, despite not knowing as much context as some people (from various fronts) claiming otherwise who are in a better position to judge, makes you ignorant at the least...

This doesn't really mean anything to me. You could say the same about Pre being disgruntled ever since he quit Alpha, and taking the opportunity to try and shit on them/Steve when he gets the chance. Something I have seen far more off than Alpha claiming how great they have done. That's not something I argued... I said that UPN/DEIC had the upper tier under control, and with VE being free to help out and utilise their fresh upper tier too on better targets (which likely would of been the case with Alpha not entering), then the updeclares and dragging people down would of been a lot more difficult than you are saying it would be. To paint the picture that it would of been a breeze in the park,and just extend war by a few days, and claim you would of been able to demand those sorts of reps isn't being completely honest I feel. At that point both UPN/DEIC were also significantly more active than we are now too, as were VE, so while you had an advantage in being better coordinated, the disparity between activity levels was not as high as it is now. He has usually been involved in the planning of the war, on the macro level. You don't need to be giving out targets to understand what is going on. In fact I would say that planning the war on a coalition wide scale, listening to what your milcom is saying and taking the political context of the situation into account gives you a much more balanced view. Partisan and Placentica were both involved in the higher level planning, I would guess that Pre was not. I am arguing with someone who loves themselves so much (and the sound of their voice for that matter), that they cannot admit when they are wrong. I don't doubt that he knows the war system well, I doubt his understanding of what we are actually talking about and that is the outcome that Alpha had on the war -- which includes their actual war contributions (which are still being underplayed) as well as other things that could of materialised, such as VE acting differently (and maybe even CS then), and perhaps Rose helping in some capacity. So I don't know who has the better understanding of the war system, but I think both Placentica and Partisan have a better understanding of the war in question. My point is that you don't judge the outcome on the war purely based on mechanics in an isolated case. Like I said, these things have knock on effects. You have to consider the whole context. And either Arrgh or Alpha not entering would of been significant enough that you wouldn't of been able to force those kind of reps on us imo. Of course this is a value judgement, but saying that there was no chance of it just shows ignorance on the part of the people who are saying it. Just the point that other alliances who may of entered, did not (as a result of Alpha's declaration), had an effect on the war as a whole. So even without destroying a pixel, there was a significant effect. And I still feel like you are undervaluing the actual damage they did.

Still wrong, and anyone with eyes and basic reading comprehension will be able to see that. How about we go with the leader of the winning coalition -- Partisan, the leader of your own alliance at the time -- Placentica, as well as the alliance in question UPN/me. Reading must be hard when you are in love with only your own words, so I guess I will extend a hand to you: So what I had said and repeated, multiple times. It's funnier seeing you get salty when you are proven to be outright and flat out wrong. Please do continue showing your psychological complexes to everyone though. It really says a lot about you that you can't concede something as inconsequential as this. I do have something that will make your ego feel better again: BINGO! You are certainly right there.

You think it would of been a lot easier than it was going to be. Had VE committed their resources to the coalition -- as oppose to just Arrgh, and with DEIC's and UPN's uppers going strong, you would of had a battle on your hands. And you wouldn't of won without Arrgh & Alpha imo -- certainly wouldn't get those reps. Stalemate was the most likely.

I guess you just can't stand to accept you are wrong, so it has become self-delusion at this point. Funny how multiple people involved in the organisation of the war from multiple angles seem to know less than you. You are as ignorant as can be.

That's the point, it was very few for an alliance as top tier heavy and an alliance who had so much time to prepare as... Alpha. And we are talking about their impact on the war. Had they not entered, there wouldn't of been a case of our upper tier and DEIC's (who Guardian already admitted they struggled with) being very few to any of the alliances we faced. It is all relative, as your own post implies, and that "few" (which was still a sizable amount) wouldn't of been regarded the same to the other coalition without Alpha. Updeclares would of been made a lot more difficult with VE likely to have been tasked with someone else as oppose to Arrgh. I still don't understand why you are viewing it in isolation to everything else. That's not how coalition wide warfare/politics works. These things have knockon effects, which in turn have their own knockon effects... You have someone who was in UPN gov telling you that if Alpha had not entered it would of likely been a stalemate without reps being imposed due to VE most likely taking someone else (among other things that it effected -- such as things that may of materialised with Rose), you have one of the leaders of the opposite coalition saying the same, and you also have the leader of Alpha agreeing. All of whom clearly have more information and were involved in the planning of the war from the different angles, and have a better idea of went on, and what could of happened had Alpha not entered. Yet you still think you are onto something and continue to view it in isolation, viewing it from your personal perspective, as oppose to talk about it in the grand scheme of the war -- which was my initial point that you quoted. Alpha's entrance did have a significant impact in swinging the war in tS's favor... So you are wrong. Not that your ego would ever let you admit it. So just continue making yourself look like an idiot I guess. Back to my original point: Arrgh and Alpha most likely secured the win for their side, because either of them not entering would of changed the dynamics of the war significantly imo, and both of them entering left us with virtually no way back.

Yeah, I would agree with that.

Right, but why are we discussing mechanics in an isolated case when it obviously has several significant knock off effects in the grander scheme of things -- which was my original point in regards to saying if Arrgh and Alpha did not enter, it would of been interesting to see how the war turned out, and whether your slight advantage in activity, and considerably more coordination would of overcame our advantage of first strike. And even purely mechanically, 10 nations or so near max military nearly a round into the war is no joke to take out. We're well aware of Placentica not liking us or DEIC. Not sure if it was paranoia or something else -- as we had heard from a few people they were concerned we would hit them at some point. Pubstomper had told me Alpha wouldn't enter, and that Rose were doing all they can to make sure of it (and same with Arrgh) -- so it squashed the little bit of doubts we had at first, causing the surprise later on when both did enter.

Alpha entering wiped out our upper tier quickly. Part of the reason VE went for Arrgh was because Alpha had enterred (we didn't think either Arrgh/Alpha would initially), and we already thought we couldn't win the war -- and tried to do best by our ally, while still getting relief. So if Alpha did not enter, it's possible that VE would of took someone else more meaningful as then we would of had more to fight for. There were also some talks with Pubstomper/Rose over some things at the time, but with Alpha enterring, it cut that off. Again I feel like you and Pre are underestimting the impact, as 10 or so near max military nations a few days into the war are no joke when the other side don't have the same, and I feel like you are also not considering the knock off effects it may of had. e.g. perhaps with Alpha not entering, and VE hitting someone else/getting countered, CS would of entered? There are a lot of possibilities. So the eventual downdeclares you and Pre are talking about weren't a guarantee, and you are undervaluing the job Alpha did. Arrgh & Alpha won you that war imo.

It's coalition warfare with several variables involved... You quoted my point talking about the war at large, I assumed its a continuation of that discussion, and you can't just talk about Alpha in isolation in that case, it has effects throughout the entire war, other fronts, and other things that may or may not of materialised...

They offered to. I am not going to disclose the specific reasons, but let's just say it was a mixture of us wanting to be a good ally, an influential VE official going missing and an overreaction at Arrgh because they had hit us.

Not even sure what those empty quotes are supposed to mean lol...

Maybe you are the one not reading then. You referenced a point where I explicitly said Arrgh and Alpha... Then continued to say that we would of lost on that front. Well I am saying I disagree, because had Arrgh not entered, VE would of hit elsewhere. DEIC and UPN were winning in the "high tiers" prior to Alpha's entry (I brought in Guardian because you hit together, and they wouldn't of been able to do it by themselves). Just because you didn't find slots does not mean we were in all losing wars in those slots, also with VE's involvement the updeclares you are saying would of happened would of been made difficult. There were also certain discussions we had with Pubstomper/Rose, which ended once Alpha entered (although who knows how they would of actually materialised).

Yes they were. Arrgh were decimated by VE -- and wanted to surrender at one point. We didn't let them as it was the only leverage we had. Issue was that the coalition we faced obviously didn't care about them. Which is understandable. When I am telling you VE would of been free to hit someone else, I am not discussing a maybe, it would of happened... Arrgh coming in took us by surprise. And there were other reasons on why we settled on them hitting Arrgh, but the fact remains if Arrgh did not enter, VE would of hit someone else.

I think your analysis was pretty fair, but my question is still this... had the two alliances without treaty obligations not jumped into the war (Alpha and Arrgh). It would of ment Arrgh wouldn't provide the relief for the mid tier of SK and tS. UPN's upper tier would still of been functioning, as Guardian weren't going to be able to wipe us out by themselves I feel (and maybe you can clarify the rumour I heard that Guardian were hessitant to enter, but did cause Alpha did). So DEIC would of been able to have an easier time with Guardian than they did at first, given UPN's free upper tiers. Then you would be relying on updeclares, but we would have VE coming in fresh to help... Do you think you would of been able to impose those terms on us?. Genuine question btw. I don't think so.

I know what happened. They would of helped elsewhere had Arrgh not entered.

It wasn't just "a few" nations that were effected by Arrgh and Alpha entering. It had big ramifications on the entire war. The few that you are referring to are the ones in UPN that still had virtually max builds, and that Alpha and Guardian together had taken out as they were fresh, and I don't think just Guardian could of done the same at the time -- from what I heard Guardian (or maybe it was another alliance, can't remember which) weren't keen on the war and it was Alpha's entry that swayed them for it. A lot of our slots were taken -- but we weren't losing in all of them. So it's not like the war had already been decided at this point. Another key thing was, with Arrgh's unexpected entrance, VE was put onto them. Had they not enterred, VE would of been able to provide massive relief in other areas. I feel like you are looking at the war purely from the perspective you were in and wanting to find targets, as opposed to considering the outcome on a coalition wide level.

I didn't see it. I am pretty sure tab I had open only had the message I referenced, or maybe I just missed it, certainly wasn't intentional. I read your posts now, and whilst you say you conceded the point... you really didn't. You still went on to talk about how "statistically" it was even. Well if by statistically you just mean score, then yeah, it was more or less even. If you were going to be honest about all of the meaningful stats, you would admit that you were at an advantage in a lot of the wars. Not that I am saying that advantage discounts what you successfully carried on a planning/coordination level -- because we've been in positions of advantages (I would argue before Oktoberfest UPN was probably in the strongest position the game had ever seen, besides arguably Guardian in the early days) and didn't make it count.

Well "few" because we were already involved in a coalition wide war, and the "few" targets you had found were the ones we were relying on. Sometimes its fine margins that decide things, as the elimination of those guys on our upper tier ment that we were losing out on dishing out a lot more damage (not from just their attacks, but all of the other people who could consequently then attack and so on). I don't know if I am recalling it correctly, but from memory I think we on a coalition level, were winning in the lower tiers, and the high tiers. On a coalition wide level, there is no way they would of been able to impose those kind of terms on us imo if Arrgh and Alpha did not enter, it would of been a stalemate -- which would of had very different consequences for the game. (as would us not of attacking in the first place, but that's another topic lol)